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decision."},"analysis":{"schemaVersion":1,"subject":{"engine":"metadao","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"D3dbiHmUYceurHbjRZJuUvnRrGgGcHhHDx6LkLVh37E9"},"evaluatedAt":"2026-10-19T09:12:06.529Z","cutoffAt":"2026-10-19T09:12:06.529Z","evidence":[{"id":"d3fe0175f8de6a2e9ea0662a539e4854166bb3ce487824ef0d5a6fcfba9b920b","source":"retained-input:d3fe0175f8de6a2e9ea0662a539e4854166bb3ce487824ef0d5a6fcfba9b920b","revision":"d3fe0175f8de6a2e9ea0662a539e4854166bb3ce487824ef0d5a6fcfba9b920b","digest":"d3fe0175f8de6a2e9ea0662a539e4854166bb3ce487824ef0d5a6fcfba9b920b","observedAt":null,"knownAt":"2026-10-19T09:12:06.529Z"}],"results":[{"id":"disclosures","instrument":{"id":"disclosures","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"partial","freshness":"unknown","reason":"","evidenceIds":["d3fe0175f8de6a2e9ea0662a539e4854166bb3ce487824ef0d5a6fcfba9b920b"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution."],"payload":{"kind":"disclosures","fields":[{"id":"proposal-account","label":"Proposal account","state":"present","note":"Confirmed onchain at the address shown."},{"id":"proposal-class","label":"Proposal class","state":"present","note":"Declared team class."},{"id":"decision-threshold","label":"Decision threshold","state":"present","note":"Configured at ▼ 3.00%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close stamps are on the account."},{"id":"proposer-stake","label":"Proposer stake","state":"missing","note":"No stake amount decodes from the account."},{"id":"proposer-identity","label":"Proposer address","state":"present","note":"The proposing address is on the account."},{"id":"execution-account","label":"Execution account","state":"present","note":"A Squads execution account is linked."},{"id":"decision-market","label":"Decision market","state":"present","note":"Conditional pass/fail markets are launched and decoding."}]}},{"id":"participation","instrument":{"id":"participation","version":"2.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"unknown","reason":"","evidenceIds":["d3fe0175f8de6a2e9ea0662a539e4854166bb3ce487824ef0d5a6fcfba9b920b"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants.","Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":5,"wallets":3,"sizedVolumeUsd":1533.260863,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":96.80419678200577,"topThreeWalletSharePct":100,"multiPoolWallets":0}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"unknown","reason":"","evidenceIds":["d3fe0175f8de6a2e9ea0662a539e4854166bb3ce487824ef0d5a6fcfba9b920b"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"payload":{"kind":"market","prices":{"fail":0.432169949932,"pass":0.433006552791},"defaultOption":"fail","thresholdPct":-3,"leader":"pass","leaderMarginPct":0.19358191358090437,"selectedByRule":"pass","recordedSelection":null,"provisional":true}},{"id":"selection-rule","instrument":{"id":"selection-rule","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"unknown","reason":"","evidenceIds":["d3fe0175f8de6a2e9ea0662a539e4854166bb3ce487824ef0d5a6fcfba9b920b"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics."],"payload":{"kind":"rule-observations","observations":[{"id":"negative-threshold","headline":"Pass wins below fail — threshold ▼ 3.00%","detail":"The configured threshold is negative: the pass market still passes printing less than 3.00% below the fail market. The rule is disclosed; pricing what it is worth is not this lane's claim."},{"id":"team-class-lower-bar","headline":"Team class carries the lower bar","detail":"This window runs under the team option (▼ 3.00%), below the non-team option (▲ 3.00%). The class declaration is proposer-controlled and moves the pass rule."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"unknown","reason":"","evidenceIds":["d3fe0175f8de6a2e9ea0662a539e4854166bb3ce487824ef0d5a6fcfba9b920b"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Retained observations do not establish what happened between reads or why prices changed."],"payload":{"kind":"closing-window","leaderChanged":false,"outcomeFlipped":false,"enteredWith":"pass","closedWith":"pass","closingReads":23}},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"unknown","reason":"no wallet staked this proposal's launch","evidenceIds":["d3fe0175f8de6a2e9ea0662a539e4854166bb3ce487824ef0d5a6fcfba9b920b"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"late-window-outcome-steering","instrument":{"id":"late-window-outcome-steering","version":"3.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"unknown","reason":"needs the closed window's trades and the token's own price after the close, which are read once the window has closed","evidenceIds":["d3fe0175f8de6a2e9ea0662a539e4854166bb3ce487824ef0d5a6fcfba9b920b"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"wash-volume-alignment-inflation","instrument":{"id":"wash-volume-alignment-inflation","version":"4.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"unknown","reason":"","evidenceIds":["d3fe0175f8de6a2e9ea0662a539e4854166bb3ce487824ef0d5a6fcfba9b920b"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety."],"payload":{"kind":"detector","vectorId":"wash-volume-alignment-inflation","classification":"NO-MATCH","matched":0,"evaluated":5,"indicators":[{"id":"paired-branch-executions","matched":false,"evidence":"0 wallets traded more than one option's market after netting arbitrage; none round-tripped the minimum turnover"},{"id":"fixed-size-cluster","matched":false,"evidence":"no fixed-size cadence cluster from a wallet showing wash evidence"},{"id":"near-neutral-net","matched":false,"evidence":"no wallet ended near-neutral after high turnover net of arbitrage"},{"id":"arb-frequency-band","matched":false,"evidence":"no wallet traded inside the frequency band net of arbitrage pairs"},{"id":"stripped-tilt-shift","matched":false,"evidence":"tilt 1.00 → 1.00 (shift 0.00); 0 wallets showing wash 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quality."],"payload":{"kind":"history","cutoffAt":"2026-10-17T08:56:59.000Z","decisions":[{"id":"CYdZd78jm4iH6XBDRdSTHdpkvp4F81y3YL4reeGTaxfD","closedAt":"2026-10-12T09:12:10.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"passed"},{"id":"2gp6SCEYhMRymhA6BrwxYkxr1zmfCgHnsoxT5hXNWV4r","closedAt":"2026-09-18T19:29:08.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"passed"},{"id":"GmifYiQGc7nE6PSbWQVmPFq2HCkrCeJwvwwu6EsvrHyB","closedAt":"2026-09-11T21:16:49.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"passed"},{"id":"8sysa3XPrvKPmUA4qoZCn9h4vp7Mb45Ynezg542nui8Q","closedAt":"2026-08-03T18:32:31.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"failed"},{"id":"2a5qE2E8pSv2EqHAfDvAuKHqMpMubBVjGPZr7bChiZKy","closedAt":"2026-05-04T20:16:01.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"passed"},{"id":"3seyB3i5bLQcUReaQoLkgwkNbVH7U7nnfiAFVaNawU6F","closedAt":"2026-01-17T09:02:13.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"passed"},{"id":"71nYHjLpgY7evn9G4UaGCBd6cYHpGWzrzd3ESs2KUduG","closedAt":"2025-11-15T18:34:47.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"passed"}]}},{"id":"measured-outcome","instrument":{"id":"measured-outcome","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"unknown","reason":"This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.","evidenceIds":["d3fe0175f8de6a2e9ea0662a539e4854166bb3ce487824ef0d5a6fcfba9b920b"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null}],"interpretations":[{"id":"interpretation:market-selection","statement":"The observed prices would select pass: the leading challenger's lead over the default is 0.19%, against a -3.00% threshold.","basis":"derivation","resultIds":["market-selection"],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"revisitWhen":["A new time-weighted price observation or a change to the selection rule."]}]},"execution":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/proposal-execution.json","state":"executed","at":"2026-10-19T08:58:01.000Z","evidence":["RaXZK9xGAwxCa7w5TgkzeR78Mhz97xzEs7N3eNKEAAJ","Hg1NRVwWYV4sDU5YYGsdL6iMrP2YghGW19AMwtvAHkRb","5bsbaDWtYPJJXV7WLsVrkZ9P4BBWeEToNBp7cNRDFpeh5nMpstj1vUuRNKABhC4pNKBAf5UnfJ6rH9Pg2BH3trmD"],"note":"The Squads transaction executed, and its calls match the stored vault instructions."},"outcome":{"status":"recorded","kind":"token-value","measure":"token price","unit":"USD","closedAt":"2026-10-19T08:56:59.000Z","series":{"lane":{"chain":"solana","marketKind":"spot","marketId":"umbra","series":"price-usd"},"since":"2026-10-19T08:56:59.000Z","path":"/api/organization-history?slug=umbra&series=price-usd"},"checkpoints":[{"status":"recorded","checkpoint":"close","target":"2026-10-19T08:56:59.000Z","at":"2026-10-19T08:45:15.542Z","value":0.4232010493340578,"source":"solana/spot/umbra/price-usd","provenance":"api:organization-quotes"},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"1d","target":"2026-10-20T08:56:59.000Z","reason":"Not yet reached: due 2026-10-20T08:56:59.000Z."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"7d","target":"2026-10-26T08:56:59.000Z","reason":"Not yet reached: due 2026-10-26T08:56:59.000Z."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","target":"2026-11-18T08:56:59.000Z","reason":"Not yet reached: due 2026-11-18T08:56:59.000Z."}]},"impact":{"status":"recorded","forecast":{"selectedOptionId":"pass","referenceOptionId":"fail","reference":"default","selectedPrice":0.43296516785,"referencePrice":0.432117272402,"forecastPct":0.19621882811737823,"basis":"Final pass and fail TWAPs at finalization (2026-10-19T08:58:01.000Z), normalized conditional prices.","source":"trade-ledger/metadao/D3dbiHmUYceurHbjRZJuUvnRrGgGcHhHDx6LkLVh37E9/finalization (FinalizeProposalEvent 2iMXYshTuf7Xb1vRQL1327dsfyZZgNSGrHYmBdP7s89R71mViMJrwGiRJQHL6LoQJ2tVadckrZdRoUYjEWvU6rSb#0)"},"realised":[{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"1d","reason":"Not yet reached: due 2026-10-20T08:56:59.000Z."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"7d","reason":"Not yet reached: due 2026-10-26T08:56:59.000Z."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","reason":"Not yet reached: due 2026-11-18T08:56:59.000Z."}]},"capital":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/decision-capital.json","state":"moved","movements":[{"kind":"transfer","asset":"PRVT6TB7uss3FrUd2D9xs2zqDBsa3GbMJMwCQsgmeta","symbol":null,"rawAmount":"546890000000","decimals":6,"from":"3bVJzGdxGaF1vaCep4ruSEKdKJ7PfK9H6Xr3P1LiPSZg","fromOwner":"6VsC8PuKkXm5xo54c2vbrAaSfQipkpGHqNuKTxXFySx6","to":"EMjsgXR95YeqSLSxZDyXjdvudqqaXJG1Ru4jVT5U8dDT","toOwner":"23rNx16F46JMq58wK8AZH6PoicBdBiZWUAkSV1aFujMo","transaction":"5bsbaDWtYPJJXV7WLsVrkZ9P4BBWeEToNBp7cNRDFpeh5nMpstj1vUuRNKABhC4pNKBAf5UnfJ6rH9Pg2BH3trmD","basis":"token-balance-delta","attribution":null}],"transaction":"5bsbaDWtYPJJXV7WLsVrkZ9P4BBWeEToNBp7cNRDFpeh5nMpstj1vUuRNKABhC4pNKBAf5UnfJ6rH9Pg2BH3trmD","note":"What the Squads execute that carried out the decision moved, at every call depth beneath it."},"agents":[{"role":"proposer","account":"BvjhiNkk7hZBoEKkGKKCLCxMGnUJpoJVrUhv8nz8zXMT","name":null}],"authorities":[{"role":"dao","account":"BLkBSE96kQys7SrMioKxeMiVbeo4Ckk2Y4n1JphKxYnv","name":"Umbra"}]},{"id":"metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-CYdZd78jm4iH6XBDRdSTHdpkvp4F81y3YL4reeGTaxfD","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-CYdZd78jm4iH6XBDRdSTHdpkvp4F81y3YL4reeGTaxfD/","engine":"metadao","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"CYdZd78jm4iH6XBDRdSTHdpkvp4F81y3YL4reeGTaxfD","decider":{"account":"BLkBSE96kQys7SrMioKxeMiVbeo4Ckk2Y4n1JphKxYnv","name":"Umbra"},"title":"Umbra decision 10","openedAt":"2026-10-09T09:12:10.000Z","closesAt":"2026-10-12T09:12:10.000Z","wallets":null,"counted":true,"form":{"engine":"metadao","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","options":[{"id":"pass","label":"Pass","noOp":false},{"id":"fail","label":"Fail (no change)","noOp":true}],"measure":{"kind":"token-value","metric":"time-weighted conditional token price over the window","thresholdPct":-3},"selectedOptionIds":["pass"]},"purpose":{"status":"withheld","reason":"The proposal's Squads transaction carries no memo text."},"knowledge":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/lane-findings.json","observedAt":"2026-10-13T04:45:30.000Z","rosterVersion":"3.0.0","readings":[{"name":"evidence","label":"Evidence","status":"filed"},{"name":"attack","label":"Attack","status":"filed"},{"name":"market","label":"Market","status":"filed"},{"name":"playbooks","label":"Playbooks","status":"standing"},{"name":"learning","label":"Learning","status":"standing"},{"name":"claims","label":"Claims","status":"standing"}]},"analysis":{"schemaVersion":1,"subject":{"engine":"metadao","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"CYdZd78jm4iH6XBDRdSTHdpkvp4F81y3YL4reeGTaxfD"},"evaluatedAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","cutoffAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","evidence":[{"id":"6267facd0e213a613f05a1922f8720ec87a1fb33716f4c48b37c8bb228087402","source":"retained-input:6267facd0e213a613f05a1922f8720ec87a1fb33716f4c48b37c8bb228087402","revision":"6267facd0e213a613f05a1922f8720ec87a1fb33716f4c48b37c8bb228087402","digest":"6267facd0e213a613f05a1922f8720ec87a1fb33716f4c48b37c8bb228087402","observedAt":null,"knownAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z"}],"results":[{"id":"disclosures","instrument":{"id":"disclosures","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"partial","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["6267facd0e213a613f05a1922f8720ec87a1fb33716f4c48b37c8bb228087402"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution."],"payload":{"kind":"disclosures","fields":[{"id":"proposal-account","label":"Proposal account","state":"present","note":"Confirmed onchain at the address shown."},{"id":"proposal-class","label":"Proposal class","state":"present","note":"Declared team class."},{"id":"decision-threshold","label":"Decision threshold","state":"missing","note":"Not fixed yet; the DAO account's options are team ▼ 3.00% / non-team ▲ 3.00%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close stamps are on the account."},{"id":"proposer-stake","label":"Proposer stake","state":"missing","note":"No stake amount decodes from the account."},{"id":"proposer-identity","label":"Proposer address","state":"present","note":"The proposing address is on the account."},{"id":"execution-account","label":"Execution account","state":"present","note":"A Squads execution account is linked."},{"id":"decision-market","label":"Decision market","state":"missing","note":"The window settled; the account records the outcome, not the completed TWAP."}]}},{"id":"participation","instrument":{"id":"participation","version":"2.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["6267facd0e213a613f05a1922f8720ec87a1fb33716f4c48b37c8bb228087402"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants.","Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":2,"wallets":1,"sizedVolumeUsd":50,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":100,"topThreeWalletSharePct":100,"multiPoolWallets":0}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["6267facd0e213a613f05a1922f8720ec87a1fb33716f4c48b37c8bb228087402"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal 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Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics."],"payload":{"kind":"rule-observations","observations":[{"id":"negative-threshold","headline":"Pass wins below fail — threshold ▼ 3.00%","detail":"The configured threshold is negative: the pass market still passes printing less than 3.00% below the fail market. The rule is disclosed; pricing what it is worth is not this lane's claim."},{"id":"team-class-lower-bar","headline":"Team class carries the lower bar","detail":"This window runs under the team option (▼ 3.00%), below the non-team option (▲ 3.00%). The class declaration is proposer-controlled and moves the pass rule."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["6267facd0e213a613f05a1922f8720ec87a1fb33716f4c48b37c8bb228087402"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Retained observations do not establish what happened between reads or why prices changed."],"payload":{"kind":"closing-window","leaderChanged":false,"outcomeFlipped":false,"enteredWith":"pass","closedWith":"pass","closingReads":24}},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"no wallet staked this proposal's 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2026-11-11T09:12:10.000Z."}]},"capital":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/decision-capital.json","state":"moved","movements":[{"kind":"transfer","asset":"PRVT6TB7uss3FrUd2D9xs2zqDBsa3GbMJMwCQsgmeta","symbol":null,"rawAmount":"647459228532","decimals":6,"from":"6nLmhEsBQeEmUys9ZDCVYTRhe1xU9N7q2DMNdjRWt4dA","fromOwner":"HLnpSz9h2S4hiLQ43rnSD9XkcUThA7B8hQMKmDaiTLcC","to":"3bVJzGdxGaF1vaCep4ruSEKdKJ7PfK9H6Xr3P1LiPSZg","toOwner":"6VsC8PuKkXm5xo54c2vbrAaSfQipkpGHqNuKTxXFySx6","transaction":"2gmWme7PsTzghXC9yGqY3w1S8CXj37KKTCKryRsTVvqWYJY6X3NmbY2hL19aP49H1eSUx46mxD4y9HUkdByCLUEc","basis":"token-balance-delta","attribution":null},{"kind":"transfer","asset":"EPjFWdd5AufqSSqeM2qN1xzybapC8G4wEGGkZwyTDt1v","symbol":"USDC","rawAmount":"185339855674","decimals":6,"from":"EDJdWfi6UgovnABTnSPdnqm5qhRXG36Lo3w8KjQMLWdw","fromOwner":"HLnpSz9h2S4hiLQ43rnSD9XkcUThA7B8hQMKmDaiTLcC","to":"43GopUATK1nhWwmj1cm2mN1TocvaxdXgKg8VD64ZtviR","toOwner":"6VsC8PuKkXm5xo54c2vbrAaSfQipkpGHqNuKTxXFySx6","transaction":"2gmWme7PsTzghXC9yGqY3w1S8CXj37KKTCKryRsTVvqWYJY6X3NmbY2hL19aP49H1eSUx46mxD4y9HUkdByCLUEc","basis":"token-balance-delta","attribution":null}],"transaction":"2gmWme7PsTzghXC9yGqY3w1S8CXj37KKTCKryRsTVvqWYJY6X3NmbY2hL19aP49H1eSUx46mxD4y9HUkdByCLUEc","note":"What the Squads execute that carried out the decision moved, at every call depth beneath it."},"agents":[{"role":"proposer","account":"Jure6vLAa7rxR1kzGj49sAGVMqfJdCGgU5Kht6RTAmg","name":null}],"authorities":[{"role":"dao","account":"BLkBSE96kQys7SrMioKxeMiVbeo4Ckk2Y4n1JphKxYnv","name":"Umbra"}]},{"id":"metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-DcVUBEEmKbHqYLheDFT1PGa3krUzG6v5ySHBCgLXX4it","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-DcVUBEEmKbHqYLheDFT1PGa3krUzG6v5ySHBCgLXX4it/","engine":"metadao","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"DcVUBEEmKbHqYLheDFT1PGa3krUzG6v5ySHBCgLXX4it","decider":{"account":"DMB74TZgN7Rqfwtqqm3VQBgKBb2WYPdBqVtHbvB4LLeV","name":null},"title":null,"openedAt":"2025-12-22T21:21:50.000Z","closesAt":"2025-12-24T21:21:51.000Z","wallets":null,"counted":false,"form":{"engine":"metadao","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","options":[{"id":"pass","label":"Pass","noOp":false},{"id":"fail","label":"Fail (no 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Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics."],"payload":{"kind":"rule-observations","observations":[{"id":"tie-fails","headline":"A tie does not pass","detail":"The threshold is zero and the pass rule is strict: the pass TWAP must strictly beat the fail TWAP, so a level print fails."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing 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the Squads execute that carried out the decision moved, at every call depth beneath it."},"agents":[{"role":"proposer","account":"5F288u9gWTYY2QvdRwu7f1MbtS4pZG6r8Hz3xDmsguud","name":null}],"authorities":[{"role":"dao","account":"BLkBSE96kQys7SrMioKxeMiVbeo4Ckk2Y4n1JphKxYnv","name":"Umbra"}]},{"id":"metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-CZZnYfoVKG2Xmcnwga4y748wiGft7YRdxBMP2Lexjhcy","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-CZZnYfoVKG2Xmcnwga4y748wiGft7YRdxBMP2Lexjhcy/","engine":"metadao","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"CZZnYfoVKG2Xmcnwga4y748wiGft7YRdxBMP2Lexjhcy","decider":{"account":"DMB74TZgN7Rqfwtqqm3VQBgKBb2WYPdBqVtHbvB4LLeV","name":null},"title":null,"openedAt":"2026-01-14T19:11:34.000Z","closesAt":"2026-01-16T19:11:35.000Z","wallets":null,"counted":false,"form":{"engine":"metadao","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","options":[{"id":"pass","label":"Pass","noOp":false},{"id":"fail","label":"Fail (no 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the Squads execute that carried out the decision moved, at every call depth beneath it."},"agents":[{"role":"proposer","account":"ELT1uRmtFvYP6WSrc4mCZaW7VVbcdkcKAj39aHSVCmwH","name":null}],"authorities":[{"role":"dao","account":"j6Hx7bdAzcj1NsoRBqdafFuRkgEU48QeZ1i5NVXz9fF","name":null}]},{"id":"metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-APk1tpQq75LyrMmE4ryhuEjV37qggVaqrJgYpzKJ975z","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-APk1tpQq75LyrMmE4ryhuEjV37qggVaqrJgYpzKJ975z/","engine":"metadao","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"APk1tpQq75LyrMmE4ryhuEjV37qggVaqrJgYpzKJ975z","decider":{"account":"5FPGRzY9ArJFwY2Hp2y2eqMzVewyWCBox7esmpuZfCvE","name":"ZKFG / Zinc"},"title":"ZKFG / Zinc decision 8","openedAt":"2026-06-17T08:59:54.000Z","closesAt":"2026-06-20T08:59:54.000Z","wallets":null,"counted":true,"form":{"engine":"metadao","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","options":[{"id":"pass","label":"Pass","noOp":false},{"id":"fail","label":"Fail (no 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proposal\n\nhttps://assets.zinc.cash/prop-008/Take%20ZKFG%20private%20round%202.pdf"],"url":null},"knowledge":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/lane-findings.json","observedAt":"2026-10-13T04:45:30.000Z","rosterVersion":"3.0.0","readings":[{"name":"evidence","label":"Evidence","status":"filed"},{"name":"attack","label":"Attack","status":"filed"},{"name":"market","label":"Market","status":"filed"},{"name":"playbooks","label":"Playbooks","status":"standing"},{"name":"learning","label":"Learning","status":"standing"},{"name":"claims","label":"Claims","status":"standing"}]},"analysis":{"schemaVersion":1,"subject":{"engine":"metadao","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"APk1tpQq75LyrMmE4ryhuEjV37qggVaqrJgYpzKJ975z"},"evaluatedAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","cutoffAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","evidence":[{"id":"bc159dabd5da0e0f123a9e1a591a95ffc531404dbbe4f013b25287a06a2df239","source":"retained-input:bc159dabd5da0e0f123a9e1a591a95ffc531404dbbe4f013b25287a06a2df239","revision":"bc159dabd5da0e0f123a9e1a591a95ffc531404dbbe4f013b25287a06a2df239","digest":"bc159dabd5da0e0f123a9e1a591a95ffc531404dbbe4f013b25287a06a2df239","observedAt":null,"knownAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z"}],"results":[{"id":"disclosures","instrument":{"id":"disclosures","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"partial","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["bc159dabd5da0e0f123a9e1a591a95ffc531404dbbe4f013b25287a06a2df239"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Presence 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The class declaration is proposer-controlled and moves the pass rule."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["c8e3edbb835d651d73e6fa694909c01f6b799e9b40fc1a00154f5f6c945d8ea3"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Retained observations do not establish what happened between reads or why prices changed."],"payload":{"kind":"closing-window","leaderChanged":false,"outcomeFlipped":false,"enteredWith":"pass","closedWith":"pass","closingReads":24}},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"no wallet staked this proposal's 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yet reached: due 2026-10-31T18:06:59.000Z."}]},"impact":{"status":"recorded","forecast":{"selectedOptionId":"pass","referenceOptionId":"fail","reference":"default","selectedPrice":0.014381792677,"referencePrice":0.013121723734,"forecastPct":9.6029223640413,"basis":"Final pass and fail TWAPs at finalization (2026-10-01T18:08:01.000Z), normalized conditional prices.","source":"trade-ledger/metadao/7KyJt7qSHZTrq6Au8FPkzvANo3snViaCbzZmcdwDivi8/finalization (FinalizeProposalEvent 57ZaLhpQcma28ATcWXAA1gomn8vaw7mxSjKaoPoGJPwXRPvhTiYqnjqroxD1H1MVskuUyikTMyEe2vBm3K7TZ8Yh#0)"},"realised":[{"status":"recorded","checkpoint":"1d","changePct":-10.313393851744724,"from":"2026-10-01T18:00:20.077Z","to":"2026-10-02T18:00:10.065Z"},{"status":"recorded","checkpoint":"7d","changePct":-16.23490971540177,"from":"2026-10-01T18:00:20.077Z","to":"2026-10-08T18:00:05.046Z"},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","reason":"Not yet reached: due 2026-10-31T18:06:59.000Z."}]},"capital":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/decision-capital.json","state":"moved","movements":[{"kind":"transfer","asset":"EPjFWdd5AufqSSqeM2qN1xzybapC8G4wEGGkZwyTDt1v","symbol":"USDC","rawAmount":"5000000000","decimals":6,"from":"5nX4ejGFqTZTL3aLrU9QgLUwMHrZtQAPVPWXHpumRUMA","fromOwner":"FeMyhpB3LJuuuA1oLzXFDuZ48EJz46gyyk3w2xuQA8uw","to":"CmZ3kzS48EqTRMKyQiMQ1TAbtwtT4dQWPdqRCUYvDLC8","toOwner":"Ec9ZMbUyGbejqjMThZHGGFZBvScwpAQRtvQvVmwvRNKP","transaction":"4Rk4pmrFfpagFKU6vP34CKBH18GHKxxRznES8K3qSxDvwuvLDrW8Mtn7fjJsK9ZFiwJK6w1iyXsFSNhuKKKz2BhU","basis":"token-balance-delta","attribution":null}],"transaction":"4Rk4pmrFfpagFKU6vP34CKBH18GHKxxRznES8K3qSxDvwuvLDrW8Mtn7fjJsK9ZFiwJK6w1iyXsFSNhuKKKz2BhU","note":"What the Squads execute that carried out the decision moved, at every call depth beneath 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impact."],"payload":{"kind":"market","prices":{"fail":0.742132970832,"pass":0.79080543605},"defaultOption":"fail","thresholdPct":-3,"leader":"pass","leaderMarginPct":6.558456116487264,"selectedByRule":"pass","recordedSelection":"pass","provisional":false}},{"id":"selection-rule","instrument":{"id":"selection-rule","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["9ad8fee30555fe02b1fa126bf32812fa3fdad1050b650e102b83b369bfad68df"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics."],"payload":{"kind":"rule-observations","observations":[{"id":"negative-threshold","headline":"Pass wins below fail — threshold ▼ 3.00%","detail":"The configured threshold is negative: the pass market still passes printing less than 3.00% below the fail market. The rule is disclosed; pricing what it is worth is not this lane's claim."},{"id":"team-class-lower-bar","headline":"Team class carries the lower bar","detail":"This window runs under the team option (▼ 3.00%), below the non-team option (▲ 3.00%). The class declaration is proposer-controlled and moves the pass rule."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["9ad8fee30555fe02b1fa126bf32812fa3fdad1050b650e102b83b369bfad68df"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Retained observations do not establish what happened between reads or why prices changed."],"payload":{"kind":"closing-window","leaderChanged":false,"outcomeFlipped":false,"enteredWith":"pass","closedWith":"pass","closingReads":24}},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"no wallet staked this proposal's 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match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety."],"payload":{"kind":"detector","vectorId":"wash-volume-alignment-inflation","classification":"NO-MATCH","matched":0,"evaluated":5,"indicators":[{"id":"paired-branch-executions","matched":false,"evidence":"1 wallet traded more than one option's market after netting arbitrage; none round-tripped the minimum turnover"},{"id":"fixed-size-cluster","matched":false,"evidence":"no fixed-size cadence cluster from a wallet showing wash evidence"},{"id":"near-neutral-net","matched":false,"evidence":"no wallet ended near-neutral after high turnover net of arbitrage"},{"id":"arb-frequency-band","matched":false,"evidence":"no wallet traded inside the frequency band net of arbitrage pairs"},{"id":"stripped-tilt-shift","matched":false,"evidence":"tilt 0.34 → 0.34 (shift 0.00); 0 wallets showing wash 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records.","evidenceIds":["9ad8fee30555fe02b1fa126bf32812fa3fdad1050b650e102b83b369bfad68df"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null}],"interpretations":[{"id":"interpretation:market-selection","statement":"The recorded prices imply pass: the leading challenger's lead over the default is 6.56%, against a -3.00% threshold.","basis":"derivation","resultIds":["market-selection"],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"revisitWhen":["A correction to the final prices or governing rule."]}]},"execution":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/proposal-execution.json","state":"executed","at":"2026-10-12T19:33:00.000Z","evidence":["CSrAXhg1oX4ufYfEHYDFqLHr9toiKYv7uUqHausYBuSG","6gxoYsq5R9hkZukHkujj5zDcvrmPcb27GcQSGGKArs48","25whyHwAAy9t8zu51QV4RzWKXhtY76jCXP9xh4bNGabSn1Ceaw5CM6tqezSyzH3iKkN6LqqVfGAMWBMtst9v898b"],"note":"The Squads transaction executed, and its calls match the stored vault instructions."},"outcome":{"status":"recorded","kind":"token-value","measure":"token price","unit":"USD","closedAt":"2026-10-12T19:31:41.000Z","series":{"lane":{"chain":"solana","marketKind":"spot","marketId":"solomon","series":"price-usd"},"since":"2026-10-12T19:31:41.000Z","path":"/api/organization-history?slug=solomon&series=price-usd"},"checkpoints":[{"status":"recorded","checkpoint":"close","target":"2026-10-12T19:31:41.000Z","at":"2026-10-12T19:30:12.891Z","value":0.723722976222,"source":"solana/spot/solomon/price-usd","provenance":"api:organization-quotes"},{"status":"recorded","checkpoint":"1d","target":"2026-10-13T19:31:41.000Z","at":"2026-10-13T19:30:07.981Z","value":0.7038686008285879,"source":"solana/spot/solomon/price-usd","provenance":"api:organization-quotes"},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"7d","target":"2026-10-19T19:31:41.000Z","reason":"Not yet reached: the checkpoint's window is open until 2026-10-20T07:31:41.000Z."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","target":"2026-11-11T19:31:41.000Z","reason":"Not yet reached: due 2026-11-11T19:31:41.000Z."}]},"impact":{"status":"recorded","forecast":{"selectedOptionId":"pass","referenceOptionId":"fail","reference":"default","selectedPrice":0.79080543605,"referencePrice":0.742132970832,"forecastPct":6.558456116487266,"basis":"Final pass and fail TWAPs at finalization (2026-10-12T19:32:01.000Z), normalized conditional prices.","source":"trade-ledger/metadao/4j99XLhrJU1Jtr2zfHrfpC9UE1hsowMHsB9ev9o1bXhf/finalization (FinalizeProposalEvent 4XXx1qF4ztbAYGHGNH8iaLAnEyJfTJGAJJWqnRQHLA8jM3Uque9AMRejjN3VgJYyxymVJd8mR165f3pELtpH5FDX#0)"},"realised":[{"status":"recorded","checkpoint":"1d","changePct":-2.7433667364074155,"from":"2026-10-12T19:30:12.891Z","to":"2026-10-13T19:30:07.981Z"},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"7d","reason":"Not yet reached: the checkpoint's window is open until 2026-10-20T07:31:41.000Z."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","reason":"Not yet reached: due 2026-11-11T19:31:41.000Z."}]},"capital":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/decision-capital.json","state":"moved","movements":[{"kind":"transfer","asset":"SoLo9oxzLDpcq1dpqAgMwgce5WqkRDtNXK7EPnbmeta","symbol":null,"rawAmount":"418619205713","decimals":6,"from":"EFtLfKoWcsctiKF4FDvoyjouTd6QvVtRAgWNBNrZd1mR","fromOwner":"DzYtzoNvPbyFCzwZA6cSm9eDEEmxEB9f8AGkJXUXgnSA","to":"8vGfm1eGWcQobMw8cXVXgjNDdo4ckq2Jmns5wd2PD4WR","toOwner":"8GVq1srBAZBsCeYpwdKUwEXzDffwAE5xSLWB1ec2gerr","transaction":"25whyHwAAy9t8zu51QV4RzWKXhtY76jCXP9xh4bNGabSn1Ceaw5CM6tqezSyzH3iKkN6LqqVfGAMWBMtst9v898b","basis":"token-balance-delta","attribution":null},{"kind":"transfer","asset":"EPjFWdd5AufqSSqeM2qN1xzybapC8G4wEGGkZwyTDt1v","symbol":"USDC","rawAmount":"305777580975","decimals":6,"from":"BjJ3i66YMuybeKsjMNE4NhjghTF3GnWKY9xaCRLqavP3","fromOwner":"DzYtzoNvPbyFCzwZA6cSm9eDEEmxEB9f8AGkJXUXgnSA","to":"5e5aQreWob7tLvxEx6624MmvnUXdxxYcJtxVvtGfPc5s","toOwner":"8GVq1srBAZBsCeYpwdKUwEXzDffwAE5xSLWB1ec2gerr","transaction":"25whyHwAAy9t8zu51QV4RzWKXhtY76jCXP9xh4bNGabSn1Ceaw5CM6tqezSyzH3iKkN6LqqVfGAMWBMtst9v898b","basis":"token-balance-delta","attribution":null}],"transaction":"25whyHwAAy9t8zu51QV4RzWKXhtY76jCXP9xh4bNGabSn1Ceaw5CM6tqezSyzH3iKkN6LqqVfGAMWBMtst9v898b","note":"What the Squads execute that carried out the decision moved, at every call depth beneath it."},"agents":[{"role":"proposer","account":"CGNYKHZVH9JLujsefHXdPXzPnfmyudeHRA1opBjiYhyK","name":null}],"authorities":[{"role":"dao","account":"DzYtzoNvPbyFCzwZA6cSm9eDEEmxEB9f8AGkJXUXgnSA","name":"Solomon"}]},{"id":"metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-BSXRezN7ySoX2Hf6pqU5R3PnQjB4xZ1nJwGwoU4K1ECT","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-BSXRezN7ySoX2Hf6pqU5R3PnQjB4xZ1nJwGwoU4K1ECT/","engine":"metadao","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"BSXRezN7ySoX2Hf6pqU5R3PnQjB4xZ1nJwGwoU4K1ECT","decider":{"account":"j6Hx7bdAzcj1NsoRBqdafFuRkgEU48QeZ1i5NVXz9fF","name":null},"title":null,"openedAt":"2025-11-21T19:13:57.000Z","closesAt":"2025-11-23T19:13:58.000Z","wallets":null,"counted":false,"form":{"engine":"metadao","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","options":[{"id":"pass","label":"Pass","noOp":false},{"id":"fail","label":"Fail (no change)","noOp":true}],"measure":{"kind":"token-value","metric":"time-weighted conditional token price over the window","thresholdPct":0},"selectedOptionIds":["pass"]},"purpose":{"status":"withheld","reason":"The proposal's Squads transaction carries no memo text."},"knowledge":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/lane-findings.json","observedAt":"2026-10-13T04:45:30.000Z","rosterVersion":"3.0.0","readings":[{"name":"evidence","label":"Evidence","status":"filed"},{"name":"attack","label":"Attack","status":"filed"},{"name":"market","label":"Market","status":"filed"},{"name":"playbooks","label":"Playbooks","status":"standing"},{"name":"learning","label":"Learning","status":"standing"},{"name":"claims","label":"Claims","status":"standing"}]},"analysis":{"schemaVersion":1,"subject":{"engine":"metadao","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"BSXRezN7ySoX2Hf6pqU5R3PnQjB4xZ1nJwGwoU4K1ECT"},"evaluatedAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","cutoffAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","evidence":[{"id":"6ec6a15f7cd07c488fe5409bb0c9e866172135074e422aed57f12e3e155627d2","source":"retained-input:6ec6a15f7cd07c488fe5409bb0c9e866172135074e422aed57f12e3e155627d2","revision":"6ec6a15f7cd07c488fe5409bb0c9e866172135074e422aed57f12e3e155627d2","digest":"6ec6a15f7cd07c488fe5409bb0c9e866172135074e422aed57f12e3e155627d2","observedAt":null,"knownAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z"}],"results":[{"id":"disclosures","instrument":{"id":"disclosures","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"partial","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["6ec6a15f7cd07c488fe5409bb0c9e866172135074e422aed57f12e3e155627d2"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution."],"payload":{"kind":"disclosures","fields":[{"id":"proposal-account","label":"Proposal account","state":"present","note":"Confirmed onchain at the address shown."},{"id":"proposal-class","label":"Proposal class","state":"present","note":"Declared non-team class."},{"id":"decision-threshold","label":"Decision threshold","state":"missing","note":"Not fixed yet; the DAO account's options are team 0.00% / non-team 0.00%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close stamps are on the account."},{"id":"proposer-stake","label":"Proposer stake","state":"missing","note":"No stake amount decodes from the account."},{"id":"proposer-identity","label":"Proposer address","state":"present","note":"The proposing address is on the account."},{"id":"execution-account","label":"Execution account","state":"present","note":"A Squads execution account is linked."},{"id":"decision-market","label":"Decision market","state":"missing","note":"The window settled; the account records the outcome, not the completed TWAP."}]}},{"id":"participation","instrument":{"id":"participation","version":"2.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["6ec6a15f7cd07c488fe5409bb0c9e866172135074e422aed57f12e3e155627d2"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants.","Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":1,"wallets":1,"sizedVolumeUsd":1,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":100,"topThreeWalletSharePct":100,"multiPoolWallets":0}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["6ec6a15f7cd07c488fe5409bb0c9e866172135074e422aed57f12e3e155627d2"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal 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Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics."],"payload":{"kind":"rule-observations","observations":[{"id":"tie-fails","headline":"A tie does not pass","detail":"The threshold is zero and the pass rule is strict: the pass TWAP must strictly beat the fail TWAP, so a level print fails."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch","evidenceIds":["6ec6a15f7cd07c488fe5409bb0c9e866172135074e422aed57f12e3e155627d2"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"it made 635 transactions in the 30 days before launch, more than the 400 read for bridged funding","evidenceIds":["6ec6a15f7cd07c488fe5409bb0c9e866172135074e422aed57f12e3e155627d2"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"late-window-outcome-steering","instrument":{"id":"late-window-outcome-steering","version":"3.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"no reading of the token's price within 6 hours after the decision was finalized 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two","evidenceIds":["6ec6a15f7cd07c488fe5409bb0c9e866172135074e422aed57f12e3e155627d2"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"prior-decisions","instrument":{"id":"prior-decisions","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["6ec6a15f7cd07c488fe5409bb0c9e866172135074e422aed57f12e3e155627d2"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Prior selections are historical context, not an estimate of decision quality."],"payload":{"kind":"history","cutoffAt":"2025-11-22T19:13:57.000Z","decisions":[{"id":"HLVsFzsVnUQgoamco7z3sJJ1FoEYC9nM3BEndSYZF5fg","closedAt":"2025-11-10T19:38:54.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"passed"},{"id":"3LL34L6U6B6Y6hAx459aLtLibkaGST8nZbRmdQCoYeM5","closedAt":"2025-11-06T23:56:57.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"passed"},{"id":"GAHUBQzZbvTpESCkkFbQyim8wB7kgyJsgvHRp2MtidQW","closedAt":"2025-11-03T21:21:11.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"passed"}]}},{"id":"measured-outcome","instrument":{"id":"measured-outcome","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.","evidenceIds":["6ec6a15f7cd07c488fe5409bb0c9e866172135074e422aed57f12e3e155627d2"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null}],"interpretations":[{"id":"interpretation:market-selection","statement":"The recorded prices imply pass: the leading challenger's lead over the default is 60.50%, against a 0.00% threshold.","basis":"derivation","resultIds":["market-selection"],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"revisitWhen":["A correction to the final prices or governing rule."]}]},"execution":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/proposal-execution.json","state":"executed","at":"2025-11-24T17:08:53.000Z","evidence":["Fippb6hru9NbsSK56veJnV5LxquXx54TRJNf87sfxmJo","73DXorkJCwu9BYMm33ckkMSWgd1Tc2LxpHPakmSk9vRs","53gHDL9fWF3C17K9TQsHqt4trwEb7zjpT7KxBjMY6Afxam72EiVHvb6vwBs2v6uRwe19a9rL4qdjSUABKSmFJ8SS"],"note":"The Squads transaction executed, and its calls match the stored vault instructions."},"outcome":{"status":"recorded","kind":"token-value","measure":"token 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checkpoint."}]},"impact":{"status":"recorded","forecast":{"selectedOptionId":"pass","referenceOptionId":"fail","reference":"default","selectedPrice":0.000007570817,"referencePrice":0.000004717162,"forecastPct":60.4951663733406,"basis":"Final pass and fail TWAPs at finalization (2025-11-23T19:16:02.000Z), normalized conditional prices.","source":"trade-ledger/metadao/BSXRezN7ySoX2Hf6pqU5R3PnQjB4xZ1nJwGwoU4K1ECT/finalization (FinalizeProposalEvent 5xgeymikirUD47RhAf46DgFsovbTD2gCnLt9fk1amdZJe9aag2zj4EHjiNzKPrX59VSZXu3Q5tjKxL31VvfXR8G7#0)"},"realised":[{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"1d","reason":"No price reading within 3 hours of the checkpoint."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"7d","reason":"No price reading within 12 hours of the checkpoint."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","reason":"No price reading within 24 hours of the checkpoint."}]},"capital":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/decision-capital.json","state":"moved","movements":[{"kind":"mint","asset":"ARxfTY561sG4r9Unua9sn55zmqPhEWLTPXTLAPaiNtFY","symbol":null,"rawAmount":"123456789000000","decimals":6,"from":null,"fromOwner":null,"to":"2xNoVs4jGHAmD6XfdmyDdGux67GBtsHE7i2tkYBEAnRC","toOwner":"ELT1uRmtFvYP6WSrc4mCZaW7VVbcdkcKAj39aHSVCmwH","transaction":"53gHDL9fWF3C17K9TQsHqt4trwEb7zjpT7KxBjMY6Afxam72EiVHvb6vwBs2v6uRwe19a9rL4qdjSUABKSmFJ8SS","basis":"token-balance-delta","attribution":null}],"transaction":"53gHDL9fWF3C17K9TQsHqt4trwEb7zjpT7KxBjMY6Afxam72EiVHvb6vwBs2v6uRwe19a9rL4qdjSUABKSmFJ8SS","note":"What the Squads execute that carried out the decision moved, at every call depth beneath 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window","thresholdPct":1.5},"selectedOptionIds":["pass"]},"purpose":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/proposal-text.json","title":"ZKFG / Zinc decision 6","text":["MetaDAO proposal\nTitle: Orderly ZKFG Liquidation Offer Capped at $0.15 per Token\nBody: Authorize an orderly ZKFG liquidation offer capped at $0.15 USDC per ZKFG.\nThe offer gives holders a clean premium exit and avoids a contested governance process.\nFull proposal: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PP582ysjUE4BjCv_MVPbh_luuUsvIacA/view?usp=sharing"],"url":null},"knowledge":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/lane-findings.json","observedAt":"2026-10-13T04:45:30.000Z","rosterVersion":"3.0.0","readings":[{"name":"evidence","label":"Evidence","status":"filed"},{"name":"attack","label":"Attack","status":"filed"},{"name":"market","label":"Market","status":"filed"},{"name":"playbooks","label":"Playbooks","status":"standing"},{"name":"learning","label":"Learning","status":"standing"},{"name":"claims","label":"Claims","status":"standing"}]},"analysis":{"schemaVersion":1,"subject":{"engine":"metadao","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"BWachMwZJZS9y6pDuYFr7xusQZU3azNGSsm2jeRj7qXb"},"evaluatedAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","cutoffAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","evidence":[{"id":"fa533acf279156e914f03cf8f41a61d309b67b66b4a42fffab4f9637a80f7743","source":"retained-input:fa533acf279156e914f03cf8f41a61d309b67b66b4a42fffab4f9637a80f7743","revision":"fa533acf279156e914f03cf8f41a61d309b67b66b4a42fffab4f9637a80f7743","digest":"fa533acf279156e914f03cf8f41a61d309b67b66b4a42fffab4f9637a80f7743","observedAt":null,"knownAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z"}],"results":[{"id":"disclosures","instrument":{"id":"disclosures","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"partial","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["fa533acf279156e914f03cf8f41a61d309b67b66b4a42fffab4f9637a80f7743"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Presence 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Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics."],"payload":{"kind":"rule-observations","observations":[]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch","evidenceIds":["fa533acf279156e914f03cf8f41a61d309b67b66b4a42fffab4f9637a80f7743"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"it made 1172 transactions in the 30 days before launch, more than the 400 read for bridged funding","evidenceIds":["fa533acf279156e914f03cf8f41a61d309b67b66b4a42fffab4f9637a80f7743"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"late-window-outcome-steering","instrument":{"id":"late-window-outcome-steering","version":"3.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"the token's price lane (solana/spot/zklsol/price-usd) begins 2026-08-23T14:28:16.194Z, after this decision closed","evidenceIds":["fa533acf279156e914f03cf8f41a61d309b67b66b4a42fffab4f9637a80f7743"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"wash-volume-alignment-inflation","instrument":{"id":"wash-volume-alignment-inflation","version":"4.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["fa533acf279156e914f03cf8f41a61d309b67b66b4a42fffab4f9637a80f7743"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["A pattern match does not establish intent; 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the DAO account's options are team ▼ 3.00% / non-team ▲ 3.00%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close stamps are on the account."},{"id":"proposer-stake","label":"Proposer stake","state":"missing","note":"No stake amount decodes from the account."},{"id":"proposer-identity","label":"Proposer address","state":"present","note":"The proposing address is on the account."},{"id":"execution-account","label":"Execution account","state":"present","note":"A Squads execution account is linked."},{"id":"decision-market","label":"Decision market","state":"missing","note":"The window settled; the account records the outcome, not the completed TWAP."}]}},{"id":"participation","instrument":{"id":"participation","version":"2.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["f2b3e252b3438ce9e76cae6e5edb2a557b2b7d27664ea32e8c8adbb5473d8df1"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants.","Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":33,"wallets":10,"sizedVolumeUsd":10571.410338000002,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":46.96999543335672,"topThreeWalletSharePct":81.97848991679164,"multiPoolWallets":1}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["f2b3e252b3438ce9e76cae6e5edb2a557b2b7d27664ea32e8c8adbb5473d8df1"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"payload":{"kind":"market","prices":{"fail":0.008304719201,"pass":0.015400308524},"defaultOption":"fail","thresholdPct":-3,"leader":"pass","leaderMarginPct":85.44044839162768,"selectedByRule":"pass","recordedSelection":"pass","provisional":false}},{"id":"selection-rule","instrument":{"id":"selection-rule","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["f2b3e252b3438ce9e76cae6e5edb2a557b2b7d27664ea32e8c8adbb5473d8df1"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics."],"payload":{"kind":"rule-observations","observations":[{"id":"negative-threshold","headline":"Pass wins below fail — threshold ▼ 3.00%","detail":"The configured threshold is negative: the pass market still passes printing less than 3.00% below the fail market. The rule is disclosed; pricing what it is worth is not this lane's claim."},{"id":"team-class-lower-bar","headline":"Team class carries the lower bar","detail":"This window runs under the team option (▼ 3.00%), below the non-team option (▲ 3.00%). The class declaration is proposer-controlled and moves the pass rule."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch","evidenceIds":["f2b3e252b3438ce9e76cae6e5edb2a557b2b7d27664ea32e8c8adbb5473d8df1"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"the largest-staker staked 600,197.539 tokens, of which 100,197.539 came by transfer from another wallet (2SQJ6XJQjfWt91YqSReoZg42Dp2sDQiMGWiXpuRbbdPo sent the most); how that wallet acquired them is not 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The class declaration is proposer-controlled and moves the pass rule."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["a5736044964eee649b02673f8ae9724fbb3aba0d0706644bafa35561db2118e0"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Retained observations do not establish what happened between reads or why prices changed."],"payload":{"kind":"closing-window","leaderChanged":false,"outcomeFlipped":false,"enteredWith":"pass","closedWith":"pass","closingReads":38}},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"no wallet staked this proposal's 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change)","noOp":true}],"measure":{"kind":"token-value","metric":"time-weighted conditional token price over the window","thresholdPct":1.5},"selectedOptionIds":["pass"]},"purpose":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/proposal-text.json","title":"ZKFG / Zinc decision 5","text":["MetaDAO proposal\nTitle: ZKFG OTC\nBody: OTC sale:\nUp to 2,000,000 ZKFG at 75% of ZKFG/USDC market price.\nUSDC to treasury before/atomically with ZKFG transfer. \n\nFull proposal: 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the DAO account's options are team ▼ 3.00% / non-team ▲ 3.00%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close stamps are on the account."},{"id":"proposer-stake","label":"Proposer stake","state":"missing","note":"No stake amount decodes from the account."},{"id":"proposer-identity","label":"Proposer address","state":"present","note":"The proposing address is on the account."},{"id":"execution-account","label":"Execution account","state":"present","note":"A Squads execution account is linked."},{"id":"decision-market","label":"Decision market","state":"missing","note":"The window settled; the account records the outcome, not the completed TWAP."}]}},{"id":"participation","instrument":{"id":"participation","version":"2.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["d0abf568538cc7eac01cb569fdc69298c1ded714be78c89990c7179bf470a49e"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants.","Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":2412,"wallets":37,"sizedVolumeUsd":274223.23208999983,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":86.61529621386944,"topThreeWalletSharePct":97.17181592168879,"multiPoolWallets":3}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["d0abf568538cc7eac01cb569fdc69298c1ded714be78c89990c7179bf470a49e"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"payload":{"kind":"market","prices":{"fail":5.157953305748,"pass":5.45045129362},"defaultOption":"fail","thresholdPct":-3,"leader":"pass","leaderMarginPct":5.670814963486405,"selectedByRule":"pass","recordedSelection":"pass","provisional":false}},{"id":"selection-rule","instrument":{"id":"selection-rule","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["d0abf568538cc7eac01cb569fdc69298c1ded714be78c89990c7179bf470a49e"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. 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The class declaration is proposer-controlled and moves the pass rule."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["d0abf568538cc7eac01cb569fdc69298c1ded714be78c89990c7179bf470a49e"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Retained observations do not establish what happened between reads or why prices changed."],"payload":{"kind":"closing-window","leaderChanged":false,"outcomeFlipped":false,"enteredWith":"pass","closedWith":"pass","closingReads":120}},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"the largest-staker staked 560.264 tokens, of which 345.264 came by transfer from another wallet (526W6vNe3WtRsfw8ELNKtAcpa2eFzXBtvre6RSsn3xUi 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The class declaration is proposer-controlled and moves the pass rule."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch","evidenceIds":["bbd263cc6d0125c35f9c3de6b69e08b765a2b2a19c27364111fa12f3ec85c755"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"no wallet staked this proposal's 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the Squads execute that carried out the decision moved, at every call depth beneath it."},"agents":[{"role":"proposer","account":"5F288u9gWTYY2QvdRwu7f1MbtS4pZG6r8Hz3xDmsguud","name":null}],"authorities":[{"role":"dao","account":"s45fTDhkzKPMFbNmUXA3bJNdF92z5cbVvHdY8LpznWQ","name":"Omnipair"}]},{"id":"metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-55Sdas9PeRW3tdLn885WWCgRKTsPiYMug1EbJNFSERTj","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-55Sdas9PeRW3tdLn885WWCgRKTsPiYMug1EbJNFSERTj/","engine":"metadao","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"55Sdas9PeRW3tdLn885WWCgRKTsPiYMug1EbJNFSERTj","decider":{"account":"DzYtzoNvPbyFCzwZA6cSm9eDEEmxEB9f8AGkJXUXgnSA","name":"Solomon"},"title":"Solomon decision 4","openedAt":"2026-04-20T20:05:42.000Z","closesAt":"2026-04-23T20:05:42.000Z","wallets":null,"counted":true,"form":{"engine":"metadao","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","options":[{"id":"pass","label":"Pass","noOp":false},{"id":"fail","label":"Fail (no 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The class declaration is proposer-controlled and moves the pass rule."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch","evidenceIds":["60216d0a50890652be15e8108b29cbb6543916bab68d4120f6bc56cb41d788f2"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"no wallet staked this proposal's 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The class declaration is proposer-controlled and moves the pass rule."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch","evidenceIds":["92ac7cf7711430a0997b3aa840ac06584158ba77cc2ba5486c112b7664f14e2a"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"no wallet staked this proposal's 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of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution."],"payload":{"kind":"disclosures","fields":[{"id":"proposal-account","label":"Proposal account","state":"present","note":"Confirmed onchain at the address shown."},{"id":"proposal-class","label":"Proposal class","state":"present","note":"Declared team class."},{"id":"decision-threshold","label":"Decision threshold","state":"missing","note":"Not fixed yet; the DAO account's options are team ▼ 3.00% / non-team ▲ 3.00%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close stamps are on the account."},{"id":"proposer-stake","label":"Proposer stake","state":"missing","note":"No stake amount decodes from the account."},{"id":"proposer-identity","label":"Proposer address","state":"present","note":"The proposing address is on the account."},{"id":"execution-account","label":"Execution account","state":"present","note":"A Squads execution account is linked."},{"id":"decision-market","label":"Decision 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only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":1,"wallets":1,"sizedVolumeUsd":56.31,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":100,"topThreeWalletSharePct":100,"multiPoolWallets":0}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["64b27b4024be62a431d3d26001c89a3d7bc52e4563695742d03be217416b0a55"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal 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checkpoint."}]},"capital":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/decision-capital.json","state":"none","movements":[],"transaction":"KzbQMSDAQa3nWJ78zBh6iefU5vmVQoB6BBGkkkuTX9RDTi59XM29ptr4b4H1EbA2WyXy9FsL659foWh5yY65QoG","note":"Executed; no asset moved: the execution made no token transfer, mint or burn and no SOL transfer (account-creation rent is not counted)."},"agents":[{"role":"proposer","account":"BF8hxzzR4KuVxfsyAUFyy26E6y2GhsSZgBoUQrygwof1","name":null}],"authorities":[{"role":"dao","account":"DHjQLd6LCM4yzZ9e8eabyGofDJLjbouqpuX8wh1rQuBs","name":null}]},{"id":"metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-Ccj44rzUxSGxYtojj3xgcFqg4AkQFUcUqxRhxavZD6uP","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-Ccj44rzUxSGxYtojj3xgcFqg4AkQFUcUqxRhxavZD6uP/","engine":"metadao","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"Ccj44rzUxSGxYtojj3xgcFqg4AkQFUcUqxRhxavZD6uP","decider":{"account":"3szfyfczcGxe6zpTQQBfnkF24SMakWChxp3aU68HNYij","name":"Rip Cars"},"title":"Rip Cars decision 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Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics."],"payload":{"kind":"rule-observations","observations":[{"id":"negative-threshold","headline":"Pass wins below fail — threshold ▼ 3.00%","detail":"The configured threshold is negative: the pass market still passes printing less than 3.00% below the fail market. The rule is disclosed; pricing what it is worth is not this lane's claim."},{"id":"team-class-lower-bar","headline":"Team class carries the lower bar","detail":"This window runs under the team option (▼ 3.00%), below the non-team option (▲ 3.00%). The class declaration is proposer-controlled and moves the pass rule."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["d5a3cc0d2348e6d6861a66c05716b43ab45c13423e964e65b9f5d81df058db1a"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Retained observations do not establish what happened between reads or why prices changed."],"payload":{"kind":"closing-window","leaderChanged":false,"outcomeFlipped":false,"enteredWith":"pass","closedWith":"pass","closingReads":24}},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"no wallet staked this proposal's 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the final prices or governing rule."]}]},"execution":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/proposal-execution.json","state":"executed","at":"2026-09-27T03:21:01.000Z","evidence":["DKYqmSv8PXbw57k6KcCfEJ9g7PHVzEidxJhZ9AcuJzJQ","BJyPDoAgKQxVCWtAM1KBKAzoF6cFKzuC834aum2eW1eW","3umLdA4kYMfSzk8eeksK4iKBa9pZDSPqr6P9kA8bEanev33rbZkUK2AWV537wcgbmH9eHvjh9Jg8ES7xyG6gm6hF"],"note":"The Squads transaction executed, and its calls match the stored vault instructions."},"outcome":{"status":"recorded","kind":"token-value","measure":"token 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yet reached: due 2026-10-27T03:19:10.000Z."}]},"impact":{"status":"recorded","forecast":{"selectedOptionId":"pass","referenceOptionId":"fail","reference":"default","selectedPrice":0.627472706224,"referencePrice":0.627148730801,"forecastPct":0.05165846745576186,"basis":"Final pass and fail TWAPs at finalization (2026-09-27T03:20:01.000Z), normalized conditional prices.","source":"trade-ledger/metadao/2NT1e3H3Vae529cmhhaoPN22ofiaxfv2KzCRcSFbcPkU/finalization (FinalizeProposalEvent 2Qe8m7Kej4C57khQhiC72eRyJALHxd3T2RffmyyTWL4459FvYaMF13bK5xgQLeGuHJtfGCJpyviq4sPwEpLnzegn#0)"},"realised":[{"status":"recorded","checkpoint":"1d","changePct":0.6758649865384658,"from":"2026-09-27T03:15:06.944Z","to":"2026-09-28T03:15:05.831Z"},{"status":"recorded","checkpoint":"7d","changePct":11.398105673618675,"from":"2026-09-27T03:15:06.944Z","to":"2026-10-04T03:15:07.847Z"},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","reason":"Not yet reached: due 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the DAO account's options are team ▼ 3.00% / non-team ▲ 3.00%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close stamps are on the account."},{"id":"proposer-stake","label":"Proposer stake","state":"missing","note":"No stake amount decodes from the account."},{"id":"proposer-identity","label":"Proposer address","state":"present","note":"The proposing address is on the account."},{"id":"execution-account","label":"Execution account","state":"present","note":"A Squads execution account is linked."},{"id":"decision-market","label":"Decision market","state":"missing","note":"The window settled; the account records the outcome, not the completed TWAP."}]}},{"id":"participation","instrument":{"id":"participation","version":"2.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["58e3aca4bf92a8676fec35e1b5aa2b5910e87bbc8e39053bff17680b0a43f54f"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants.","Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":6,"wallets":5,"sizedVolumeUsd":99.967355,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":48.8633064263829,"topThreeWalletSharePct":79.99346886791193,"multiPoolWallets":1}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["58e3aca4bf92a8676fec35e1b5aa2b5910e87bbc8e39053bff17680b0a43f54f"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"payload":{"kind":"market","prices":{"fail":0.001427487316,"pass":0.001615926635},"defaultOption":"fail","thresholdPct":-3,"leader":"pass","leaderMarginPct":13.20077011458364,"selectedByRule":"pass","recordedSelection":"pass","provisional":false}},{"id":"selection-rule","instrument":{"id":"selection-rule","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["58e3aca4bf92a8676fec35e1b5aa2b5910e87bbc8e39053bff17680b0a43f54f"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics."],"payload":{"kind":"rule-observations","observations":[{"id":"negative-threshold","headline":"Pass wins below fail — threshold ▼ 3.00%","detail":"The configured threshold is negative: the pass market still passes printing less than 3.00% below the fail market. The rule is disclosed; pricing what it is worth is not this lane's claim."},{"id":"team-class-lower-bar","headline":"Team class carries the lower bar","detail":"This window runs under the team option (▼ 3.00%), below the non-team option (▲ 3.00%). The class declaration is proposer-controlled and moves the pass rule."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["58e3aca4bf92a8676fec35e1b5aa2b5910e87bbc8e39053bff17680b0a43f54f"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Retained observations do not establish what happened between reads or why prices changed."],"payload":{"kind":"closing-window","leaderChanged":false,"outcomeFlipped":false,"enteredWith":"pass","closedWith":"pass","closingReads":23}},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"no wallet staked this proposal's launch","evidenceIds":["58e3aca4bf92a8676fec35e1b5aa2b5910e87bbc8e39053bff17680b0a43f54f"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"late-window-outcome-steering","instrument":{"id":"late-window-outcome-steering","version":"3.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"the token's price lane (solana-mainnet-beta/token-spot/5FtV5gisCyCqJHsiCne4pX2r6d2YPRF9Kcfx2DKvmeta/price-usd) begins 2026-09-29T04:51:13.000Z, after this decision closed","evidenceIds":["58e3aca4bf92a8676fec35e1b5aa2b5910e87bbc8e39053bff17680b0a43f54f"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"wash-volume-alignment-inflation","instrument":{"id":"wash-volume-alignment-inflation","version":"4.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["58e3aca4bf92a8676fec35e1b5aa2b5910e87bbc8e39053bff17680b0a43f54f"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety."],"payload":{"kind":"detector","vectorId":"wash-volume-alignment-inflation","classification":"NO-MATCH","matched":0,"evaluated":5,"indicators":[{"id":"paired-branch-executions","matched":false,"evidence":"1 wallet traded more than one option's market after netting arbitrage; none round-tripped the minimum turnover"},{"id":"fixed-size-cluster","matched":false,"evidence":"no fixed-size cadence cluster from a wallet showing wash evidence"},{"id":"near-neutral-net","matched":false,"evidence":"no wallet ended near-neutral after high turnover net of arbitrage"},{"id":"arb-frequency-band","matched":false,"evidence":"no wallet traded inside the frequency band net of arbitrage pairs"},{"id":"stripped-tilt-shift","matched":false,"evidence":"tilt 1.00 → 1.00 (shift 0.00); 0 wallets showing wash evidence"}]}},{"id":"coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly","instrument":{"id":"coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly","version":"3.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"no wallet staked this proposal's launch, and assembly needs at least two","evidenceIds":["58e3aca4bf92a8676fec35e1b5aa2b5910e87bbc8e39053bff17680b0a43f54f"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"prior-decisions","instrument":{"id":"prior-decisions","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["58e3aca4bf92a8676fec35e1b5aa2b5910e87bbc8e39053bff17680b0a43f54f"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Prior selections are historical context, not an estimate of decision quality."],"payload":{"kind":"history","cutoffAt":"2026-09-26T19:23:43.000Z","decisions":[{"id":"4z6vt1RYz8aBrVqQovEecDszNvPFECEmmm2W1Br1Gnua","closedAt":"2026-09-25T18:09:23.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"failed"}]}},{"id":"measured-outcome","instrument":{"id":"measured-outcome","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.","evidenceIds":["58e3aca4bf92a8676fec35e1b5aa2b5910e87bbc8e39053bff17680b0a43f54f"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null}],"interpretations":[{"id":"interpretation:market-selection","statement":"The recorded prices imply pass: the leading challenger's lead over the default is 13.20%, against a -3.00% threshold.","basis":"derivation","resultIds":["market-selection"],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"revisitWhen":["A correction to the final prices or governing rule."]}]},"execution":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/proposal-execution.json","state":"executed","at":"2026-09-28T19:25:01.000Z","evidence":["FqhaSbRV1ZFnYisdA6atew9uLCGF6bq6ri8RW2hcqeDy","7HgC9KkY7pDyfrFXoN7ZcJUJFwqRvfPWJbXTw3QqVQsT","4vrVzzbm7sTHsiCnKndzPL1pTnjrhzFpGR91rzxc3WmfwNRhbi2XrZXg2vynssY426p6nxSUUdvJsMYBLSjgERKP"],"note":"The Squads transaction executed, and its calls match the stored vault instructions."},"outcome":{"status":"recorded","kind":"token-value","measure":"token price","unit":"USD","closedAt":"2026-09-28T19:23:43.000Z","series":{"lane":{"chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","marketKind":"token-spot","marketId":"5FtV5gisCyCqJHsiCne4pX2r6d2YPRF9Kcfx2DKvmeta","series":"price-usd"},"since":"2026-09-28T19:23:43.000Z","path":null},"checkpoints":[{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"close","target":"2026-09-28T19:23:43.000Z","reason":"The price lane for this token begins 2026-09-29T04:51:13.000Z, after this checkpoint; 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The class declaration is proposer-controlled and moves the pass rule."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch","evidenceIds":["939126045901e4fd655bb30ce656f49008bf0cc1cc79c9f7caa049ad940fe6b4"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"no wallet staked this proposal's launch","evidenceIds":["939126045901e4fd655bb30ce656f49008bf0cc1cc79c9f7caa049ad940fe6b4"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"late-window-outcome-steering","instrument":{"id":"late-window-outcome-steering","version":"3.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["939126045901e4fd655bb30ce656f49008bf0cc1cc79c9f7caa049ad940fe6b4"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["A pattern match does not establish intent; 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price","unit":"USD","closedAt":"2026-09-05T08:27:07.000Z","series":{"lane":{"chain":"solana","marketKind":"spot","marketId":"basket","series":"price-usd"},"since":"2026-09-05T08:27:07.000Z","path":"/api/organization-history?slug=basket&series=price-usd"},"checkpoints":[{"status":"recorded","checkpoint":"close","target":"2026-09-05T08:27:07.000Z","at":"2026-09-05T08:04:06.967Z","value":0.000923579776,"source":"solana/spot/basket/price-usd","provenance":"api:organization-quotes"},{"status":"recorded","checkpoint":"1d","target":"2026-09-06T08:27:07.000Z","at":"2026-09-06T08:51:04.234Z","value":0.000954144451,"source":"solana/spot/basket/price-usd","provenance":"api:organization-quotes"},{"status":"recorded","checkpoint":"7d","target":"2026-09-12T08:27:07.000Z","at":"2026-09-12T08:25:53.901Z","value":0.004457411722,"source":"solana/spot/basket/price-usd","provenance":"api:organization-quotes"},{"status":"recorded","checkpoint":"30d","target":"2026-10-05T08:27:07.000Z","at":"2026-10-05T08:30:03.878Z","value":0.004792627994,"source":"solana/spot/basket/price-usd","provenance":"api:organization-quotes"}]},"impact":{"status":"recorded","forecast":{"selectedOptionId":"pass","referenceOptionId":"fail","reference":"default","selectedPrice":0.001017735936,"referencePrice":0.0007856458749999999,"forecastPct":29.54130714426524,"basis":"Final 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transfer, mint or burn and no SOL transfer (account-creation rent is not counted)."},"agents":[{"role":"proposer","account":"AtovZb5xYptRJghNJbuXo3Uku4Tvn6cxccGgtU9MsWys","name":null}],"authorities":[{"role":"dao","account":"GEZF81Us2ZMD9cozjEra6NXxi1tC2AdjvZXxKWcdVEgm","name":"Basket"}]},{"id":"metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-GXdWao4Cy6EsvvS9atMb1kCPEAFwPXBe5kKCeLDtRJNm","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-GXdWao4Cy6EsvvS9atMb1kCPEAFwPXBe5kKCeLDtRJNm/","engine":"metadao","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"GXdWao4Cy6EsvvS9atMb1kCPEAFwPXBe5kKCeLDtRJNm","decider":{"account":"GxpJkPEsPmuRCCTNnfZaDKg4X3gf4ZPgmqgFqtibaPtK","name":"Loyal"},"title":"Loyal decision 2","openedAt":"2025-12-23T12:55:27.000Z","closesAt":"2025-12-26T12:55:27.000Z","wallets":null,"counted":true,"form":{"engine":"metadao","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","options":[{"id":"pass","label":"Pass","noOp":false},{"id":"fail","label":"Fail (no 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the Squads execute that carried out the decision moved, at every call depth beneath it."},"agents":[{"role":"proposer","account":"ELT1uRmtFvYP6WSrc4mCZaW7VVbcdkcKAj39aHSVCmwH","name":null}],"authorities":[{"role":"dao","account":"GxpJkPEsPmuRCCTNnfZaDKg4X3gf4ZPgmqgFqtibaPtK","name":"Loyal"}]},{"id":"metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-Ga9kSRYnbgiLxPKQjnCmuJXCuCkHEMbCnUVJJ4xCxe6i","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-Ga9kSRYnbgiLxPKQjnCmuJXCuCkHEMbCnUVJJ4xCxe6i/","engine":"metadao","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"Ga9kSRYnbgiLxPKQjnCmuJXCuCkHEMbCnUVJJ4xCxe6i","decider":{"account":"5BhKSFDV3mNzUxCaAyMZtbakhkbApwzLBD4gnQmNoz3Z","name":"Areal"},"title":"Areal decision 2","openedAt":"2026-10-10T23:36:51.000Z","closesAt":"2026-10-13T23:36:51.000Z","wallets":null,"counted":true,"form":{"engine":"metadao","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","options":[{"id":"pass","label":"Pass","noOp":false},{"id":"fail","label":"Fail (no 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only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":84,"wallets":6,"sizedVolumeUsd":1687.464449,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":48.46950882341225,"topThreeWalletSharePct":93.42208364355295,"multiPoolWallets":2}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["ea5364ce74373710d1a85b8f53159ad39126f335aad81bf9c10eea9d23e28e48"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal 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The class declaration is proposer-controlled and moves the pass rule."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["ea5364ce74373710d1a85b8f53159ad39126f335aad81bf9c10eea9d23e28e48"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Retained observations do not establish what happened between reads or why prices changed."],"payload":{"kind":"closing-window","leaderChanged":false,"outcomeFlipped":false,"enteredWith":"fail","closedWith":"fail","closingReads":24}},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"no wallet staked this proposal's launch","evidenceIds":["ea5364ce74373710d1a85b8f53159ad39126f335aad81bf9c10eea9d23e28e48"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"late-window-outcome-steering","instrument":{"id":"late-window-outcome-steering","version":"3.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["ea5364ce74373710d1a85b8f53159ad39126f335aad81bf9c10eea9d23e28e48"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["A pattern match does not establish intent; 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no asset moved: the execution made no token transfer, mint or burn and no SOL transfer (account-creation rent is not counted)."},"agents":[{"role":"proposer","account":"BXxeKPBN8BRWqGmXaRQKrkvJe4geL654vEeGrGCUmq2D","name":null}],"authorities":[{"role":"dao","account":"3kRM3ALGVZ6n2aNxzxUqZPpsuts5NRWRMN3FoXHcP2hy","name":"Tset"}]},{"id":"metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-92kEtJgE2ghT8WXxbJ1kcSrNodKisdZAJqHosoHzbYy4","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-92kEtJgE2ghT8WXxbJ1kcSrNodKisdZAJqHosoHzbYy4/","engine":"metadao","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"92kEtJgE2ghT8WXxbJ1kcSrNodKisdZAJqHosoHzbYy4","decider":{"account":"Ffi7Ba7w2fhiCZ9H4ZRixuoi1peCVsL3YBc1Ay2JnD4A","name":"Laso"},"title":"Laso decision 1","openedAt":"2026-09-26T23:00:13.000Z","closesAt":"2026-09-29T23:00:13.000Z","wallets":null,"counted":true,"form":{"engine":"metadao","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","options":[{"id":"pass","label":"Pass","noOp":false},{"id":"fail","label":"Fail (no change)","noOp":true}],"measure":{"kind":"token-value","metric":"time-weighted conditional token price over the window","thresholdPct":-3},"selectedOptionIds":["pass"]},"purpose":{"status":"withheld","reason":"The proposal's Squads transaction carries no memo text."},"knowledge":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/lane-findings.json","observedAt":"2026-10-13T04:45:30.000Z","rosterVersion":"3.0.0","readings":[{"name":"evidence","label":"Evidence","status":"filed"},{"name":"attack","label":"Attack","status":"filed"},{"name":"market","label":"Market","status":"filed"},{"name":"playbooks","label":"Playbooks","status":"standing"},{"name":"learning","label":"Learning","status":"standing"},{"name":"claims","label":"Claims","status":"standing"}]},"analysis":{"schemaVersion":1,"subject":{"engine":"metadao","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"92kEtJgE2ghT8WXxbJ1kcSrNodKisdZAJqHosoHzbYy4"},"evaluatedAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","cutoffAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","evidence":[{"id":"b9748c8c5b598840b8cc7ed8ea57dcd582195caaab9aa4ba352a0b19136869dd","source":"retained-input:b9748c8c5b598840b8cc7ed8ea57dcd582195caaab9aa4ba352a0b19136869dd","revision":"b9748c8c5b598840b8cc7ed8ea57dcd582195caaab9aa4ba352a0b19136869dd","digest":"b9748c8c5b598840b8cc7ed8ea57dcd582195caaab9aa4ba352a0b19136869dd","observedAt":null,"knownAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z"}],"results":[{"id":"disclosures","instrument":{"id":"disclosures","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"partial","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["b9748c8c5b598840b8cc7ed8ea57dcd582195caaab9aa4ba352a0b19136869dd"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution."],"payload":{"kind":"disclosures","fields":[{"id":"proposal-account","label":"Proposal account","state":"present","note":"Confirmed onchain at the address shown."},{"id":"proposal-class","label":"Proposal class","state":"present","note":"Declared team class."},{"id":"decision-threshold","label":"Decision threshold","state":"missing","note":"Not fixed yet; the DAO account's options are team ▼ 3.00% / non-team ▲ 3.00%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close stamps are on the account."},{"id":"proposer-stake","label":"Proposer stake","state":"missing","note":"No stake amount decodes from the account."},{"id":"proposer-identity","label":"Proposer address","state":"present","note":"The proposing address is on the account."},{"id":"execution-account","label":"Execution account","state":"present","note":"A Squads execution account is linked."},{"id":"decision-market","label":"Decision market","state":"missing","note":"The window settled; the account records the outcome, not the completed TWAP."}]}},{"id":"participation","instrument":{"id":"participation","version":"2.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["b9748c8c5b598840b8cc7ed8ea57dcd582195caaab9aa4ba352a0b19136869dd"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants.","Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":11,"wallets":8,"sizedVolumeUsd":1502.332246,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":60.06862459371055,"topThreeWalletSharePct":94.59072330928323,"multiPoolWallets":0}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["b9748c8c5b598840b8cc7ed8ea57dcd582195caaab9aa4ba352a0b19136869dd"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"payload":{"kind":"market","prices":{"fail":0.120051091943,"pass":0.12083799025599999},"defaultOption":"fail","thresholdPct":-3,"leader":"pass","leaderMarginPct":0.6554695174064828,"selectedByRule":"pass","recordedSelection":"pass","provisional":false}},{"id":"selection-rule","instrument":{"id":"selection-rule","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["b9748c8c5b598840b8cc7ed8ea57dcd582195caaab9aa4ba352a0b19136869dd"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. 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price","unit":"USD","closedAt":"2026-09-29T23:00:13.000Z","series":{"lane":{"chain":"solana","marketKind":"spot","marketId":"laso-finance","series":"price-usd"},"since":"2026-09-29T23:00:13.000Z","path":"/api/organization-history?slug=laso-finance&series=price-usd"},"checkpoints":[{"status":"recorded","checkpoint":"close","target":"2026-09-29T23:00:13.000Z","at":"2026-09-29T23:00:07.859Z","value":0.11914911795,"source":"solana/spot/laso-finance/price-usd","provenance":"api:organization-quotes"},{"status":"recorded","checkpoint":"1d","target":"2026-09-30T23:00:13.000Z","at":"2026-09-30T23:00:06.150Z","value":0.130190859762,"source":"solana/spot/laso-finance/price-usd","provenance":"api:organization-quotes"},{"status":"recorded","checkpoint":"7d","target":"2026-10-06T23:00:13.000Z","at":"2026-10-06T23:01:15.119Z","value":0.127965319076,"source":"solana/spot/laso-finance/price-usd","provenance":"api:organization-quotes"},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","target":"2026-10-29T23:00:13.000Z","reason":"Not yet reached: due 2026-10-29T23:00:13.000Z."}]},"impact":{"status":"recorded","forecast":{"selectedOptionId":"pass","referenceOptionId":"fail","reference":"default","selectedPrice":0.12083799025599999,"referencePrice":0.120051091943,"forecastPct":0.6554695174064928,"basis":"Final pass and fail TWAPs at finalization (2026-09-29T23:01:00.000Z), normalized conditional prices.","source":"trade-ledger/metadao/92kEtJgE2ghT8WXxbJ1kcSrNodKisdZAJqHosoHzbYy4/finalization (FinalizeProposalEvent 3b6FgnRgadGEUqvXhaFMDmtU2t4dtAK3NYSdj1QSuVrAaHKnJ214SANU6TWNmc5vWnWkisscaXVrY2Dt2swWqpV2#0)"},"realised":[{"status":"recorded","checkpoint":"1d","changePct":9.267162025180586,"from":"2026-09-29T23:00:07.859Z","to":"2026-09-30T23:00:06.150Z"},{"status":"recorded","checkpoint":"7d","changePct":7.39930037056562,"from":"2026-09-29T23:00:07.859Z","to":"2026-10-06T23:01:15.119Z"},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","reason":"Not yet reached: due 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no earlier reading is on the record."},{"status":"recorded","checkpoint":"1d","target":"2026-04-07T17:02:14.000Z","at":"2026-04-07T17:00:00.000Z","value":0.517235206265996,"source":"solana/spot/p2p-protocol/price-usd","provenance":"coingecko:contract-market-chart-range"},{"status":"recorded","checkpoint":"7d","target":"2026-04-13T17:02:14.000Z","at":"2026-04-13T17:00:00.000Z","value":0.5373881098225042,"source":"solana/spot/p2p-protocol/price-usd","provenance":"coingecko:contract-market-chart-range"},{"status":"recorded","checkpoint":"30d","target":"2026-05-06T17:02:14.000Z","at":"2026-05-06T17:00:00.000Z","value":0.5122785335413359,"source":"solana/spot/p2p-protocol/price-usd","provenance":"coingecko:contract-market-chart-range"}]},"impact":{"status":"recorded","forecast":{"selectedOptionId":"pass","referenceOptionId":"fail","reference":"default","selectedPrice":0.507535648102,"referencePrice":0.487339573715,"forecastPct":4.144148244117529,"basis":"Final pass and fail TWAPs at finalization (2026-04-06T17:03:03.000Z), normalized conditional prices.","source":"trade-ledger/metadao/AerjTFvEUDDfgpCCeMfgR1v9FtH4UiEgHCehBhV8CExF/finalization (FinalizeProposalEvent 3t6RpTCpBMu9K7NK3tnEMRxAg52REjpQRPxgVUZhWgnawcYPTSk1dDfYCJumgR2inUFJxPNAJEvDvDWVYSWwuGt6#0)"},"realised":[{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"1d","reason":"The close reading is withheld: The price lane for this token begins 2026-04-06T18:00:00.000Z, after this checkpoint; no earlier reading is on the record."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"7d","reason":"The close reading is withheld: The price lane for this token begins 2026-04-06T18:00:00.000Z, after this checkpoint; no earlier reading is on the record."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","reason":"The close reading is withheld: The price lane for this token begins 2026-04-06T18:00:00.000Z, after this checkpoint; no earlier reading is on the record."}]},"capital":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/decision-capital.json","state":"moved","movements":[{"kind":"transfer","asset":"EPjFWdd5AufqSSqeM2qN1xzybapC8G4wEGGkZwyTDt1v","symbol":"USDC","rawAmount":"500000000000","decimals":6,"from":"iXhNzbR1wJigh6e1mybgwmatkKT5F68tWYb1SjNNaEb","fromOwner":"9Rykf7i9fxUaXD8iD6GSGpRaoWQQP51Uiq1oxSE9oDzx","to":"4CAXXUvKhP4xfaawXPHbS7DxVLhtv5pkgQ5VbgRCs8XA","toOwner":"3CbL2EJTxmr1nmBRbjZrMBW3kDsWsjnc1mEKXSPcBrWF","transaction":"2qFrtShBDUxgLVkueQzc3x7mps1gFF8sQHzhsfUvLgZw4RxHNyFJg4kwSnz1ufsVmgkwzQTjtLd5PgCF2cr6D9De","basis":"token-balance-delta","attribution":null}],"transaction":"2qFrtShBDUxgLVkueQzc3x7mps1gFF8sQHzhsfUvLgZw4RxHNyFJg4kwSnz1ufsVmgkwzQTjtLd5PgCF2cr6D9De","note":"What the Squads execute that carried out the decision moved, at every call depth beneath it."},"agents":[{"role":"proposer","account":"tSTp6B6kE9o6ZaTmHm2ZwnJBBtgd3x112tapxFhmBEQ","name":null}],"authorities":[{"role":"dao","account":"CFYmVUEYikV8DaKDNs6WSHC5uAxG6T7KqFBCsAebACFu","name":"P2P Protocol"}]},{"id":"metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-BMquEDGFjaNBHAgZC7NmUJuTrjK1odtvJ8oF3PXFuywN","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-BMquEDGFjaNBHAgZC7NmUJuTrjK1odtvJ8oF3PXFuywN/","engine":"metadao","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"BMquEDGFjaNBHAgZC7NmUJuTrjK1odtvJ8oF3PXFuywN","decider":{"account":"CATL7SAzmnytyYmr9sVs92PQ2YDWowS3LN2xz3MMnB6H","name":"Sanctum"},"title":"Sanctum decision 1","openedAt":"2026-09-16T08:02:02.000Z","closesAt":"2026-09-19T08:02:02.000Z","wallets":null,"counted":true,"form":{"engine":"metadao","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","options":[{"id":"pass","label":"Pass","noOp":false},{"id":"fail","label":"Fail (no change)","noOp":true}],"measure":{"kind":"token-value","metric":"time-weighted conditional token price over the window","thresholdPct":-1.5},"selectedOptionIds":["pass"]},"purpose":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/proposal-text.json","title":"Sanctum decision 1","text":["Authorize the Sanctum team to burn the remaining Community Reserve of 259M CLOUD."],"url":null},"knowledge":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/lane-findings.json","observedAt":"2026-10-13T04:45:30.000Z","rosterVersion":"3.0.0","readings":[{"name":"evidence","label":"Evidence","status":"filed"},{"name":"attack","label":"Attack","status":"filed"},{"name":"market","label":"Market","status":"filed"},{"name":"playbooks","label":"Playbooks","status":"standing"},{"name":"learning","label":"Learning","status":"standing"},{"name":"claims","label":"Claims","status":"standing"}]},"analysis":{"schemaVersion":1,"subject":{"engine":"metadao","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"BMquEDGFjaNBHAgZC7NmUJuTrjK1odtvJ8oF3PXFuywN"},"evaluatedAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","cutoffAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","evidence":[{"id":"f9a8462a0c1ef4395b139342899500813fef77f909f0acf6f11092f8b0673023","source":"retained-input:f9a8462a0c1ef4395b139342899500813fef77f909f0acf6f11092f8b0673023","revision":"f9a8462a0c1ef4395b139342899500813fef77f909f0acf6f11092f8b0673023","digest":"f9a8462a0c1ef4395b139342899500813fef77f909f0acf6f11092f8b0673023","observedAt":null,"knownAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z"}],"results":[{"id":"disclosures","instrument":{"id":"disclosures","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"partial","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["f9a8462a0c1ef4395b139342899500813fef77f909f0acf6f11092f8b0673023"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution."],"payload":{"kind":"disclosures","fields":[{"id":"proposal-account","label":"Proposal account","state":"present","note":"Confirmed onchain at the address shown."},{"id":"proposal-class","label":"Proposal class","state":"present","note":"Declared team class."},{"id":"decision-threshold","label":"Decision threshold","state":"missing","note":"Not fixed yet; the DAO account's options are team ▼ 1.50% / non-team ▲ 1.50%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close stamps are on the account."},{"id":"proposer-stake","label":"Proposer stake","state":"missing","note":"No stake amount decodes from the account."},{"id":"proposer-identity","label":"Proposer address","state":"present","note":"The proposing address is on the account."},{"id":"execution-account","label":"Execution account","state":"present","note":"A Squads execution account is linked."},{"id":"decision-market","label":"Decision market","state":"missing","note":"The window settled; the account records the outcome, not the completed TWAP."}]}},{"id":"participation","instrument":{"id":"participation","version":"2.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["f9a8462a0c1ef4395b139342899500813fef77f909f0acf6f11092f8b0673023"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants.","Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":40,"wallets":35,"sizedVolumeUsd":2319.841837,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":21.71015264779019,"topThreeWalletSharePct":62.61595858959414,"multiPoolWallets":2}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["f9a8462a0c1ef4395b139342899500813fef77f909f0acf6f11092f8b0673023"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"payload":{"kind":"market","prices":{"fail":0.037975283000000006,"pass":0.038729307000000004},"defaultOption":"fail","thresholdPct":-1.5,"leader":"pass","leaderMarginPct":1.9855651898630982,"selectedByRule":"pass","recordedSelection":"pass","provisional":false}},{"id":"selection-rule","instrument":{"id":"selection-rule","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["f9a8462a0c1ef4395b139342899500813fef77f909f0acf6f11092f8b0673023"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics."],"payload":{"kind":"rule-observations","observations":[{"id":"negative-threshold","headline":"Pass wins below fail — threshold ▼ 1.50%","detail":"The configured threshold is negative: the pass market still passes printing less than 1.50% below the fail market. The rule is disclosed; pricing what it is worth is not this lane's claim."},{"id":"team-class-lower-bar","headline":"Team class carries the lower bar","detail":"This window runs under the team option (▼ 1.50%), below the non-team option (▲ 1.50%). The class declaration is proposer-controlled and moves the pass rule."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["f9a8462a0c1ef4395b139342899500813fef77f909f0acf6f11092f8b0673023"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Retained observations do not establish what happened between reads or why prices changed."],"payload":{"kind":"closing-window","leaderChanged":false,"outcomeFlipped":false,"enteredWith":"pass","closedWith":"pass","closingReads":24}},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"no wallet staked this proposal's 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evidence"}]}},{"id":"coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly","instrument":{"id":"coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly","version":"3.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"no wallet staked this proposal's launch, and assembly needs at least two","evidenceIds":["f9a8462a0c1ef4395b139342899500813fef77f909f0acf6f11092f8b0673023"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"prior-decisions","instrument":{"id":"prior-decisions","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["f9a8462a0c1ef4395b139342899500813fef77f909f0acf6f11092f8b0673023"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Prior selections are historical context, not an estimate of decision quality."],"payload":{"kind":"history","cutoffAt":"2026-09-17T08:02:02.000Z","decisions":[]}},{"id":"measured-outcome","instrument":{"id":"measured-outcome","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.","evidenceIds":["f9a8462a0c1ef4395b139342899500813fef77f909f0acf6f11092f8b0673023"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null}],"interpretations":[{"id":"interpretation:market-selection","statement":"The recorded prices imply pass: the leading challenger's lead over the default is 1.99%, against a -1.50% threshold.","basis":"derivation","resultIds":["market-selection"],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"revisitWhen":["A correction to the final prices or governing 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price","unit":"USD","closedAt":"2026-09-19T08:02:02.000Z","series":{"lane":{"chain":"solana","marketKind":"spot","marketId":"sanctum","series":"price-usd"},"since":"2026-09-19T08:02:02.000Z","path":"/api/organization-history?slug=sanctum&series=price-usd"},"checkpoints":[{"status":"recorded","checkpoint":"close","target":"2026-09-19T08:02:02.000Z","at":"2026-09-19T08:00:06.770Z","value":0.038285268341,"source":"solana/spot/sanctum/price-usd","provenance":"api:organization-quotes"},{"status":"recorded","checkpoint":"1d","target":"2026-09-20T08:02:02.000Z","at":"2026-09-20T08:00:05.862Z","value":0.040554204315,"source":"solana/spot/sanctum/price-usd","provenance":"api:organization-quotes"},{"status":"recorded","checkpoint":"7d","target":"2026-09-26T08:02:02.000Z","at":"2026-09-26T08:00:07.978Z","value":0.05962986124,"source":"solana/spot/sanctum/price-usd","provenance":"api:organization-quotes"},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","target":"2026-10-19T08:02:02.000Z","reason":"Not yet reached: the checkpoint's window is open until 2026-10-20T08:02:02.000Z."}]},"impact":{"status":"recorded","forecast":{"selectedOptionId":"pass","referenceOptionId":"fail","reference":"default","selectedPrice":0.038729307000000004,"referencePrice":0.037975283000000006,"forecastPct":1.9855651898631033,"basis":"Final pass and fail TWAPs at finalization (2026-09-19T08:03:01.000Z), normalized conditional prices.","source":"trade-ledger/metadao/BMquEDGFjaNBHAgZC7NmUJuTrjK1odtvJ8oF3PXFuywN/finalization (FinalizeProposalEvent e2cqZPNEUo7FLmxmCof1scw4hKpGhTEpGBATV2WJQcpcyn2FZwJR2TspUyhTVVSd58d3291axxpqhKSQJSLh9hG#0)"},"realised":[{"status":"recorded","checkpoint":"1d","changePct":5.926394334737295,"from":"2026-09-19T08:00:06.770Z","to":"2026-09-20T08:00:05.862Z"},{"status":"recorded","checkpoint":"7d","changePct":55.75145173043465,"from":"2026-09-19T08:00:06.770Z","to":"2026-09-26T08:00:07.978Z"},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","reason":"Not yet reached: the checkpoint's window is open until 2026-10-20T08:02:02.000Z."}]},"capital":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/decision-capital.json","state":"none","movements":[],"transaction":"3aFPu2dzYNU43MFhMsbfSKtR6uqW7CapYQ1NZNhagLHoEy763e16tL6g2XYN73j82vLjWbSg2ZSDewCtvsqHE9Sz","note":"Executed; no asset moved: the execution made no token transfer, mint or burn and no SOL transfer (account-creation rent is not counted)."},"agents":[{"role":"proposer","account":"488NB3ymS3eDpKLJj3Ds2aFAetu8yKS6Hyr7MxWYhuvx","name":null}],"authorities":[{"role":"dao","account":"CATL7SAzmnytyYmr9sVs92PQ2YDWowS3LN2xz3MMnB6H","name":"Sanctum"}]},{"id":"metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-Bb8gWoduPTsZ1Jqg2qazvgQq87xTaf1TyshjnWkEfSPY","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-Bb8gWoduPTsZ1Jqg2qazvgQq87xTaf1TyshjnWkEfSPY/","engine":"metadao","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"Bb8gWoduPTsZ1Jqg2qazvgQq87xTaf1TyshjnWkEfSPY","decider":{"account":"6sQHygsfhAYrkQiGnyFHQ6s1s8ycJoajnNaVVuS3duzv","name":"Kimia"},"title":"Kimia 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the DAO account's options are team ▼ 3.00% / non-team ▲ 3.00%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close stamps are on the account."},{"id":"proposer-stake","label":"Proposer stake","state":"missing","note":"No stake amount decodes from the account."},{"id":"proposer-identity","label":"Proposer address","state":"present","note":"The proposing address is on the account."},{"id":"execution-account","label":"Execution account","state":"present","note":"A Squads execution account is linked."},{"id":"decision-market","label":"Decision market","state":"missing","note":"The window settled; the account records the outcome, not the completed TWAP."}]}},{"id":"participation","instrument":{"id":"participation","version":"2.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["84d8a61fe9acb20540a2b491eed3d3d3ff055120c891bcd441a0c66e0e77e165"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants.","Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":204,"wallets":102,"sizedVolumeUsd":25005.253013999994,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":36.942046400522784,"topThreeWalletSharePct":75.54059210848342,"multiPoolWallets":6}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["84d8a61fe9acb20540a2b491eed3d3d3ff055120c891bcd441a0c66e0e77e165"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"payload":{"kind":"market","prices":{"fail":0.038981428153,"pass":0.051646564703999996},"defaultOption":"fail","thresholdPct":-3,"leader":"pass","leaderMarginPct":32.49018096846021,"selectedByRule":"pass","recordedSelection":"pass","provisional":false}},{"id":"selection-rule","instrument":{"id":"selection-rule","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["84d8a61fe9acb20540a2b491eed3d3d3ff055120c891bcd441a0c66e0e77e165"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. 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the DAO account's options are team 0.00% / non-team ▲ 1.50%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close stamps are on the account."},{"id":"proposer-stake","label":"Proposer stake","state":"missing","note":"No stake amount decodes from the account."},{"id":"proposer-identity","label":"Proposer address","state":"present","note":"The proposing address is on the account."},{"id":"execution-account","label":"Execution account","state":"present","note":"A Squads execution account is linked."},{"id":"decision-market","label":"Decision market","state":"missing","note":"The window settled; the account records the outcome, not the completed TWAP."}]}},{"id":"participation","instrument":{"id":"participation","version":"2.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["896124c42f1c06c6f7cf5af117d7b1fe48eeb16dec5c18d6f246a01bad103834"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants.","Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":4,"wallets":2,"sizedVolumeUsd":12.963330000000001,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":92.28593270401973,"topThreeWalletSharePct":100,"multiPoolWallets":1}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["896124c42f1c06c6f7cf5af117d7b1fe48eeb16dec5c18d6f246a01bad103834"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"payload":{"kind":"market","prices":{"fail":0.00099971818,"pass":0.001024428354},"defaultOption":"fail","thresholdPct":1.5,"leader":"pass","leaderMarginPct":2.4717139784334026,"selectedByRule":"pass","recordedSelection":"pass","provisional":false}},{"id":"selection-rule","instrument":{"id":"selection-rule","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["896124c42f1c06c6f7cf5af117d7b1fe48eeb16dec5c18d6f246a01bad103834"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. 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It is absent, never zero."},"impact":{"status":"recorded","forecast":{"selectedOptionId":"0","referenceOptionId":"1","reference":"runner-up","selectedPrice":5116726,"referencePrice":5116726,"forecastPct":0,"basis":"Final option TWAPs from each option's pool oracle, in raw observation units.","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json"},"realised":[{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"1d","reason":"This token's only pairs sit under the dust floor ($1,000 of liquidity and under $100 a day traded), so no price is recorded. It is absent, never zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"7d","reason":"This token's only pairs sit under the dust floor ($1,000 of liquidity and under $100 a day traded), so no price is recorded. It is absent, never zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","reason":"This token's only pairs sit under the dust floor ($1,000 of liquidity and under $100 a day traded), so no price is recorded. It is absent, never zero."}]},"capital":{"status":"withheld","reason":"The chain has not been read for what this decision moved yet."},"agents":[],"authorities":[{"role":"moderator","account":"FX9Wd7iFEez1ZuyLJG5WUVxFpk88AUj9PUqAVebd4Bho","name":"SURFTEST"}]},{"id":"combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-FURJC9HzNwcrXpGbP4qVSe1x4h8YvpNESnLs43TB34d8","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-FURJC9HzNwcrXpGbP4qVSe1x4h8YvpNESnLs43TB34d8/","engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"FURJC9HzNwcrXpGbP4qVSe1x4h8YvpNESnLs43TB34d8","decider":{"account":"B6zHsRjFRCodoapVxZGUFyF9BGkNuGhQ8pqE3gVMGsZ8","name":"ZC"},"title":"Combinator Transition from Memecoin to Product Token (Pt.1)","openedAt":"2026-01-26T16:35:14.000Z","closesAt":"2026-01-27T16:35:14.000Z","wallets":3,"counted":false,"form":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","options":[{"id":"0","label":"No","noOp":true},{"id":"1","label":"Yes","noOp":false}],"measure":{"kind":"token-value","metric":"time-weighted conditional token price over the window","thresholdPct":0},"selectedOptionIds":["1"]},"purpose":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json","title":"Combinator Transition from Memecoin to Product Token (Pt.1)","text":["No","Yes"],"url":null},"knowledge":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/lane-findings.json","observedAt":"2026-10-13T04:47:50.441Z","rosterVersion":"3.0.0","readings":[{"name":"evidence","label":"Evidence","status":"withheld"},{"name":"attack","label":"Attack","status":"withheld"},{"name":"market","label":"Market","status":"filed"},{"name":"playbooks","label":"Playbooks","status":"standing"},{"name":"learning","label":"Learning","status":"standing"},{"name":"claims","label":"Claims","status":"standing"}]},"analysis":{"schemaVersion":1,"subject":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"FURJC9HzNwcrXpGbP4qVSe1x4h8YvpNESnLs43TB34d8"},"evaluatedAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","cutoffAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","evidence":[{"id":"91653f630ae2451bedc5e1168ad9b73e1f0b4380feaeef26bf6e1656f6ba7407","source":"retained-input:91653f630ae2451bedc5e1168ad9b73e1f0b4380feaeef26bf6e1656f6ba7407","revision":"91653f630ae2451bedc5e1168ad9b73e1f0b4380feaeef26bf6e1656f6ba7407","digest":"91653f630ae2451bedc5e1168ad9b73e1f0b4380feaeef26bf6e1656f6ba7407","observedAt":null,"knownAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z"}],"results":[{"id":"disclosures","instrument":{"id":"disclosures","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["91653f630ae2451bedc5e1168ad9b73e1f0b4380feaeef26bf6e1656f6ba7407"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution."],"payload":{"kind":"disclosures","fields":[{"id":"decision-account","label":"Decision account","state":"present","note":"Confirmed onchain at the address shown."},{"id":"options","label":"Options","state":"present","note":"2 options: No; 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60%"},{"id":"BJtqMeAPehNY7ZkXE1bec4HDNSGZdgML7LDEiBZipiE4","closedAt":"2025-12-31T21:25:04.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"EpsQdApesGMrXRzPKM4KQ8eNXtBdA3DN4SHwTxDB5bJ8","closedAt":"2025-12-23T20:07:44.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected Yes"},{"id":"CupW8MuDXbNdevFaW7e6xeXiiQKuKpmefh5E4PvAT3Ch","closedAt":"2025-12-11T17:40:38.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected Yes"},{"id":"3h2G833wL2c4MNcqTfZ81C9SLFJSv8u3ZDhPA5MpW36X","closedAt":"2025-12-10T17:34:15.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected 50%"},{"id":"Hrg9Lt2NaC1WRqSxUyuFS8kRPdszyMX4gJo9pVFLeyWC","closedAt":"2025-12-09T18:42:10.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected 100K ZC"},{"id":"B6mAXaerYTxuRshtBaZXRFRWJSwYw6nQDLbiNB5ro5uj","closedAt":"2025-12-08T17:12:42.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected $1000 ZC"},{"id":"FioDXuz5ndh5tSSgrKkwc6vJf7CjJqzRv1xaXVKyFkPL","closedAt":"2025-12-07T11:59:05.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the 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It is absent, never zero."}]},"capital":{"status":"withheld","reason":"The chain has not been read for what this decision moved yet."},"agents":[],"authorities":[{"role":"moderator","account":"FX9Wd7iFEez1ZuyLJG5WUVxFpk88AUj9PUqAVebd4Bho","name":"SURFTEST"}]},{"id":"combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-4Kg48TAV6YHdu3vGZHqoBL2Hzakt1SZmdymnGAeMb5G1","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-4Kg48TAV6YHdu3vGZHqoBL2Hzakt1SZmdymnGAeMb5G1/","engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"4Kg48TAV6YHdu3vGZHqoBL2Hzakt1SZmdymnGAeMb5G1","decider":{"account":"FX9Wd7iFEez1ZuyLJG5WUVxFpk88AUj9PUqAVebd4Bho","name":"SURFTEST"},"title":"testtwap2","openedAt":"2026-01-27T17:06:40.000Z","closesAt":"2026-01-27T17:12:40.000Z","wallets":1,"counted":false,"form":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","options":[{"id":"0","label":"No","noOp":true},{"id":"1","label":"Yes","noOp":false},{"id":"2","label":"Abstain","noOp":false}],"measure":{"kind":"token-value","metric":"time-weighted conditional token price over the window","thresholdPct":0},"selectedOptionIds":["1"]},"purpose":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json","title":"testtwap2","text":["No","Yes","Abstain"],"url":null},"knowledge":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/lane-findings.json","observedAt":"2026-10-13T04:47:50.441Z","rosterVersion":"3.0.0","readings":[{"name":"evidence","label":"Evidence","status":"withheld"},{"name":"attack","label":"Attack","status":"withheld"},{"name":"market","label":"Market","status":"filed"},{"name":"playbooks","label":"Playbooks","status":"standing"},{"name":"learning","label":"Learning","status":"standing"},{"name":"claims","label":"Claims","status":"standing"}]},"analysis":{"schemaVersion":1,"subject":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"4Kg48TAV6YHdu3vGZHqoBL2Hzakt1SZmdymnGAeMb5G1"},"evaluatedAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","cutoffAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","evidence":[{"id":"dfb3e4b6e81f29869fcb56b8d5c020cfafbe32f8503bd6dc7679dd7ee4faf41c","source":"retained-input:dfb3e4b6e81f29869fcb56b8d5c020cfafbe32f8503bd6dc7679dd7ee4faf41c","revision":"dfb3e4b6e81f29869fcb56b8d5c020cfafbe32f8503bd6dc7679dd7ee4faf41c","digest":"dfb3e4b6e81f29869fcb56b8d5c020cfafbe32f8503bd6dc7679dd7ee4faf41c","observedAt":null,"knownAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z"}],"results":[{"id":"disclosures","instrument":{"id":"disclosures","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["dfb3e4b6e81f29869fcb56b8d5c020cfafbe32f8503bd6dc7679dd7ee4faf41c"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution."],"payload":{"kind":"disclosures","fields":[{"id":"decision-account","label":"Decision account","state":"present","note":"Confirmed onchain at the address shown."},{"id":"options","label":"Options","state":"present","note":"3 options: No; 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It is absent, never zero."},"impact":{"status":"recorded","forecast":{"selectedOptionId":"1","referenceOptionId":"0","reference":"default","selectedPrice":3589202,"referencePrice":3587331,"forecastPct":0.0521557670591255,"basis":"Final option TWAPs from each option's pool oracle, in raw observation units.","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json"},"realised":[{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"1d","reason":"This token's only pairs sit under the dust floor ($1,000 of liquidity and under $100 a day traded), so no price is recorded. It is absent, never zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"7d","reason":"This token's only pairs sit under the dust floor ($1,000 of liquidity and under $100 a day traded), so no price is recorded. It is absent, never zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","reason":"This token's only pairs sit under the dust floor ($1,000 of liquidity and under $100 a day traded), so no price is recorded. It is absent, never zero."}]},"capital":{"status":"withheld","reason":"The chain has not been read for what this decision moved yet."},"agents":[],"authorities":[{"role":"moderator","account":"FX9Wd7iFEez1ZuyLJG5WUVxFpk88AUj9PUqAVebd4Bho","name":"SURFTEST"}]},{"id":"combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-3s86EuaawQBe8ZbsbxK2hP82M1m3tyoAz9hwov3UKSQL","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-3s86EuaawQBe8ZbsbxK2hP82M1m3tyoAz9hwov3UKSQL/","engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"3s86EuaawQBe8ZbsbxK2hP82M1m3tyoAz9hwov3UKSQL","decider":{"account":"FX9Wd7iFEez1ZuyLJG5WUVxFpk88AUj9PUqAVebd4Bho","name":"SURFTEST"},"title":"TEST TWAP","openedAt":"2026-01-27T19:06:28.000Z","closesAt":"2026-01-27T19:12:28.000Z","wallets":0,"counted":false,"form":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","options":[{"id":"0","label":"No","noOp":true},{"id":"1","label":"yes","noOp":false}],"measure":{"kind":"token-value","metric":"time-weighted conditional token price over the window","thresholdPct":0},"selectedOptionIds":["0"]},"purpose":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json","title":"TEST TWAP","text":["No","yes"],"url":null},"knowledge":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/lane-findings.json","observedAt":"2026-10-13T04:47:50.441Z","rosterVersion":"3.0.0","readings":[{"name":"evidence","label":"Evidence","status":"withheld"},{"name":"attack","label":"Attack","status":"withheld"},{"name":"market","label":"Market","status":"filed"},{"name":"playbooks","label":"Playbooks","status":"standing"},{"name":"learning","label":"Learning","status":"standing"},{"name":"claims","label":"Claims","status":"standing"}]},"analysis":{"schemaVersion":1,"subject":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"3s86EuaawQBe8ZbsbxK2hP82M1m3tyoAz9hwov3UKSQL"},"evaluatedAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","cutoffAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","evidence":[{"id":"2522323447ddfb259da907e1afe1fb13fffa5b648ebffb977fb2034f4c41ec75","source":"retained-input:2522323447ddfb259da907e1afe1fb13fffa5b648ebffb977fb2034f4c41ec75","revision":"2522323447ddfb259da907e1afe1fb13fffa5b648ebffb977fb2034f4c41ec75","digest":"2522323447ddfb259da907e1afe1fb13fffa5b648ebffb977fb2034f4c41ec75","observedAt":null,"knownAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z"}],"results":[{"id":"disclosures","instrument":{"id":"disclosures","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["2522323447ddfb259da907e1afe1fb13fffa5b648ebffb977fb2034f4c41ec75"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution."],"payload":{"kind":"disclosures","fields":[{"id":"decision-account","label":"Decision account","state":"present","note":"Confirmed onchain at the address shown."},{"id":"options","label":"Options","state":"present","note":"2 options: No; 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It is absent, never zero."},"impact":{"status":"recorded","forecast":{"selectedOptionId":"0","referenceOptionId":"1","reference":"runner-up","selectedPrice":3702737,"referencePrice":3702737,"forecastPct":0,"basis":"Final option TWAPs from each option's pool oracle, in raw observation units.","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json"},"realised":[{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"1d","reason":"This token's only pairs sit under the dust floor ($1,000 of liquidity and under $100 a day traded), so no price is recorded. It is absent, never zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"7d","reason":"This token's only pairs sit under the dust floor ($1,000 of liquidity and under $100 a day traded), so no price is recorded. It is absent, never zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","reason":"This token's only pairs sit under the dust floor ($1,000 of liquidity and under $100 a day traded), so no price is recorded. It is absent, never zero."}]},"capital":{"status":"withheld","reason":"The chain has not been read for what this decision moved yet."},"agents":[],"authorities":[{"role":"moderator","account":"FX9Wd7iFEez1ZuyLJG5WUVxFpk88AUj9PUqAVebd4Bho","name":"SURFTEST"}]},{"id":"combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-UCpMPaNrC9c9RZYk5c5L2z1zZpFxeERe1orRuSqZCJZ","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-UCpMPaNrC9c9RZYk5c5L2z1zZpFxeERe1orRuSqZCJZ/","engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"UCpMPaNrC9c9RZYk5c5L2z1zZpFxeERe1orRuSqZCJZ","decider":{"account":"FDBjg9VipcgkBKUeEJBCbWonXFWqpaUp5sdfQss8yEgB","name":"IdeaDAO"},"title":"Select the builder of the idea","openedAt":"2026-02-11T16:06:30.000Z","closesAt":"2026-02-12T16:06:30.000Z","wallets":1,"counted":false,"form":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","options":[{"id":"0","label":"No","noOp":true},{"id":"1","label":"Ewan","noOp":false},{"id":"2","label":"Mathis","noOp":false},{"id":"3","label":"Emre","noOp":false}],"measure":{"kind":"token-value","metric":"time-weighted conditional token price over the window","thresholdPct":0},"selectedOptionIds":["1"]},"purpose":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json","title":"Select the builder of the idea","text":["No","Ewan","Mathis","Emre"],"url":null},"knowledge":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/lane-findings.json","observedAt":"2026-10-13T04:47:50.441Z","rosterVersion":"3.0.0","readings":[{"name":"evidence","label":"Evidence","status":"filed"},{"name":"attack","label":"Attack","status":"filed"},{"name":"market","label":"Market","status":"filed"},{"name":"playbooks","label":"Playbooks","status":"standing"},{"name":"learning","label":"Learning","status":"standing"},{"name":"claims","label":"Claims","status":"standing"}]},"analysis":{"schemaVersion":1,"subject":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"UCpMPaNrC9c9RZYk5c5L2z1zZpFxeERe1orRuSqZCJZ"},"evaluatedAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","cutoffAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","evidence":[{"id":"6bfadeb0b64092b400a1935c1f528997ee832c9316841851ae2fd23b12064eb4","source":"retained-input:6bfadeb0b64092b400a1935c1f528997ee832c9316841851ae2fd23b12064eb4","revision":"6bfadeb0b64092b400a1935c1f528997ee832c9316841851ae2fd23b12064eb4","digest":"6bfadeb0b64092b400a1935c1f528997ee832c9316841851ae2fd23b12064eb4","observedAt":null,"knownAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z"}],"results":[{"id":"disclosures","instrument":{"id":"disclosures","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["6bfadeb0b64092b400a1935c1f528997ee832c9316841851ae2fd23b12064eb4"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution."],"payload":{"kind":"disclosures","fields":[{"id":"decision-account","label":"Decision account","state":"present","note":"Confirmed onchain at the address shown."},{"id":"options","label":"Options","state":"present","note":"4 options: No; Ewan; Mathis; Emre."},{"id":"selection-rule","label":"Selection rule","state":"present","note":"The best challenger must beat the default by 0%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close times are on the record."},{"id":"question","label":"Question","state":"present","note":"The decision's question is on the record."},{"id":"moderator","label":"Moderator","state":"present","note":"Moderated by IdeaDAO."}]}},{"id":"participation","instrument":{"id":"participation","version":"2.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["6bfadeb0b64092b400a1935c1f528997ee832c9316841851ae2fd23b12064eb4"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants.","Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":1,"wallets":1,"sizedVolumeUsd":0.01,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":100,"topThreeWalletSharePct":100,"multiPoolWallets":0}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["6bfadeb0b64092b400a1935c1f528997ee832c9316841851ae2fd23b12064eb4"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"payload":{"kind":"market","prices":{"0":999999,"1":1008308,"2":999999,"3":999999},"defaultOption":"0","thresholdPct":0,"leader":"1","leaderMarginPct":0.8309008309008308,"selectedByRule":"1","recordedSelection":"1","provisional":false}},{"id":"selection-rule","instrument":{"id":"selection-rule","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["6bfadeb0b64092b400a1935c1f528997ee832c9316841851ae2fd23b12064eb4"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. 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It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},"impact":{"status":"recorded","forecast":{"selectedOptionId":"1","referenceOptionId":"0","reference":"default","selectedPrice":1008308,"referencePrice":999999,"forecastPct":0.830900830900827,"basis":"Final option TWAPs from each option's pool oracle, in raw observation units.","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json"},"realised":[{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"1d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"7d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. 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star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7; None."},{"id":"selection-rule","label":"Selection rule","state":"present","note":"The best challenger must beat the default by 0%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close times are on the record."},{"id":"question","label":"Question","state":"present","note":"The decision's question is on the record."},{"id":"moderator","label":"Moderator","state":"present","note":"Moderated by star-test-dao."}]}},{"id":"participation","instrument":{"id":"participation","version":"2.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["8d8f36caf8c7480b1b06da4405700b0a4e533c11d5b25c815a536bf6bdd53dbc"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants.","Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":2,"wallets":1,"sizedVolumeUsd":1.12719,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":100,"topThreeWalletSharePct":100,"multiPoolWallets":0}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["8d8f36caf8c7480b1b06da4405700b0a4e533c11d5b25c815a536bf6bdd53dbc"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"payload":{"kind":"market","prices":{"0":1209,"1":1326,"2":1209},"defaultOption":"0","thresholdPct":0,"leader":"1","leaderMarginPct":9.67741935483871,"selectedByRule":"1","recordedSelection":"1","provisional":false}},{"id":"selection-rule","instrument":{"id":"selection-rule","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["8d8f36caf8c7480b1b06da4405700b0a4e533c11d5b25c815a536bf6bdd53dbc"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. 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It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},"impact":{"status":"recorded","forecast":{"selectedOptionId":"0","referenceOptionId":"1","reference":"runner-up","selectedPrice":1336,"referencePrice":1336,"forecastPct":0,"basis":"Final option TWAPs from each option's pool oracle, in raw observation units.","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json"},"realised":[{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"1d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"7d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."}]},"capital":{"status":"withheld","reason":"The chain has not been read for what this decision moved yet."},"agents":[],"authorities":[{"role":"moderator","account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"}]},{"id":"combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-2xCMbQajjPp3bHQQLFKFBnR9Hhu8LzBfGZNpmEbHiLZk","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-2xCMbQajjPp3bHQQLFKFBnR9Hhu8LzBfGZNpmEbHiLZk/","engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"2xCMbQajjPp3bHQQLFKFBnR9Hhu8LzBfGZNpmEbHiLZk","decider":{"account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"},"title":"Curation market #7: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","openedAt":"2026-03-20T20:50:52.000Z","closesAt":"2026-03-20T21:50:52.000Z","wallets":1,"counted":false,"form":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","options":[{"id":"0","label":"Smoke 1774019853225 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/d5ac2d69-ae80-41c7-9e4c-fefd61708416","noOp":false},{"id":"1","label":"Smoke 1774018698420 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/b5a28049-a215-4d6e-9838-986fd3af9062","noOp":false},{"id":"2","label":"None","noOp":false}],"measure":{"kind":"token-value","metric":"time-weighted conditional token price over the window","thresholdPct":0},"selectedOptionIds":["0"]},"purpose":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json","title":"Curation market #7: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","text":["Smoke 1774019853225 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/d5ac2d69-ae80-41c7-9e4c-fefd61708416","Smoke 1774018698420 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/b5a28049-a215-4d6e-9838-986fd3af9062","None"],"url":null},"knowledge":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/lane-findings.json","observedAt":"2026-10-13T04:47:50.441Z","rosterVersion":"3.0.0","readings":[{"name":"evidence","label":"Evidence","status":"filed"},{"name":"attack","label":"Attack","status":"filed"},{"name":"market","label":"Market","status":"filed"},{"name":"playbooks","label":"Playbooks","status":"standing"},{"name":"learning","label":"Learning","status":"standing"},{"name":"claims","label":"Claims","status":"standing"}]},"analysis":{"schemaVersion":1,"subject":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"2xCMbQajjPp3bHQQLFKFBnR9Hhu8LzBfGZNpmEbHiLZk"},"evaluatedAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","cutoffAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","evidence":[{"id":"004c354d3ea9c1b1c9016d4ebf89b7a0e831a843592420281daa6403a5ff3d79","source":"retained-input:004c354d3ea9c1b1c9016d4ebf89b7a0e831a843592420281daa6403a5ff3d79","revision":"004c354d3ea9c1b1c9016d4ebf89b7a0e831a843592420281daa6403a5ff3d79","digest":"004c354d3ea9c1b1c9016d4ebf89b7a0e831a843592420281daa6403a5ff3d79","observedAt":null,"knownAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z"}],"results":[{"id":"disclosures","instrument":{"id":"disclosures","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["004c354d3ea9c1b1c9016d4ebf89b7a0e831a843592420281daa6403a5ff3d79"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution."],"payload":{"kind":"disclosures","fields":[{"id":"decision-account","label":"Decision account","state":"present","note":"Confirmed onchain at the address shown."},{"id":"options","label":"Options","state":"present","note":"3 options: Smoke 1774019853225 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/d5ac2d69-ae80-41c7-9e4c-fefd61708416; Smoke 1774018698420 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/b5a28049-a215-4d6e-9838-986fd3af9062; None."},{"id":"selection-rule","label":"Selection rule","state":"present","note":"The best challenger must beat the default by 0%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close times are on the record."},{"id":"question","label":"Question","state":"present","note":"The decision's question is on the record."},{"id":"moderator","label":"Moderator","state":"present","note":"Moderated by star-test-dao."}]}},{"id":"participation","instrument":{"id":"participation","version":"2.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["004c354d3ea9c1b1c9016d4ebf89b7a0e831a843592420281daa6403a5ff3d79"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants.","Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":5,"wallets":1,"sizedVolumeUsd":0.001622,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":100,"topThreeWalletSharePct":100,"multiPoolWallets":1}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["004c354d3ea9c1b1c9016d4ebf89b7a0e831a843592420281daa6403a5ff3d79"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"payload":{"kind":"market","prices":{"0":1336,"1":1336,"2":1336},"defaultOption":"0","thresholdPct":0,"leader":"1","leaderMarginPct":0,"selectedByRule":"0","recordedSelection":"0","provisional":false}},{"id":"selection-rule","instrument":{"id":"selection-rule","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["004c354d3ea9c1b1c9016d4ebf89b7a0e831a843592420281daa6403a5ff3d79"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics."],"payload":{"kind":"rule-observations","observations":[{"id":"tie-fails","headline":"A tie keeps the default","detail":"The threshold is zero and the selection rule is strict: a challenger's time-weighted price must strictly beat the default's, so a level print keeps the default."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch","evidenceIds":["004c354d3ea9c1b1c9016d4ebf89b7a0e831a843592420281daa6403a5ff3d79"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"Combinator asks no stake of 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None"},{"id":"CQuSKmM7MnXCMQaMfZCWhpwtirNDziY33z4DJaG5qMEA","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:39:37.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3E5PtHbhwEx7Z3tnFWEKvCwfW3b1RJaiAqp3WgVvsK9F","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:12:32.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"FUNvTLm6ZSU7c2KmmuLGCjb4ZUtGvoE8huD2NifDjenT","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:45:31.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AgRoqjmUfPaTGELq2NJ16fwMQTt1wduNXHaRKfsdv9c8","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:28:11.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"9AaXpWC1wtKr7JLQqXgia9Qc9ZSShvMu2rpg4CbCRZg6","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:13:41.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"4LwbeVd7CqQxtUBdfrxjziyVejdqgVP6nohAhZzpucLr","closedAt":"2026-03-05T22:57:21.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"FGDhQdQqtYqrvXth92uRf7FeaCL11eYrbcweoGEPpgpH","closedAt":"2026-03-05T22:39:42.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | 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or evidence of causal impact."],"revisitWhen":["A correction to the final prices or governing rule."]}]},"execution":{"status":"withheld","reason":"No execution reading is published for this decision yet."},"outcome":{"status":"withheld","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},"impact":{"status":"recorded","forecast":{"selectedOptionId":"0","referenceOptionId":"1","reference":"runner-up","selectedPrice":1336,"referencePrice":1336,"forecastPct":0,"basis":"Final option TWAPs from each option's pool oracle, in raw observation units.","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json"},"realised":[{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"1d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"7d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."}]},"capital":{"status":"withheld","reason":"The chain has not been read for what this decision moved yet."},"agents":[],"authorities":[{"role":"moderator","account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"}]},{"id":"combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-AFSVLfBMoS1okaWQUmGegwCgTMCVvUxhHc57V1Bn1LAg","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-AFSVLfBMoS1okaWQUmGegwCgTMCVvUxhHc57V1Bn1LAg/","engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"AFSVLfBMoS1okaWQUmGegwCgTMCVvUxhHc57V1Bn1LAg","decider":{"account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"},"title":"Curation market #8: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","openedAt":"2026-03-21T23:58:25.000Z","closesAt":"2026-03-22T00:58:25.000Z","wallets":1,"counted":false,"form":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","options":[{"id":"0","label":"Smoke 1774015449412 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/7a02fafd-7b48-4d11-9880-47bfc195fc40","noOp":false},{"id":"1","label":"Smoke 1773874082123 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/9ef5f326-5c34-46ed-9391-6bf6a951f8cf","noOp":false},{"id":"2","label":"None","noOp":false}],"measure":{"kind":"token-value","metric":"time-weighted conditional token price over the window","thresholdPct":0},"selectedOptionIds":["0"]},"purpose":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json","title":"Curation market #8: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","text":["Smoke 1774015449412 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/7a02fafd-7b48-4d11-9880-47bfc195fc40","Smoke 1773874082123 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/9ef5f326-5c34-46ed-9391-6bf6a951f8cf","None"],"url":null},"knowledge":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/lane-findings.json","observedAt":"2026-10-13T04:47:50.441Z","rosterVersion":"3.0.0","readings":[{"name":"evidence","label":"Evidence","status":"filed"},{"name":"attack","label":"Attack","status":"filed"},{"name":"market","label":"Market","status":"filed"},{"name":"playbooks","label":"Playbooks","status":"standing"},{"name":"learning","label":"Learning","status":"standing"},{"name":"claims","label":"Claims","status":"standing"}]},"analysis":{"schemaVersion":1,"subject":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"AFSVLfBMoS1okaWQUmGegwCgTMCVvUxhHc57V1Bn1LAg"},"evaluatedAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","cutoffAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","evidence":[{"id":"9925c2671908b8dbc677f757793796b8cb0b90910f0103b3b57c1ce4a3d95ab2","source":"retained-input:9925c2671908b8dbc677f757793796b8cb0b90910f0103b3b57c1ce4a3d95ab2","revision":"9925c2671908b8dbc677f757793796b8cb0b90910f0103b3b57c1ce4a3d95ab2","digest":"9925c2671908b8dbc677f757793796b8cb0b90910f0103b3b57c1ce4a3d95ab2","observedAt":null,"knownAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z"}],"results":[{"id":"disclosures","instrument":{"id":"disclosures","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["9925c2671908b8dbc677f757793796b8cb0b90910f0103b3b57c1ce4a3d95ab2"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution."],"payload":{"kind":"disclosures","fields":[{"id":"decision-account","label":"Decision account","state":"present","note":"Confirmed onchain at the address shown."},{"id":"options","label":"Options","state":"present","note":"3 options: Smoke 1774015449412 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/7a02fafd-7b48-4d11-9880-47bfc195fc40; Smoke 1773874082123 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/9ef5f326-5c34-46ed-9391-6bf6a951f8cf; None."},{"id":"selection-rule","label":"Selection rule","state":"present","note":"The best challenger must beat the default by 0%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close times are on the record."},{"id":"question","label":"Question","state":"present","note":"The decision's question is on the record."},{"id":"moderator","label":"Moderator","state":"present","note":"Moderated by star-test-dao."}]}},{"id":"participation","instrument":{"id":"participation","version":"2.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["9925c2671908b8dbc677f757793796b8cb0b90910f0103b3b57c1ce4a3d95ab2"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants.","Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":1,"wallets":1,"sizedVolumeUsd":0.006637,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":100,"topThreeWalletSharePct":100,"multiPoolWallets":0}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["9925c2671908b8dbc677f757793796b8cb0b90910f0103b3b57c1ce4a3d95ab2"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"payload":{"kind":"market","prices":{"0":1336,"1":1331,"2":1336},"defaultOption":"0","thresholdPct":0,"leader":"2","leaderMarginPct":0,"selectedByRule":"0","recordedSelection":"0","provisional":false}},{"id":"selection-rule","instrument":{"id":"selection-rule","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["9925c2671908b8dbc677f757793796b8cb0b90910f0103b3b57c1ce4a3d95ab2"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics."],"payload":{"kind":"rule-observations","observations":[{"id":"tie-fails","headline":"A tie keeps the default","detail":"The threshold is zero and the selection rule is strict: a challenger's time-weighted price must strictly beat the default's, so a level print keeps the default."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch","evidenceIds":["9925c2671908b8dbc677f757793796b8cb0b90910f0103b3b57c1ce4a3d95ab2"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"Combinator asks no stake of 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default"},{"id":"81eymzN4eD3Ftqrp5mZNCsb6eWVy5BgS49P6mddP6GfB","closedAt":"2026-03-05T01:59:23.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"CwJmB75voWVpyJe3dCx39C2qFRN4ebswhhZ9N11p486W","closedAt":"2026-03-01T06:01:05.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AcsLSeaq68ZnsHawAdrK9u6ZzfE2DLmH6FQKXBpqBUMV","closedAt":"2026-02-27T04:32:18.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"Ezi1CMzFPSN95sd9QKi9S99DryCwYuMSgE3hneMwZVQf","closedAt":"2026-02-26T22:42:01.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"}]}},{"id":"measured-outcome","instrument":{"id":"measured-outcome","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution 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It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},"impact":{"status":"recorded","forecast":{"selectedOptionId":"0","referenceOptionId":"1","reference":"runner-up","selectedPrice":1336,"referencePrice":1336,"forecastPct":0,"basis":"Final option TWAPs from each option's pool oracle, in raw observation units.","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json"},"realised":[{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"1d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"7d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."}]},"capital":{"status":"withheld","reason":"The chain has not been read for what this decision moved yet."},"agents":[],"authorities":[{"role":"moderator","account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"}]},{"id":"combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-BMKvu43v7jXWK9PYfRHK3igqJNAn8ghSYXnui48Bg1zL","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-BMKvu43v7jXWK9PYfRHK3igqJNAn8ghSYXnui48Bg1zL/","engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"BMKvu43v7jXWK9PYfRHK3igqJNAn8ghSYXnui48Bg1zL","decider":{"account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"},"title":"Curation market #9: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","openedAt":"2026-04-17T06:42:19.000Z","closesAt":"2026-04-17T07:42:19.000Z","wallets":0,"counted":false,"form":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","options":[{"id":"0","label":"darryn ($TEST) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/4ee05667-50db-4b4b-8c14-6a28ae92f006","noOp":false},{"id":"1","label":"final test ($FWEFWEF) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/b9ec0ead-a884-4dd5-97b5-000b179f5c74","noOp":false},{"id":"2","label":"None","noOp":false}],"measure":{"kind":"token-value","metric":"time-weighted conditional token price over the window","thresholdPct":0},"selectedOptionIds":["0"]},"purpose":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json","title":"Curation market #9: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","text":["darryn ($TEST) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/4ee05667-50db-4b4b-8c14-6a28ae92f006","final test ($FWEFWEF) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/b9ec0ead-a884-4dd5-97b5-000b179f5c74","None"],"url":null},"knowledge":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/lane-findings.json","observedAt":"2026-10-13T04:47:50.441Z","rosterVersion":"3.0.0","readings":[{"name":"evidence","label":"Evidence","status":"withheld"},{"name":"attack","label":"Attack","status":"withheld"},{"name":"market","label":"Market","status":"filed"},{"name":"playbooks","label":"Playbooks","status":"standing"},{"name":"learning","label":"Learning","status":"standing"},{"name":"claims","label":"Claims","status":"standing"}]},"analysis":{"schemaVersion":1,"subject":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"BMKvu43v7jXWK9PYfRHK3igqJNAn8ghSYXnui48Bg1zL"},"evaluatedAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","cutoffAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","evidence":[{"id":"a6517025cfd138d27eff3f0dbf8533c570d5d2d072982bce962f73904348e337","source":"retained-input:a6517025cfd138d27eff3f0dbf8533c570d5d2d072982bce962f73904348e337","revision":"a6517025cfd138d27eff3f0dbf8533c570d5d2d072982bce962f73904348e337","digest":"a6517025cfd138d27eff3f0dbf8533c570d5d2d072982bce962f73904348e337","observedAt":null,"knownAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z"}],"results":[{"id":"disclosures","instrument":{"id":"disclosures","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["a6517025cfd138d27eff3f0dbf8533c570d5d2d072982bce962f73904348e337"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution."],"payload":{"kind":"disclosures","fields":[{"id":"decision-account","label":"Decision account","state":"present","note":"Confirmed onchain at the address shown."},{"id":"options","label":"Options","state":"present","note":"3 options: darryn ($TEST) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/4ee05667-50db-4b4b-8c14-6a28ae92f006; final test ($FWEFWEF) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/b9ec0ead-a884-4dd5-97b5-000b179f5c74; None."},{"id":"selection-rule","label":"Selection rule","state":"present","note":"The best challenger must beat the default by 0%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close times are on the record."},{"id":"question","label":"Question","state":"present","note":"The decision's question is on the record."},{"id":"moderator","label":"Moderator","state":"present","note":"Moderated by star-test-dao."}]}},{"id":"participation","instrument":{"id":"participation","version":"2.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["a6517025cfd138d27eff3f0dbf8533c570d5d2d072982bce962f73904348e337"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants.","Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":0,"wallets":0,"sizedVolumeUsd":0,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":null,"topThreeWalletSharePct":null,"multiPoolWallets":0}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["a6517025cfd138d27eff3f0dbf8533c570d5d2d072982bce962f73904348e337"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"payload":{"kind":"market","prices":{"0":1336,"1":1336,"2":1336},"defaultOption":"0","thresholdPct":0,"leader":"1","leaderMarginPct":0,"selectedByRule":"0","recordedSelection":"0","provisional":false}},{"id":"selection-rule","instrument":{"id":"selection-rule","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["a6517025cfd138d27eff3f0dbf8533c570d5d2d072982bce962f73904348e337"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics."],"payload":{"kind":"rule-observations","observations":[{"id":"tie-fails","headline":"A tie keeps the default","detail":"The threshold is zero and the selection rule is strict: a challenger's time-weighted price must strictly beat the default's, so a level print keeps the default."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch","evidenceIds":["a6517025cfd138d27eff3f0dbf8533c570d5d2d072982bce962f73904348e337"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"Combinator asks no stake of 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estimate of decision quality."],"payload":{"kind":"history","cutoffAt":"2026-04-17T06:42:19.000Z","decisions":[{"id":"5jm2Hp3zbsyszC7bidNNLvVfVdNWhp37UvVAibmUsMMo","closedAt":"2026-04-17T05:29:07.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AFSVLfBMoS1okaWQUmGegwCgTMCVvUxhHc57V1Bn1LAg","closedAt":"2026-03-22T00:58:25.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"2xCMbQajjPp3bHQQLFKFBnR9Hhu8LzBfGZNpmEbHiLZk","closedAt":"2026-03-20T21:50:52.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"6LMJoZELX8aVqTq4795fopmTBxJrKK6TDgvi3b2wkxE9","closedAt":"2026-03-20T15:58:01.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3SJJcwzBePBmbJsawxYmK4MLgB5iTP7Ay2jZcZLGHhHa","closedAt":"2026-03-20T14:47:59.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AokSNt9b5KJQmrWTU58ZmFgpQMAMb2YsGykxEH7hK7dA","closedAt":"2026-03-20T12:30:54.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the 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None"},{"id":"CQuSKmM7MnXCMQaMfZCWhpwtirNDziY33z4DJaG5qMEA","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:39:37.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3E5PtHbhwEx7Z3tnFWEKvCwfW3b1RJaiAqp3WgVvsK9F","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:12:32.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"FUNvTLm6ZSU7c2KmmuLGCjb4ZUtGvoE8huD2NifDjenT","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:45:31.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AgRoqjmUfPaTGELq2NJ16fwMQTt1wduNXHaRKfsdv9c8","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:28:11.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"9AaXpWC1wtKr7JLQqXgia9Qc9ZSShvMu2rpg4CbCRZg6","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:13:41.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"4LwbeVd7CqQxtUBdfrxjziyVejdqgVP6nohAhZzpucLr","closedAt":"2026-03-05T22:57:21.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"FGDhQdQqtYqrvXth92uRf7FeaCL11eYrbcweoGEPpgpH","closedAt":"2026-03-05T22:39:42.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"BoqbfZFeEwAzkcWaAhFWADG15YPv2D4EBEWoaGKAemEh","closedAt":"2026-03-05T22:15:57.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"ARCUCntRyCN1ikYpqhSDjXg4MNHE5LdL5HdojpEbJ9xC","closedAt":"2026-03-05T04:49:49.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"8bGo6aXBhL5k4DAmBotgjGJ1VrorFpm8vqdhixVrypDE","closedAt":"2026-03-05T03:57:59.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"2auJYi8S2k13EnmWDU5ZThj6xnKZGAq7ez2iLqBtUFiV","closedAt":"2026-03-05T02:09:24.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"81eymzN4eD3Ftqrp5mZNCsb6eWVy5BgS49P6mddP6GfB","closedAt":"2026-03-05T01:59:23.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"CwJmB75voWVpyJe3dCx39C2qFRN4ebswhhZ9N11p486W","closedAt":"2026-03-01T06:01:05.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AcsLSeaq68ZnsHawAdrK9u6ZzfE2DLmH6FQKXBpqBUMV","closedAt":"2026-02-27T04:32:18.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"Ezi1CMzFPSN95sd9QKi9S99DryCwYuMSgE3hneMwZVQf","closedAt":"2026-02-26T22:42:01.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"}]}},{"id":"measured-outcome","instrument":{"id":"measured-outcome","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.","evidenceIds":["a6517025cfd138d27eff3f0dbf8533c570d5d2d072982bce962f73904348e337"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null}],"interpretations":[{"id":"interpretation:market-selection","statement":"The recorded prices imply 0: the leading challenger's lead over the default is 0.00%, against a 0.00% threshold.","basis":"derivation","resultIds":["market-selection"],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"revisitWhen":["A correction to the final prices or governing rule."]}]},"execution":{"status":"withheld","reason":"No execution reading is published for this decision yet."},"outcome":{"status":"withheld","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},"impact":{"status":"recorded","forecast":{"selectedOptionId":"0","referenceOptionId":"1","reference":"runner-up","selectedPrice":1336,"referencePrice":1336,"forecastPct":0,"basis":"Final option TWAPs from each option's pool oracle, in raw observation units.","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json"},"realised":[{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"1d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"7d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."}]},"capital":{"status":"withheld","reason":"The chain has not been read for what this decision moved yet."},"agents":[],"authorities":[{"role":"moderator","account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"}]},{"id":"combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-ADMNYiZ7Qfn2B1CyWEGT3QnbNqicQbXSbXLSGqLEVkyf","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-ADMNYiZ7Qfn2B1CyWEGT3QnbNqicQbXSbXLSGqLEVkyf/","engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"ADMNYiZ7Qfn2B1CyWEGT3QnbNqicQbXSbXLSGqLEVkyf","decider":{"account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"},"title":"Curation market #11: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","openedAt":"2026-04-20T14:39:58.000Z","closesAt":"2026-04-20T15:39:58.000Z","wallets":1,"counted":false,"form":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","options":[{"id":"0","label":"Smoke 1774018532909 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/89704630-db8a-471e-8a3e-f9bc8634e454","noOp":false},{"id":"1","label":"Smoke 1774018339789 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/ba9dc1e2-6b7f-428e-bff3-c284f874d4c9","noOp":false},{"id":"2","label":"Smoke 1774018087156 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/832ea346-d87c-4812-a5a2-24112a2fc1b5","noOp":false},{"id":"3","label":"None","noOp":false}],"measure":{"kind":"token-value","metric":"time-weighted conditional token price over the window","thresholdPct":0},"selectedOptionIds":["3"]},"purpose":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json","title":"Curation market #11: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","text":["Smoke 1774018532909 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/89704630-db8a-471e-8a3e-f9bc8634e454","Smoke 1774018339789 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/ba9dc1e2-6b7f-428e-bff3-c284f874d4c9","Smoke 1774018087156 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/832ea346-d87c-4812-a5a2-24112a2fc1b5","None"],"url":null},"knowledge":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/lane-findings.json","observedAt":"2026-10-13T04:47:50.441Z","rosterVersion":"3.0.0","readings":[{"name":"evidence","label":"Evidence","status":"filed"},{"name":"attack","label":"Attack","status":"filed"},{"name":"market","label":"Market","status":"filed"},{"name":"playbooks","label":"Playbooks","status":"standing"},{"name":"learning","label":"Learning","status":"standing"},{"name":"claims","label":"Claims","status":"standing"}]},"analysis":{"schemaVersion":1,"subject":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"ADMNYiZ7Qfn2B1CyWEGT3QnbNqicQbXSbXLSGqLEVkyf"},"evaluatedAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","cutoffAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","evidence":[{"id":"3bc4151b17d94b6ab36bc26850e1bd9ad6570603a891e68cdc9a600ab568b491","source":"retained-input:3bc4151b17d94b6ab36bc26850e1bd9ad6570603a891e68cdc9a600ab568b491","revision":"3bc4151b17d94b6ab36bc26850e1bd9ad6570603a891e68cdc9a600ab568b491","digest":"3bc4151b17d94b6ab36bc26850e1bd9ad6570603a891e68cdc9a600ab568b491","observedAt":null,"knownAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z"}],"results":[{"id":"disclosures","instrument":{"id":"disclosures","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["3bc4151b17d94b6ab36bc26850e1bd9ad6570603a891e68cdc9a600ab568b491"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution."],"payload":{"kind":"disclosures","fields":[{"id":"decision-account","label":"Decision account","state":"present","note":"Confirmed onchain at the address shown."},{"id":"options","label":"Options","state":"present","note":"4 options: Smoke 1774018532909 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/89704630-db8a-471e-8a3e-f9bc8634e454; Smoke 1774018339789 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/ba9dc1e2-6b7f-428e-bff3-c284f874d4c9; Smoke 1774018087156 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/832ea346-d87c-4812-a5a2-24112a2fc1b5; None."},{"id":"selection-rule","label":"Selection rule","state":"present","note":"The best challenger must beat the default by 0%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close times are on the record."},{"id":"question","label":"Question","state":"present","note":"The decision's question is on the record."},{"id":"moderator","label":"Moderator","state":"present","note":"Moderated by star-test-dao."}]}},{"id":"participation","instrument":{"id":"participation","version":"2.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["3bc4151b17d94b6ab36bc26850e1bd9ad6570603a891e68cdc9a600ab568b491"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants.","Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":10,"wallets":1,"sizedVolumeUsd":6.795603000000001,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":100,"topThreeWalletSharePct":100,"multiPoolWallets":1}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["3bc4151b17d94b6ab36bc26850e1bd9ad6570603a891e68cdc9a600ab568b491"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"payload":{"kind":"market","prices":{"0":1058,"1":999,"2":1054,"3":1096},"defaultOption":"0","thresholdPct":0,"leader":"3","leaderMarginPct":3.5916824196597354,"selectedByRule":"3","recordedSelection":"3","provisional":false}},{"id":"selection-rule","instrument":{"id":"selection-rule","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["3bc4151b17d94b6ab36bc26850e1bd9ad6570603a891e68cdc9a600ab568b491"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics."],"payload":{"kind":"rule-observations","observations":[{"id":"tie-fails","headline":"A tie keeps the default","detail":"The threshold is zero and the selection rule is strict: a challenger's time-weighted price must strictly beat the default's, so a level print keeps the default."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch","evidenceIds":["3bc4151b17d94b6ab36bc26850e1bd9ad6570603a891e68cdc9a600ab568b491"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"Combinator asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble","evidenceIds":["3bc4151b17d94b6ab36bc26850e1bd9ad6570603a891e68cdc9a600ab568b491"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"late-window-outcome-steering","instrument":{"id":"late-window-outcome-steering","version":"3.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"this market selects among 4 options, and the late-window playbook reads one challenger's edge over the 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evidence"},{"id":"near-neutral-net","matched":false,"evidence":"no wallet ended near-neutral after high turnover net of arbitrage"},{"id":"arb-frequency-band","matched":false,"evidence":"no wallet traded inside the frequency band net of arbitrage pairs"},{"id":"stripped-tilt-shift","matched":false,"evidence":"tilt -0.23 → -0.23 (shift 0.00); 0 wallets showing wash evidence"}]}},{"id":"coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly","instrument":{"id":"coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly","version":"3.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"Combinator asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or 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default"},{"id":"AFSVLfBMoS1okaWQUmGegwCgTMCVvUxhHc57V1Bn1LAg","closedAt":"2026-03-22T00:58:25.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"2xCMbQajjPp3bHQQLFKFBnR9Hhu8LzBfGZNpmEbHiLZk","closedAt":"2026-03-20T21:50:52.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"6LMJoZELX8aVqTq4795fopmTBxJrKK6TDgvi3b2wkxE9","closedAt":"2026-03-20T15:58:01.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3SJJcwzBePBmbJsawxYmK4MLgB5iTP7Ay2jZcZLGHhHa","closedAt":"2026-03-20T14:47:59.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AokSNt9b5KJQmrWTU58ZmFgpQMAMb2YsGykxEH7hK7dA","closedAt":"2026-03-20T12:30:54.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"B91t5sa8bELGvCJXHqKoywkKdEaQ136iwMJ8LoWeMnVB","closedAt":"2026-03-19T14:31:26.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"HGVKyYNEoYKZimUqxvYnzyaPWSWah8XLb6PR5KQig79y","closedAt":"2026-03-19T12:05:15.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"CGBUwTdgGZYh4xExv1xw7JQCstBf2S8WRBzWXRkDy8yX","closedAt":"2026-03-12T00:27:37.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"9w18ZZEQtNSS74LHLCo1VBT77ekuSHhamwXNTMhte98G","closedAt":"2026-03-12T00:13:01.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected darryn"},{"id":"97XNK9U2wuByMANupATR4mSivtB3ZzYhpDXVzWB4yssR","closedAt":"2026-03-09T00:20:52.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"6gzjwFmxhznY5mYCBM1YadP8BN6BGZ2VNfHGXoEJgaNd","closedAt":"2026-03-07T01:22:20.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"J9F61XfRJX1Z2DxdcS711fJGaBZRKRryuuVFxmLHhKQb","closedAt":"2026-03-06T02:19:19.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"8by7Pm9Gw9n3aXDrHomZ2YZ9UeZo6FvWzQn5iHGYuzKQ","closedAt":"2026-03-06T02:07:04.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"GxwRhQdzL3C2e3bwfwfMeNDPDHzHLovDZaZ41aiPqrPF","closedAt":"2026-03-06T01:54:00.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3hqJQJU3AgWAaPyjyMm28RrjwhU5ERk7MzHW2KKdsmh6","closedAt":"2026-03-06T01:34:17.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"4usCaNvt7qhwbXzLBshqUVTGxhvCm6zpmh4C6c3CBhyJ","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:53:44.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected None"},{"id":"CQuSKmM7MnXCMQaMfZCWhpwtirNDziY33z4DJaG5qMEA","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:39:37.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3E5PtHbhwEx7Z3tnFWEKvCwfW3b1RJaiAqp3WgVvsK9F","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:12:32.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"FUNvTLm6ZSU7c2KmmuLGCjb4ZUtGvoE8huD2NifDjenT","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:45:31.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AgRoqjmUfPaTGELq2NJ16fwMQTt1wduNXHaRKfsdv9c8","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:28:11.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"9AaXpWC1wtKr7JLQqXgia9Qc9ZSShvMu2rpg4CbCRZg6","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:13:41.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"4LwbeVd7CqQxtUBdfrxjziyVejdqgVP6nohAhZzpucLr","closedAt":"2026-03-05T22:57:21.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"FGDhQdQqtYqrvXth92uRf7FeaCL11eYrbcweoGEPpgpH","closedAt":"2026-03-05T22:39:42.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"BoqbfZFeEwAzkcWaAhFWADG15YPv2D4EBEWoaGKAemEh","closedAt":"2026-03-05T22:15:57.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"ARCUCntRyCN1ikYpqhSDjXg4MNHE5LdL5HdojpEbJ9xC","closedAt":"2026-03-05T04:49:49.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"8bGo6aXBhL5k4DAmBotgjGJ1VrorFpm8vqdhixVrypDE","closedAt":"2026-03-05T03:57:59.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"2auJYi8S2k13EnmWDU5ZThj6xnKZGAq7ez2iLqBtUFiV","closedAt":"2026-03-05T02:09:24.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"81eymzN4eD3Ftqrp5mZNCsb6eWVy5BgS49P6mddP6GfB","closedAt":"2026-03-05T01:59:23.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"CwJmB75voWVpyJe3dCx39C2qFRN4ebswhhZ9N11p486W","closedAt":"2026-03-01T06:01:05.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AcsLSeaq68ZnsHawAdrK9u6ZzfE2DLmH6FQKXBpqBUMV","closedAt":"2026-02-27T04:32:18.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"Ezi1CMzFPSN95sd9QKi9S99DryCwYuMSgE3hneMwZVQf","closedAt":"2026-02-26T22:42:01.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the 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DexScreener lists no pair for it. 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Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2; None."},{"id":"selection-rule","label":"Selection rule","state":"present","note":"The best challenger must beat the default by 0%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close times are on the record."},{"id":"question","label":"Question","state":"present","note":"The decision's question is on the record."},{"id":"moderator","label":"Moderator","state":"present","note":"Moderated by star-test-dao."}]}},{"id":"participation","instrument":{"id":"participation","version":"2.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["53f26614fc5af712b5828f8eb867e7602c12042cfc3bab75a47f09aba5bdd6f2"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants.","Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":1,"wallets":1,"sizedVolumeUsd":0.000141,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":100,"topThreeWalletSharePct":100,"multiPoolWallets":0}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["53f26614fc5af712b5828f8eb867e7602c12042cfc3bab75a47f09aba5bdd6f2"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"payload":{"kind":"market","prices":{"0":1428,"1":1428,"2":1428},"defaultOption":"0","thresholdPct":0,"leader":"1","leaderMarginPct":0,"selectedByRule":"0","recordedSelection":"0","provisional":false}},{"id":"selection-rule","instrument":{"id":"selection-rule","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["53f26614fc5af712b5828f8eb867e7602c12042cfc3bab75a47f09aba5bdd6f2"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. 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It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},"impact":{"status":"recorded","forecast":{"selectedOptionId":"0","referenceOptionId":"1","reference":"runner-up","selectedPrice":1428,"referencePrice":1428,"forecastPct":0,"basis":"Final option TWAPs from each option's pool oracle, in raw observation units.","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json"},"realised":[{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"1d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"7d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."}]},"capital":{"status":"withheld","reason":"The chain has not been read for what this decision moved yet."},"agents":[],"authorities":[{"role":"moderator","account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"}]},{"id":"combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-ABNqZSdgqfUvnhbEgeN8j1ueqm3eacXSyXtHHmCTJQqk","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-ABNqZSdgqfUvnhbEgeN8j1ueqm3eacXSyXtHHmCTJQqk/","engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"ABNqZSdgqfUvnhbEgeN8j1ueqm3eacXSyXtHHmCTJQqk","decider":{"account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"},"title":"Curation market #16: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","openedAt":"2026-04-27T15:47:26.000Z","closesAt":"2026-04-27T15:57:26.000Z","wallets":1,"counted":false,"form":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","options":[{"id":"0","label":"Smoke 1774018698420 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/b5a28049-a215-4d6e-9838-986fd3af9062","noOp":false},{"id":"1","label":"Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2","noOp":false},{"id":"2","label":"Smoke 1773873634809 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/153b86e7-2726-4a75-b171-4d24e0084ee8","noOp":false},{"id":"3","label":"None","noOp":false}],"measure":{"kind":"token-value","metric":"time-weighted conditional token price over the window","thresholdPct":0},"selectedOptionIds":["0"]},"purpose":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json","title":"Curation market #16: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","text":["Smoke 1774018698420 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/b5a28049-a215-4d6e-9838-986fd3af9062","Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2","Smoke 1773873634809 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/153b86e7-2726-4a75-b171-4d24e0084ee8","None"],"url":null},"knowledge":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/lane-findings.json","observedAt":"2026-10-13T04:47:50.441Z","rosterVersion":"3.0.0","readings":[{"name":"evidence","label":"Evidence","status":"filed"},{"name":"attack","label":"Attack","status":"filed"},{"name":"market","label":"Market","status":"filed"},{"name":"playbooks","label":"Playbooks","status":"standing"},{"name":"learning","label":"Learning","status":"standing"},{"name":"claims","label":"Claims","status":"standing"}]},"analysis":{"schemaVersion":1,"subject":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"ABNqZSdgqfUvnhbEgeN8j1ueqm3eacXSyXtHHmCTJQqk"},"evaluatedAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","cutoffAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","evidence":[{"id":"fecf562f04cebc2c251e2cb6731f66cbe49e982e5294db0c0db5d6c0064b8b61","source":"retained-input:fecf562f04cebc2c251e2cb6731f66cbe49e982e5294db0c0db5d6c0064b8b61","revision":"fecf562f04cebc2c251e2cb6731f66cbe49e982e5294db0c0db5d6c0064b8b61","digest":"fecf562f04cebc2c251e2cb6731f66cbe49e982e5294db0c0db5d6c0064b8b61","observedAt":null,"knownAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z"}],"results":[{"id":"disclosures","instrument":{"id":"disclosures","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["fecf562f04cebc2c251e2cb6731f66cbe49e982e5294db0c0db5d6c0064b8b61"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution."],"payload":{"kind":"disclosures","fields":[{"id":"decision-account","label":"Decision account","state":"present","note":"Confirmed onchain at the address shown."},{"id":"options","label":"Options","state":"present","note":"4 options: Smoke 1774018698420 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/b5a28049-a215-4d6e-9838-986fd3af9062; Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2; Smoke 1773873634809 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/153b86e7-2726-4a75-b171-4d24e0084ee8; None."},{"id":"selection-rule","label":"Selection rule","state":"present","note":"The best challenger must beat the default by 0%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close times are on the record."},{"id":"question","label":"Question","state":"present","note":"The decision's question is on the record."},{"id":"moderator","label":"Moderator","state":"present","note":"Moderated by star-test-dao."}]}},{"id":"participation","instrument":{"id":"participation","version":"2.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["fecf562f04cebc2c251e2cb6731f66cbe49e982e5294db0c0db5d6c0064b8b61"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants.","Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":3,"wallets":1,"sizedVolumeUsd":0.5369929999999999,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":100,"topThreeWalletSharePct":100,"multiPoolWallets":1}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["fecf562f04cebc2c251e2cb6731f66cbe49e982e5294db0c0db5d6c0064b8b61"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"payload":{"kind":"market","prices":{"0":1412,"1":1345,"2":1405,"3":1345},"defaultOption":"0","thresholdPct":0,"leader":"2","leaderMarginPct":-0.49575070821529743,"selectedByRule":"0","recordedSelection":"0","provisional":false}},{"id":"selection-rule","instrument":{"id":"selection-rule","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["fecf562f04cebc2c251e2cb6731f66cbe49e982e5294db0c0db5d6c0064b8b61"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics."],"payload":{"kind":"rule-observations","observations":[{"id":"tie-fails","headline":"A tie keeps the default","detail":"The threshold is zero and the selection rule is strict: a challenger's time-weighted price must strictly beat the default's, so a level print keeps the default."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch","evidenceIds":["fecf562f04cebc2c251e2cb6731f66cbe49e982e5294db0c0db5d6c0064b8b61"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"Combinator asks no stake of 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default"},{"id":"3SJJcwzBePBmbJsawxYmK4MLgB5iTP7Ay2jZcZLGHhHa","closedAt":"2026-03-20T14:47:59.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AokSNt9b5KJQmrWTU58ZmFgpQMAMb2YsGykxEH7hK7dA","closedAt":"2026-03-20T12:30:54.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"B91t5sa8bELGvCJXHqKoywkKdEaQ136iwMJ8LoWeMnVB","closedAt":"2026-03-19T14:31:26.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"HGVKyYNEoYKZimUqxvYnzyaPWSWah8XLb6PR5KQig79y","closedAt":"2026-03-19T12:05:15.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"CGBUwTdgGZYh4xExv1xw7JQCstBf2S8WRBzWXRkDy8yX","closedAt":"2026-03-12T00:27:37.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"9w18ZZEQtNSS74LHLCo1VBT77ekuSHhamwXNTMhte98G","closedAt":"2026-03-12T00:13:01.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected darryn"},{"id":"97XNK9U2wuByMANupATR4mSivtB3ZzYhpDXVzWB4yssR","closedAt":"2026-03-09T00:20:52.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"6gzjwFmxhznY5mYCBM1YadP8BN6BGZ2VNfHGXoEJgaNd","closedAt":"2026-03-07T01:22:20.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"J9F61XfRJX1Z2DxdcS711fJGaBZRKRryuuVFxmLHhKQb","closedAt":"2026-03-06T02:19:19.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"8by7Pm9Gw9n3aXDrHomZ2YZ9UeZo6FvWzQn5iHGYuzKQ","closedAt":"2026-03-06T02:07:04.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"GxwRhQdzL3C2e3bwfwfMeNDPDHzHLovDZaZ41aiPqrPF","closedAt":"2026-03-06T01:54:00.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3hqJQJU3AgWAaPyjyMm28RrjwhU5ERk7MzHW2KKdsmh6","closedAt":"2026-03-06T01:34:17.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | 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default"},{"id":"81eymzN4eD3Ftqrp5mZNCsb6eWVy5BgS49P6mddP6GfB","closedAt":"2026-03-05T01:59:23.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"CwJmB75voWVpyJe3dCx39C2qFRN4ebswhhZ9N11p486W","closedAt":"2026-03-01T06:01:05.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AcsLSeaq68ZnsHawAdrK9u6ZzfE2DLmH6FQKXBpqBUMV","closedAt":"2026-02-27T04:32:18.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"Ezi1CMzFPSN95sd9QKi9S99DryCwYuMSgE3hneMwZVQf","closedAt":"2026-02-26T22:42:01.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"}]}},{"id":"measured-outcome","instrument":{"id":"measured-outcome","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution 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It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},"impact":{"status":"recorded","forecast":{"selectedOptionId":"0","referenceOptionId":"2","reference":"runner-up","selectedPrice":1412,"referencePrice":1405,"forecastPct":0.4982206405693912,"basis":"Final option TWAPs from each option's pool oracle, in raw observation units.","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json"},"realised":[{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"1d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"7d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. 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Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2; Smoke 1773873634809 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/153b86e7-2726-4a75-b171-4d24e0084ee8; None."},{"id":"selection-rule","label":"Selection rule","state":"present","note":"The best challenger must beat the default by 0%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close times are on the record."},{"id":"question","label":"Question","state":"present","note":"The decision's question is on the record."},{"id":"moderator","label":"Moderator","state":"present","note":"Moderated by star-test-dao."}]}},{"id":"participation","instrument":{"id":"participation","version":"2.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["d1accee51ccf8bb1b3fe2c60670ebd70b25d5b8d51d6e7b2c854f46b665a770b"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants.","Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":0,"wallets":0,"sizedVolumeUsd":0,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":null,"topThreeWalletSharePct":null,"multiPoolWallets":0}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["d1accee51ccf8bb1b3fe2c60670ebd70b25d5b8d51d6e7b2c854f46b665a770b"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"payload":{"kind":"market","prices":{"0":1414,"1":1414,"2":1414,"3":1414},"defaultOption":"0","thresholdPct":0,"leader":"1","leaderMarginPct":0,"selectedByRule":"0","recordedSelection":"0","provisional":false}},{"id":"selection-rule","instrument":{"id":"selection-rule","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["d1accee51ccf8bb1b3fe2c60670ebd70b25d5b8d51d6e7b2c854f46b665a770b"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics."],"payload":{"kind":"rule-observations","observations":[{"id":"tie-fails","headline":"A tie keeps the default","detail":"The threshold is zero and the selection rule is strict: a challenger's time-weighted price must strictly beat the default's, so a level print keeps the default."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch","evidenceIds":["d1accee51ccf8bb1b3fe2c60670ebd70b25d5b8d51d6e7b2c854f46b665a770b"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"Combinator asks no stake of 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estimate of decision quality."],"payload":{"kind":"history","cutoffAt":"2026-04-27T17:01:40.000Z","decisions":[{"id":"ABNqZSdgqfUvnhbEgeN8j1ueqm3eacXSyXtHHmCTJQqk","closedAt":"2026-04-27T15:57:26.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"Ajf4B7QcDgn4fEcMeisSkcXACYDtb4f8dvgMf8n9iSj","closedAt":"2026-04-27T15:38:07.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"5Nzz9ZLhxiyFVC9PcQZWTcQdBVWr63ZBhmkzczfKBgfW","closedAt":"2026-04-21T14:24:07.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"6wc1d16cYbDQCMkjk4Ro5HKRBV4NAvGTQ1sTEcPu48YW","closedAt":"2026-04-20T23:46:51.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"ADMNYiZ7Qfn2B1CyWEGT3QnbNqicQbXSbXLSGqLEVkyf","closedAt":"2026-04-20T15:39:58.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected None"},{"id":"BMKvu43v7jXWK9PYfRHK3igqJNAn8ghSYXnui48Bg1zL","closedAt":"2026-04-17T07:42:19.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the 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rule."]}]},"execution":{"status":"withheld","reason":"No execution reading is published for this decision yet."},"outcome":{"status":"withheld","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},"impact":{"status":"recorded","forecast":{"selectedOptionId":"0","referenceOptionId":"1","reference":"runner-up","selectedPrice":1414,"referencePrice":1414,"forecastPct":0,"basis":"Final option TWAPs from each option's pool oracle, in raw observation units.","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json"},"realised":[{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"1d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"7d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."}]},"capital":{"status":"withheld","reason":"The chain has not been read for what this decision moved yet."},"agents":[],"authorities":[{"role":"moderator","account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"}]},{"id":"combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-7JwoX6m4w5UFW3mT3EECfTZuxMvYWWezmWzmkzF4sjeV","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-7JwoX6m4w5UFW3mT3EECfTZuxMvYWWezmWzmkzF4sjeV/","engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"7JwoX6m4w5UFW3mT3EECfTZuxMvYWWezmWzmkzF4sjeV","decider":{"account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"},"title":"Curation market #17: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","openedAt":"2026-04-27T17:20:16.000Z","closesAt":"2026-04-27T17:30:16.000Z","wallets":1,"counted":false,"form":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","options":[{"id":"0","label":"Smoke 1774018698420 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/b5a28049-a215-4d6e-9838-986fd3af9062","noOp":false},{"id":"1","label":"Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2","noOp":false},{"id":"2","label":"Smoke 1773873634809 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/153b86e7-2726-4a75-b171-4d24e0084ee8","noOp":false},{"id":"3","label":"None","noOp":false}],"measure":{"kind":"token-value","metric":"time-weighted conditional token price over the window","thresholdPct":0},"selectedOptionIds":["0"]},"purpose":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json","title":"Curation market #17: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","text":["Smoke 1774018698420 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/b5a28049-a215-4d6e-9838-986fd3af9062","Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2","Smoke 1773873634809 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/153b86e7-2726-4a75-b171-4d24e0084ee8","None"],"url":null},"knowledge":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/lane-findings.json","observedAt":"2026-10-13T04:47:50.441Z","rosterVersion":"3.0.0","readings":[{"name":"evidence","label":"Evidence","status":"filed"},{"name":"attack","label":"Attack","status":"filed"},{"name":"market","label":"Market","status":"filed"},{"name":"playbooks","label":"Playbooks","status":"standing"},{"name":"learning","label":"Learning","status":"standing"},{"name":"claims","label":"Claims","status":"standing"}]},"analysis":{"schemaVersion":1,"subject":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"7JwoX6m4w5UFW3mT3EECfTZuxMvYWWezmWzmkzF4sjeV"},"evaluatedAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","cutoffAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","evidence":[{"id":"83874c728e1483a5e740f4f22e63f1615ec10e1a3c74c99e981074e17d5beec0","source":"retained-input:83874c728e1483a5e740f4f22e63f1615ec10e1a3c74c99e981074e17d5beec0","revision":"83874c728e1483a5e740f4f22e63f1615ec10e1a3c74c99e981074e17d5beec0","digest":"83874c728e1483a5e740f4f22e63f1615ec10e1a3c74c99e981074e17d5beec0","observedAt":null,"knownAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z"}],"results":[{"id":"disclosures","instrument":{"id":"disclosures","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["83874c728e1483a5e740f4f22e63f1615ec10e1a3c74c99e981074e17d5beec0"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution."],"payload":{"kind":"disclosures","fields":[{"id":"decision-account","label":"Decision account","state":"present","note":"Confirmed onchain at the address shown."},{"id":"options","label":"Options","state":"present","note":"4 options: Smoke 1774018698420 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/b5a28049-a215-4d6e-9838-986fd3af9062; Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2; Smoke 1773873634809 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/153b86e7-2726-4a75-b171-4d24e0084ee8; None."},{"id":"selection-rule","label":"Selection rule","state":"present","note":"The best challenger must beat the default by 0%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close times are on the record."},{"id":"question","label":"Question","state":"present","note":"The decision's question is on the record."},{"id":"moderator","label":"Moderator","state":"present","note":"Moderated by star-test-dao."}]}},{"id":"participation","instrument":{"id":"participation","version":"2.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["83874c728e1483a5e740f4f22e63f1615ec10e1a3c74c99e981074e17d5beec0"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants.","Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":1,"wallets":1,"sizedVolumeUsd":1,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":100,"topThreeWalletSharePct":100,"multiPoolWallets":0}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["83874c728e1483a5e740f4f22e63f1615ec10e1a3c74c99e981074e17d5beec0"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"payload":{"kind":"market","prices":{"0":2361,"1":1414,"2":1414,"3":1414},"defaultOption":"0","thresholdPct":0,"leader":"1","leaderMarginPct":-40.11012282930962,"selectedByRule":"0","recordedSelection":"0","provisional":false}},{"id":"selection-rule","instrument":{"id":"selection-rule","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["83874c728e1483a5e740f4f22e63f1615ec10e1a3c74c99e981074e17d5beec0"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics."],"payload":{"kind":"rule-observations","observations":[{"id":"tie-fails","headline":"A tie keeps the default","detail":"The threshold is zero and the selection rule is strict: a challenger's time-weighted price must strictly beat the default's, so a level print keeps the default."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch","evidenceIds":["83874c728e1483a5e740f4f22e63f1615ec10e1a3c74c99e981074e17d5beec0"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"Combinator asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble","evidenceIds":["83874c728e1483a5e740f4f22e63f1615ec10e1a3c74c99e981074e17d5beec0"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"late-window-outcome-steering","instrument":{"id":"late-window-outcome-steering","version":"3.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"this market selects among 4 options, and the late-window playbook reads one challenger's edge over the 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evidence"},{"id":"near-neutral-net","matched":false,"evidence":"no wallet ended near-neutral after high turnover net of arbitrage"},{"id":"arb-frequency-band","matched":false,"evidence":"no wallet traded inside the frequency band net of arbitrage pairs"},{"id":"stripped-tilt-shift","matched":false,"evidence":"tilt -1.00 → -1.00 (shift 0.00); 0 wallets showing wash evidence"}]}},{"id":"coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly","instrument":{"id":"coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly","version":"3.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"Combinator asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or 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default"},{"id":"Ajf4B7QcDgn4fEcMeisSkcXACYDtb4f8dvgMf8n9iSj","closedAt":"2026-04-27T15:38:07.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"5Nzz9ZLhxiyFVC9PcQZWTcQdBVWr63ZBhmkzczfKBgfW","closedAt":"2026-04-21T14:24:07.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"6wc1d16cYbDQCMkjk4Ro5HKRBV4NAvGTQ1sTEcPu48YW","closedAt":"2026-04-20T23:46:51.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"ADMNYiZ7Qfn2B1CyWEGT3QnbNqicQbXSbXLSGqLEVkyf","closedAt":"2026-04-20T15:39:58.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected None"},{"id":"BMKvu43v7jXWK9PYfRHK3igqJNAn8ghSYXnui48Bg1zL","closedAt":"2026-04-17T07:42:19.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"5jm2Hp3zbsyszC7bidNNLvVfVdNWhp37UvVAibmUsMMo","closedAt":"2026-04-17T05:29:07.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AFSVLfBMoS1okaWQUmGegwCgTMCVvUxhHc57V1Bn1LAg","closedAt":"2026-03-22T00:58:25.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"2xCMbQajjPp3bHQQLFKFBnR9Hhu8LzBfGZNpmEbHiLZk","closedAt":"2026-03-20T21:50:52.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"6LMJoZELX8aVqTq4795fopmTBxJrKK6TDgvi3b2wkxE9","closedAt":"2026-03-20T15:58:01.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3SJJcwzBePBmbJsawxYmK4MLgB5iTP7Ay2jZcZLGHhHa","closedAt":"2026-03-20T14:47:59.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AokSNt9b5KJQmrWTU58ZmFgpQMAMb2YsGykxEH7hK7dA","closedAt":"2026-03-20T12:30:54.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"B91t5sa8bELGvCJXHqKoywkKdEaQ136iwMJ8LoWeMnVB","closedAt":"2026-03-19T14:31:26.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"HGVKyYNEoYKZimUqxvYnzyaPWSWah8XLb6PR5KQig79y","closedAt":"2026-03-19T12:05:15.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"CGBUwTdgGZYh4xExv1xw7JQCstBf2S8WRBzWXRkDy8yX","closedAt":"2026-03-12T00:27:37.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"9w18ZZEQtNSS74LHLCo1VBT77ekuSHhamwXNTMhte98G","closedAt":"2026-03-12T00:13:01.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected darryn"},{"id":"97XNK9U2wuByMANupATR4mSivtB3ZzYhpDXVzWB4yssR","closedAt":"2026-03-09T00:20:52.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"6gzjwFmxhznY5mYCBM1YadP8BN6BGZ2VNfHGXoEJgaNd","closedAt":"2026-03-07T01:22:20.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"J9F61XfRJX1Z2DxdcS711fJGaBZRKRryuuVFxmLHhKQb","closedAt":"2026-03-06T02:19:19.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"8by7Pm9Gw9n3aXDrHomZ2YZ9UeZo6FvWzQn5iHGYuzKQ","closedAt":"2026-03-06T02:07:04.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"GxwRhQdzL3C2e3bwfwfMeNDPDHzHLovDZaZ41aiPqrPF","closedAt":"2026-03-06T01:54:00.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3hqJQJU3AgWAaPyjyMm28RrjwhU5ERk7MzHW2KKdsmh6","closedAt":"2026-03-06T01:34:17.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"4usCaNvt7qhwbXzLBshqUVTGxhvCm6zpmh4C6c3CBhyJ","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:53:44.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected None"},{"id":"CQuSKmM7MnXCMQaMfZCWhpwtirNDziY33z4DJaG5qMEA","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:39:37.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3E5PtHbhwEx7Z3tnFWEKvCwfW3b1RJaiAqp3WgVvsK9F","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:12:32.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"FUNvTLm6ZSU7c2KmmuLGCjb4ZUtGvoE8huD2NifDjenT","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:45:31.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AgRoqjmUfPaTGELq2NJ16fwMQTt1wduNXHaRKfsdv9c8","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:28:11.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"9AaXpWC1wtKr7JLQqXgia9Qc9ZSShvMu2rpg4CbCRZg6","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:13:41.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"4LwbeVd7CqQxtUBdfrxjziyVejdqgVP6nohAhZzpucLr","closedAt":"2026-03-05T22:57:21.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"FGDhQdQqtYqrvXth92uRf7FeaCL11eYrbcweoGEPpgpH","closedAt":"2026-03-05T22:39:42.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"BoqbfZFeEwAzkcWaAhFWADG15YPv2D4EBEWoaGKAemEh","closedAt":"2026-03-05T22:15:57.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"ARCUCntRyCN1ikYpqhSDjXg4MNHE5LdL5HdojpEbJ9xC","closedAt":"2026-03-05T04:49:49.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"8bGo6aXBhL5k4DAmBotgjGJ1VrorFpm8vqdhixVrypDE","closedAt":"2026-03-05T03:57:59.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"2auJYi8S2k13EnmWDU5ZThj6xnKZGAq7ez2iLqBtUFiV","closedAt":"2026-03-05T02:09:24.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"81eymzN4eD3Ftqrp5mZNCsb6eWVy5BgS49P6mddP6GfB","closedAt":"2026-03-05T01:59:23.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"CwJmB75voWVpyJe3dCx39C2qFRN4ebswhhZ9N11p486W","closedAt":"2026-03-01T06:01:05.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AcsLSeaq68ZnsHawAdrK9u6ZzfE2DLmH6FQKXBpqBUMV","closedAt":"2026-02-27T04:32:18.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"Ezi1CMzFPSN95sd9QKi9S99DryCwYuMSgE3hneMwZVQf","closedAt":"2026-02-26T22:42:01.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"}]}},{"id":"measured-outcome","instrument":{"id":"measured-outcome","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"This instrument reads 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It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},"impact":{"status":"recorded","forecast":{"selectedOptionId":"0","referenceOptionId":"1","reference":"runner-up","selectedPrice":2361,"referencePrice":1414,"forecastPct":66.97312588401698,"basis":"Final option TWAPs from each option's pool oracle, in raw observation units.","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json"},"realised":[{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"1d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"7d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."}]},"capital":{"status":"withheld","reason":"The chain has not been read for what this decision moved yet."},"agents":[],"authorities":[{"role":"moderator","account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"}]},{"id":"combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-BNdchaHiVxa14ZorY8djDqbswSR3Li3q3ZgvxMNP5chj","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-BNdchaHiVxa14ZorY8djDqbswSR3Li3q3ZgvxMNP5chj/","engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"BNdchaHiVxa14ZorY8djDqbswSR3Li3q3ZgvxMNP5chj","decider":{"account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"},"title":"Curation market #18: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","openedAt":"2026-04-28T09:29:56.000Z","closesAt":"2026-04-28T11:29:56.000Z","wallets":2,"counted":false,"form":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","options":[{"id":"0","label":"Smoke 1774018698420 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/b5a28049-a215-4d6e-9838-986fd3af9062","noOp":false},{"id":"1","label":"Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2","noOp":false},{"id":"2","label":"Smoke 1773873634809 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/153b86e7-2726-4a75-b171-4d24e0084ee8","noOp":false},{"id":"3","label":"None","noOp":false}],"measure":{"kind":"token-value","metric":"time-weighted conditional token price over the window","thresholdPct":0},"selectedOptionIds":["0"]},"purpose":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json","title":"Curation market #18: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","text":["Smoke 1774018698420 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/b5a28049-a215-4d6e-9838-986fd3af9062","Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2","Smoke 1773873634809 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/153b86e7-2726-4a75-b171-4d24e0084ee8","None"],"url":null},"knowledge":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/lane-findings.json","observedAt":"2026-10-13T04:47:50.441Z","rosterVersion":"3.0.0","readings":[{"name":"evidence","label":"Evidence","status":"filed"},{"name":"attack","label":"Attack","status":"filed"},{"name":"market","label":"Market","status":"filed"},{"name":"playbooks","label":"Playbooks","status":"standing"},{"name":"learning","label":"Learning","status":"standing"},{"name":"claims","label":"Claims","status":"standing"}]},"analysis":{"schemaVersion":1,"subject":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"BNdchaHiVxa14ZorY8djDqbswSR3Li3q3ZgvxMNP5chj"},"evaluatedAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","cutoffAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","evidence":[{"id":"804e032b20155b690d608c7a874dd5730a7399783841e5994f05f4ca0e94ba5b","source":"retained-input:804e032b20155b690d608c7a874dd5730a7399783841e5994f05f4ca0e94ba5b","revision":"804e032b20155b690d608c7a874dd5730a7399783841e5994f05f4ca0e94ba5b","digest":"804e032b20155b690d608c7a874dd5730a7399783841e5994f05f4ca0e94ba5b","observedAt":null,"knownAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z"}],"results":[{"id":"disclosures","instrument":{"id":"disclosures","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["804e032b20155b690d608c7a874dd5730a7399783841e5994f05f4ca0e94ba5b"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution."],"payload":{"kind":"disclosures","fields":[{"id":"decision-account","label":"Decision account","state":"present","note":"Confirmed onchain at the address shown."},{"id":"options","label":"Options","state":"present","note":"4 options: Smoke 1774018698420 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/b5a28049-a215-4d6e-9838-986fd3af9062; Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2; Smoke 1773873634809 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/153b86e7-2726-4a75-b171-4d24e0084ee8; None."},{"id":"selection-rule","label":"Selection rule","state":"present","note":"The best challenger must beat the default by 0%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close times are on the record."},{"id":"question","label":"Question","state":"present","note":"The decision's question is on the record."},{"id":"moderator","label":"Moderator","state":"present","note":"Moderated by star-test-dao."}]}},{"id":"participation","instrument":{"id":"participation","version":"2.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["804e032b20155b690d608c7a874dd5730a7399783841e5994f05f4ca0e94ba5b"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants.","Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":10,"wallets":2,"sizedVolumeUsd":32.891031,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":99.52664907342066,"topThreeWalletSharePct":100,"multiPoolWallets":2}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["804e032b20155b690d608c7a874dd5730a7399783841e5994f05f4ca0e94ba5b"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"payload":{"kind":"market","prices":{"0":3286,"1":1411,"2":1608,"3":1413},"defaultOption":"0","thresholdPct":0,"leader":"2","leaderMarginPct":-51.065124771758974,"selectedByRule":"0","recordedSelection":"0","provisional":false}},{"id":"selection-rule","instrument":{"id":"selection-rule","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["804e032b20155b690d608c7a874dd5730a7399783841e5994f05f4ca0e94ba5b"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics."],"payload":{"kind":"rule-observations","observations":[{"id":"tie-fails","headline":"A tie keeps the default","detail":"The threshold is zero and the selection rule is strict: a challenger's time-weighted price must strictly beat the default's, so a level print keeps the default."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch","evidenceIds":["804e032b20155b690d608c7a874dd5730a7399783841e5994f05f4ca0e94ba5b"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"Combinator asks no stake of 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default"}]}},{"id":"measured-outcome","instrument":{"id":"measured-outcome","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.","evidenceIds":["804e032b20155b690d608c7a874dd5730a7399783841e5994f05f4ca0e94ba5b"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null}],"interpretations":[{"id":"interpretation:market-selection","statement":"The recorded prices imply 0: the leading challenger's lead over the default is -51.07%, against a 0.00% threshold.","basis":"derivation","resultIds":["market-selection"],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"revisitWhen":["A correction to the final prices or governing rule."]}]},"execution":{"status":"withheld","reason":"No execution reading is published for this decision yet."},"outcome":{"status":"withheld","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},"impact":{"status":"recorded","forecast":{"selectedOptionId":"0","referenceOptionId":"2","reference":"runner-up","selectedPrice":3286,"referencePrice":1608,"forecastPct":104.35323383084577,"basis":"Final option TWAPs from each option's pool oracle, in raw observation units.","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json"},"realised":[{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"1d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"7d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."}]},"capital":{"status":"withheld","reason":"The chain has not been read for what this decision moved yet."},"agents":[],"authorities":[{"role":"moderator","account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"}]},{"id":"combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-E4YU2tg9DSZu3uxq2zzsTeCEAjgMNC2KxoHQPoniSgQv","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-E4YU2tg9DSZu3uxq2zzsTeCEAjgMNC2KxoHQPoniSgQv/","engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"E4YU2tg9DSZu3uxq2zzsTeCEAjgMNC2KxoHQPoniSgQv","decider":{"account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"},"title":"Curation market #19: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","openedAt":"2026-04-28T14:41:26.000Z","closesAt":"2026-04-28T14:51:26.000Z","wallets":1,"counted":false,"form":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","options":[{"id":"0","label":"Smoke 1774018698420 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/GmqwoU2r4nzoM4U6aSRnhwCFjvHSC58iFhexB2P4dDLA","noOp":false},{"id":"1","label":"Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2","noOp":false},{"id":"2","label":"Smoke 1773873634809 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/153b86e7-2726-4a75-b171-4d24e0084ee8","noOp":false},{"id":"3","label":"None","noOp":false}],"measure":{"kind":"token-value","metric":"time-weighted conditional token price over the window","thresholdPct":0},"selectedOptionIds":["0"]},"purpose":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json","title":"Curation market #19: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","text":["Smoke 1774018698420 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/GmqwoU2r4nzoM4U6aSRnhwCFjvHSC58iFhexB2P4dDLA","Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2","Smoke 1773873634809 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/153b86e7-2726-4a75-b171-4d24e0084ee8","None"],"url":null},"knowledge":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/lane-findings.json","observedAt":"2026-10-13T04:47:50.441Z","rosterVersion":"3.0.0","readings":[{"name":"evidence","label":"Evidence","status":"filed"},{"name":"attack","label":"Attack","status":"filed"},{"name":"market","label":"Market","status":"filed"},{"name":"playbooks","label":"Playbooks","status":"standing"},{"name":"learning","label":"Learning","status":"standing"},{"name":"claims","label":"Claims","status":"standing"}]},"analysis":{"schemaVersion":1,"subject":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"E4YU2tg9DSZu3uxq2zzsTeCEAjgMNC2KxoHQPoniSgQv"},"evaluatedAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","cutoffAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","evidence":[{"id":"2038b9f802a4c61a3a0fd9b6cea21b65bfbf23f251bc15c119eb13f3491629e5","source":"retained-input:2038b9f802a4c61a3a0fd9b6cea21b65bfbf23f251bc15c119eb13f3491629e5","revision":"2038b9f802a4c61a3a0fd9b6cea21b65bfbf23f251bc15c119eb13f3491629e5","digest":"2038b9f802a4c61a3a0fd9b6cea21b65bfbf23f251bc15c119eb13f3491629e5","observedAt":null,"knownAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z"}],"results":[{"id":"disclosures","instrument":{"id":"disclosures","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["2038b9f802a4c61a3a0fd9b6cea21b65bfbf23f251bc15c119eb13f3491629e5"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution."],"payload":{"kind":"disclosures","fields":[{"id":"decision-account","label":"Decision account","state":"present","note":"Confirmed onchain at the address shown."},{"id":"options","label":"Options","state":"present","note":"4 options: Smoke 1774018698420 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/GmqwoU2r4nzoM4U6aSRnhwCFjvHSC58iFhexB2P4dDLA; Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2; Smoke 1773873634809 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/153b86e7-2726-4a75-b171-4d24e0084ee8; None."},{"id":"selection-rule","label":"Selection rule","state":"present","note":"The best challenger must beat the default by 0%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close times are on the record."},{"id":"question","label":"Question","state":"present","note":"The decision's question is on the record."},{"id":"moderator","label":"Moderator","state":"present","note":"Moderated by star-test-dao."}]}},{"id":"participation","instrument":{"id":"participation","version":"2.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["2038b9f802a4c61a3a0fd9b6cea21b65bfbf23f251bc15c119eb13f3491629e5"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants.","Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":4,"wallets":1,"sizedVolumeUsd":4,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":100,"topThreeWalletSharePct":100,"multiPoolWallets":1}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["2038b9f802a4c61a3a0fd9b6cea21b65bfbf23f251bc15c119eb13f3491629e5"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"payload":{"kind":"market","prices":{"0":1963,"1":1963,"2":1892,"3":1892},"defaultOption":"0","thresholdPct":0,"leader":"1","leaderMarginPct":0,"selectedByRule":"0","recordedSelection":"0","provisional":false}},{"id":"selection-rule","instrument":{"id":"selection-rule","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["2038b9f802a4c61a3a0fd9b6cea21b65bfbf23f251bc15c119eb13f3491629e5"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics."],"payload":{"kind":"rule-observations","observations":[{"id":"tie-fails","headline":"A tie keeps the default","detail":"The threshold is zero and the selection rule is strict: a challenger's time-weighted price must strictly beat the default's, so a level print keeps the default."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch","evidenceIds":["2038b9f802a4c61a3a0fd9b6cea21b65bfbf23f251bc15c119eb13f3491629e5"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"Combinator asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble","evidenceIds":["2038b9f802a4c61a3a0fd9b6cea21b65bfbf23f251bc15c119eb13f3491629e5"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"late-window-outcome-steering","instrument":{"id":"late-window-outcome-steering","version":"3.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"this market selects among 4 options, and the late-window playbook reads one challenger's edge over the 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evidence"},{"id":"near-neutral-net","matched":false,"evidence":"no wallet ended near-neutral after high turnover net of arbitrage"},{"id":"arb-frequency-band","matched":false,"evidence":"no wallet traded inside the frequency band net of arbitrage pairs"},{"id":"stripped-tilt-shift","matched":false,"evidence":"tilt -0.50 → -0.50 (shift 0.00); 0 wallets showing wash evidence"}]}},{"id":"coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly","instrument":{"id":"coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly","version":"3.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"Combinator asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or 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default"},{"id":"6qy7Au1TwCUTw7TyAxuwq7GJ1Gsg521r5ZxQ5649NyoE","closedAt":"2026-04-27T17:16:40.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"ABNqZSdgqfUvnhbEgeN8j1ueqm3eacXSyXtHHmCTJQqk","closedAt":"2026-04-27T15:57:26.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"Ajf4B7QcDgn4fEcMeisSkcXACYDtb4f8dvgMf8n9iSj","closedAt":"2026-04-27T15:38:07.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"5Nzz9ZLhxiyFVC9PcQZWTcQdBVWr63ZBhmkzczfKBgfW","closedAt":"2026-04-21T14:24:07.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"6wc1d16cYbDQCMkjk4Ro5HKRBV4NAvGTQ1sTEcPu48YW","closedAt":"2026-04-20T23:46:51.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"ADMNYiZ7Qfn2B1CyWEGT3QnbNqicQbXSbXLSGqLEVkyf","closedAt":"2026-04-20T15:39:58.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected None"},{"id":"BMKvu43v7jXWK9PYfRHK3igqJNAn8ghSYXnui48Bg1zL","closedAt":"2026-04-17T07:42:19.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"5jm2Hp3zbsyszC7bidNNLvVfVdNWhp37UvVAibmUsMMo","closedAt":"2026-04-17T05:29:07.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AFSVLfBMoS1okaWQUmGegwCgTMCVvUxhHc57V1Bn1LAg","closedAt":"2026-03-22T00:58:25.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"2xCMbQajjPp3bHQQLFKFBnR9Hhu8LzBfGZNpmEbHiLZk","closedAt":"2026-03-20T21:50:52.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"6LMJoZELX8aVqTq4795fopmTBxJrKK6TDgvi3b2wkxE9","closedAt":"2026-03-20T15:58:01.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3SJJcwzBePBmbJsawxYmK4MLgB5iTP7Ay2jZcZLGHhHa","closedAt":"2026-03-20T14:47:59.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AokSNt9b5KJQmrWTU58ZmFgpQMAMb2YsGykxEH7hK7dA","closedAt":"2026-03-20T12:30:54.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"B91t5sa8bELGvCJXHqKoywkKdEaQ136iwMJ8LoWeMnVB","closedAt":"2026-03-19T14:31:26.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"HGVKyYNEoYKZimUqxvYnzyaPWSWah8XLb6PR5KQig79y","closedAt":"2026-03-19T12:05:15.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"CGBUwTdgGZYh4xExv1xw7JQCstBf2S8WRBzWXRkDy8yX","closedAt":"2026-03-12T00:27:37.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"9w18ZZEQtNSS74LHLCo1VBT77ekuSHhamwXNTMhte98G","closedAt":"2026-03-12T00:13:01.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected darryn"},{"id":"97XNK9U2wuByMANupATR4mSivtB3ZzYhpDXVzWB4yssR","closedAt":"2026-03-09T00:20:52.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"6gzjwFmxhznY5mYCBM1YadP8BN6BGZ2VNfHGXoEJgaNd","closedAt":"2026-03-07T01:22:20.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"J9F61XfRJX1Z2DxdcS711fJGaBZRKRryuuVFxmLHhKQb","closedAt":"2026-03-06T02:19:19.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"8by7Pm9Gw9n3aXDrHomZ2YZ9UeZo6FvWzQn5iHGYuzKQ","closedAt":"2026-03-06T02:07:04.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"GxwRhQdzL3C2e3bwfwfMeNDPDHzHLovDZaZ41aiPqrPF","closedAt":"2026-03-06T01:54:00.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3hqJQJU3AgWAaPyjyMm28RrjwhU5ERk7MzHW2KKdsmh6","closedAt":"2026-03-06T01:34:17.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"4usCaNvt7qhwbXzLBshqUVTGxhvCm6zpmh4C6c3CBhyJ","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:53:44.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected None"},{"id":"CQuSKmM7MnXCMQaMfZCWhpwtirNDziY33z4DJaG5qMEA","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:39:37.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3E5PtHbhwEx7Z3tnFWEKvCwfW3b1RJaiAqp3WgVvsK9F","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:12:32.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"FUNvTLm6ZSU7c2KmmuLGCjb4ZUtGvoE8huD2NifDjenT","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:45:31.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AgRoqjmUfPaTGELq2NJ16fwMQTt1wduNXHaRKfsdv9c8","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:28:11.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"9AaXpWC1wtKr7JLQqXgia9Qc9ZSShvMu2rpg4CbCRZg6","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:13:41.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"4LwbeVd7CqQxtUBdfrxjziyVejdqgVP6nohAhZzpucLr","closedAt":"2026-03-05T22:57:21.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"FGDhQdQqtYqrvXth92uRf7FeaCL11eYrbcweoGEPpgpH","closedAt":"2026-03-05T22:39:42.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"BoqbfZFeEwAzkcWaAhFWADG15YPv2D4EBEWoaGKAemEh","closedAt":"2026-03-05T22:15:57.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"ARCUCntRyCN1ikYpqhSDjXg4MNHE5LdL5HdojpEbJ9xC","closedAt":"2026-03-05T04:49:49.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"8bGo6aXBhL5k4DAmBotgjGJ1VrorFpm8vqdhixVrypDE","closedAt":"2026-03-05T03:57:59.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"2auJYi8S2k13EnmWDU5ZThj6xnKZGAq7ez2iLqBtUFiV","closedAt":"2026-03-05T02:09:24.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"81eymzN4eD3Ftqrp5mZNCsb6eWVy5BgS49P6mddP6GfB","closedAt":"2026-03-05T01:59:23.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"CwJmB75voWVpyJe3dCx39C2qFRN4ebswhhZ9N11p486W","closedAt":"2026-03-01T06:01:05.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AcsLSeaq68ZnsHawAdrK9u6ZzfE2DLmH6FQKXBpqBUMV","closedAt":"2026-02-27T04:32:18.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"Ezi1CMzFPSN95sd9QKi9S99DryCwYuMSgE3hneMwZVQf","closedAt":"2026-02-26T22:42:01.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"}]}},{"id":"measured-outcome","instrument":{"id":"measured-outcome","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.","evidenceIds":["2038b9f802a4c61a3a0fd9b6cea21b65bfbf23f251bc15c119eb13f3491629e5"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null}],"interpretations":[{"id":"interpretation:market-selection","statement":"The recorded prices imply 0: the leading challenger's lead over the default is 0.00%, against a 0.00% threshold.","basis":"derivation","resultIds":["market-selection"],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"revisitWhen":["A correction to the final prices or governing rule."]}]},"execution":{"status":"withheld","reason":"No execution reading is published for this decision yet."},"outcome":{"status":"withheld","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},"impact":{"status":"recorded","forecast":{"selectedOptionId":"0","referenceOptionId":"1","reference":"runner-up","selectedPrice":1963,"referencePrice":1963,"forecastPct":0,"basis":"Final option TWAPs from each option's pool oracle, in raw observation units.","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json"},"realised":[{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"1d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"7d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."}]},"capital":{"status":"withheld","reason":"The chain has not been read for what this decision moved yet."},"agents":[],"authorities":[{"role":"moderator","account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"}]},{"id":"combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-EhP8BuLk3Cc6ghhKrX9xBZBv6YSFYrLE6pLfMHzWERwi","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-EhP8BuLk3Cc6ghhKrX9xBZBv6YSFYrLE6pLfMHzWERwi/","engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"EhP8BuLk3Cc6ghhKrX9xBZBv6YSFYrLE6pLfMHzWERwi","decider":{"account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"},"title":"Curation market #20: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","openedAt":"2026-04-28T18:08:34.000Z","closesAt":"2026-04-28T19:08:34.000Z","wallets":0,"counted":false,"form":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","options":[{"id":"0","label":"Smoke 1773877271522 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/602489f3-bfc8-4ddf-bfbd-adc0947fad84","noOp":false},{"id":"1","label":"Smoke 1773875559082 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/7853db05-6828-4370-bf3b-9c3575943e37","noOp":false},{"id":"2","label":"Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2","noOp":false},{"id":"3","label":"None","noOp":false}],"measure":{"kind":"token-value","metric":"time-weighted conditional token price over the window","thresholdPct":0},"selectedOptionIds":["0"]},"purpose":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json","title":"Curation market #20: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","text":["Smoke 1773877271522 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/602489f3-bfc8-4ddf-bfbd-adc0947fad84","Smoke 1773875559082 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/7853db05-6828-4370-bf3b-9c3575943e37","Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2","None"],"url":null},"knowledge":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/lane-findings.json","observedAt":"2026-10-13T04:47:50.441Z","rosterVersion":"3.0.0","readings":[{"name":"evidence","label":"Evidence","status":"withheld"},{"name":"attack","label":"Attack","status":"withheld"},{"name":"market","label":"Market","status":"filed"},{"name":"playbooks","label":"Playbooks","status":"standing"},{"name":"learning","label":"Learning","status":"standing"},{"name":"claims","label":"Claims","status":"standing"}]},"analysis":{"schemaVersion":1,"subject":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"EhP8BuLk3Cc6ghhKrX9xBZBv6YSFYrLE6pLfMHzWERwi"},"evaluatedAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","cutoffAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","evidence":[{"id":"55ccac01a299eb09af37d046a71c75710e9c8beeb15f25e844bcf9a71218f3a9","source":"retained-input:55ccac01a299eb09af37d046a71c75710e9c8beeb15f25e844bcf9a71218f3a9","revision":"55ccac01a299eb09af37d046a71c75710e9c8beeb15f25e844bcf9a71218f3a9","digest":"55ccac01a299eb09af37d046a71c75710e9c8beeb15f25e844bcf9a71218f3a9","observedAt":null,"knownAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z"}],"results":[{"id":"disclosures","instrument":{"id":"disclosures","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["55ccac01a299eb09af37d046a71c75710e9c8beeb15f25e844bcf9a71218f3a9"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution."],"payload":{"kind":"disclosures","fields":[{"id":"decision-account","label":"Decision account","state":"present","note":"Confirmed onchain at the address shown."},{"id":"options","label":"Options","state":"present","note":"4 options: Smoke 1773877271522 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/602489f3-bfc8-4ddf-bfbd-adc0947fad84; Smoke 1773875559082 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/7853db05-6828-4370-bf3b-9c3575943e37; Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2; None."},{"id":"selection-rule","label":"Selection rule","state":"present","note":"The best challenger must beat the default by 0%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close times are on the record."},{"id":"question","label":"Question","state":"present","note":"The decision's question is on the record."},{"id":"moderator","label":"Moderator","state":"present","note":"Moderated by star-test-dao."}]}},{"id":"participation","instrument":{"id":"participation","version":"2.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["55ccac01a299eb09af37d046a71c75710e9c8beeb15f25e844bcf9a71218f3a9"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants.","Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":0,"wallets":0,"sizedVolumeUsd":0,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":null,"topThreeWalletSharePct":null,"multiPoolWallets":0}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["55ccac01a299eb09af37d046a71c75710e9c8beeb15f25e844bcf9a71218f3a9"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"payload":{"kind":"market","prices":{"0":2173,"1":2173,"2":2173,"3":2173},"defaultOption":"0","thresholdPct":0,"leader":"1","leaderMarginPct":0,"selectedByRule":"0","recordedSelection":"0","provisional":false}},{"id":"selection-rule","instrument":{"id":"selection-rule","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["55ccac01a299eb09af37d046a71c75710e9c8beeb15f25e844bcf9a71218f3a9"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics."],"payload":{"kind":"rule-observations","observations":[{"id":"tie-fails","headline":"A tie keeps the default","detail":"The threshold is zero and the selection rule is strict: a challenger's time-weighted price must strictly beat the default's, so a level print keeps the default."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch","evidenceIds":["55ccac01a299eb09af37d046a71c75710e9c8beeb15f25e844bcf9a71218f3a9"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"Combinator asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble","evidenceIds":["55ccac01a299eb09af37d046a71c75710e9c8beeb15f25e844bcf9a71218f3a9"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"late-window-outcome-steering","instrument":{"id":"late-window-outcome-steering","version":"3.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"this market selects among 4 options, and the late-window playbook reads one challenger's edge over the default","evidenceIds":["55ccac01a299eb09af37d046a71c75710e9c8beeb15f25e844bcf9a71218f3a9"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"wash-volume-alignment-inflation","instrument":{"id":"wash-volume-alignment-inflation","version":"4.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"no value-moving trade was 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estimate of decision quality."],"payload":{"kind":"history","cutoffAt":"2026-04-28T18:08:34.000Z","decisions":[{"id":"E4YU2tg9DSZu3uxq2zzsTeCEAjgMNC2KxoHQPoniSgQv","closedAt":"2026-04-28T14:51:26.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"BNdchaHiVxa14ZorY8djDqbswSR3Li3q3ZgvxMNP5chj","closedAt":"2026-04-28T11:29:56.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"7JwoX6m4w5UFW3mT3EECfTZuxMvYWWezmWzmkzF4sjeV","closedAt":"2026-04-27T17:30:16.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"6qy7Au1TwCUTw7TyAxuwq7GJ1Gsg521r5ZxQ5649NyoE","closedAt":"2026-04-27T17:16:40.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"ABNqZSdgqfUvnhbEgeN8j1ueqm3eacXSyXtHHmCTJQqk","closedAt":"2026-04-27T15:57:26.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"Ajf4B7QcDgn4fEcMeisSkcXACYDtb4f8dvgMf8n9iSj","closedAt":"2026-04-27T15:38:07.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"5Nzz9ZLhxiyFVC9PcQZWTcQdBVWr63ZBhmkzczfKBgfW","closedAt":"2026-04-21T14:24:07.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"6wc1d16cYbDQCMkjk4Ro5HKRBV4NAvGTQ1sTEcPu48YW","closedAt":"2026-04-20T23:46:51.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"ADMNYiZ7Qfn2B1CyWEGT3QnbNqicQbXSbXLSGqLEVkyf","closedAt":"2026-04-20T15:39:58.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected None"},{"id":"BMKvu43v7jXWK9PYfRHK3igqJNAn8ghSYXnui48Bg1zL","closedAt":"2026-04-17T07:42:19.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"5jm2Hp3zbsyszC7bidNNLvVfVdNWhp37UvVAibmUsMMo","closedAt":"2026-04-17T05:29:07.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AFSVLfBMoS1okaWQUmGegwCgTMCVvUxhHc57V1Bn1LAg","closedAt":"2026-03-22T00:58:25.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"2xCMbQajjPp3bHQQLFKFBnR9Hhu8LzBfGZNpmEbHiLZk","closedAt":"2026-03-20T21:50:52.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"6LMJoZELX8aVqTq4795fopmTBxJrKK6TDgvi3b2wkxE9","closedAt":"2026-03-20T15:58:01.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3SJJcwzBePBmbJsawxYmK4MLgB5iTP7Ay2jZcZLGHhHa","closedAt":"2026-03-20T14:47:59.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AokSNt9b5KJQmrWTU58ZmFgpQMAMb2YsGykxEH7hK7dA","closedAt":"2026-03-20T12:30:54.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"B91t5sa8bELGvCJXHqKoywkKdEaQ136iwMJ8LoWeMnVB","closedAt":"2026-03-19T14:31:26.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"HGVKyYNEoYKZimUqxvYnzyaPWSWah8XLb6PR5KQig79y","closedAt":"2026-03-19T12:05:15.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"CGBUwTdgGZYh4xExv1xw7JQCstBf2S8WRBzWXRkDy8yX","closedAt":"2026-03-12T00:27:37.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"9w18ZZEQtNSS74LHLCo1VBT77ekuSHhamwXNTMhte98G","closedAt":"2026-03-12T00:13:01.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected darryn"},{"id":"97XNK9U2wuByMANupATR4mSivtB3ZzYhpDXVzWB4yssR","closedAt":"2026-03-09T00:20:52.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"6gzjwFmxhznY5mYCBM1YadP8BN6BGZ2VNfHGXoEJgaNd","closedAt":"2026-03-07T01:22:20.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"J9F61XfRJX1Z2DxdcS711fJGaBZRKRryuuVFxmLHhKQb","closedAt":"2026-03-06T02:19:19.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"8by7Pm9Gw9n3aXDrHomZ2YZ9UeZo6FvWzQn5iHGYuzKQ","closedAt":"2026-03-06T02:07:04.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"GxwRhQdzL3C2e3bwfwfMeNDPDHzHLovDZaZ41aiPqrPF","closedAt":"2026-03-06T01:54:00.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3hqJQJU3AgWAaPyjyMm28RrjwhU5ERk7MzHW2KKdsmh6","closedAt":"2026-03-06T01:34:17.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"4usCaNvt7qhwbXzLBshqUVTGxhvCm6zpmh4C6c3CBhyJ","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:53:44.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected None"},{"id":"CQuSKmM7MnXCMQaMfZCWhpwtirNDziY33z4DJaG5qMEA","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:39:37.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3E5PtHbhwEx7Z3tnFWEKvCwfW3b1RJaiAqp3WgVvsK9F","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:12:32.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"FUNvTLm6ZSU7c2KmmuLGCjb4ZUtGvoE8huD2NifDjenT","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:45:31.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AgRoqjmUfPaTGELq2NJ16fwMQTt1wduNXHaRKfsdv9c8","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:28:11.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"9AaXpWC1wtKr7JLQqXgia9Qc9ZSShvMu2rpg4CbCRZg6","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:13:41.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"4LwbeVd7CqQxtUBdfrxjziyVejdqgVP6nohAhZzpucLr","closedAt":"2026-03-05T22:57:21.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"FGDhQdQqtYqrvXth92uRf7FeaCL11eYrbcweoGEPpgpH","closedAt":"2026-03-05T22:39:42.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"BoqbfZFeEwAzkcWaAhFWADG15YPv2D4EBEWoaGKAemEh","closedAt":"2026-03-05T22:15:57.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"ARCUCntRyCN1ikYpqhSDjXg4MNHE5LdL5HdojpEbJ9xC","closedAt":"2026-03-05T04:49:49.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"8bGo6aXBhL5k4DAmBotgjGJ1VrorFpm8vqdhixVrypDE","closedAt":"2026-03-05T03:57:59.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"2auJYi8S2k13EnmWDU5ZThj6xnKZGAq7ez2iLqBtUFiV","closedAt":"2026-03-05T02:09:24.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"81eymzN4eD3Ftqrp5mZNCsb6eWVy5BgS49P6mddP6GfB","closedAt":"2026-03-05T01:59:23.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"CwJmB75voWVpyJe3dCx39C2qFRN4ebswhhZ9N11p486W","closedAt":"2026-03-01T06:01:05.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AcsLSeaq68ZnsHawAdrK9u6ZzfE2DLmH6FQKXBpqBUMV","closedAt":"2026-02-27T04:32:18.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"Ezi1CMzFPSN95sd9QKi9S99DryCwYuMSgE3hneMwZVQf","closedAt":"2026-02-26T22:42:01.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"}]}},{"id":"measured-outcome","instrument":{"id":"measured-outcome","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.","evidenceIds":["55ccac01a299eb09af37d046a71c75710e9c8beeb15f25e844bcf9a71218f3a9"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null}],"interpretations":[{"id":"interpretation:market-selection","statement":"The recorded prices imply 0: the leading challenger's lead over the default is 0.00%, against a 0.00% threshold.","basis":"derivation","resultIds":["market-selection"],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"revisitWhen":["A correction to the final prices or governing rule."]}]},"execution":{"status":"withheld","reason":"No execution reading is published for this decision yet."},"outcome":{"status":"withheld","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},"impact":{"status":"recorded","forecast":{"selectedOptionId":"0","referenceOptionId":"1","reference":"runner-up","selectedPrice":2173,"referencePrice":2173,"forecastPct":0,"basis":"Final option TWAPs from each option's pool oracle, in raw observation units.","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json"},"realised":[{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"1d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"7d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."}]},"capital":{"status":"withheld","reason":"The chain has not been read for what this decision moved yet."},"agents":[],"authorities":[{"role":"moderator","account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"}]},{"id":"combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-7WBia71dEneMjsQfG6ZFEqUN4e8QHSQZzU2ipkYkBnxn","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-7WBia71dEneMjsQfG6ZFEqUN4e8QHSQZzU2ipkYkBnxn/","engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"7WBia71dEneMjsQfG6ZFEqUN4e8QHSQZzU2ipkYkBnxn","decider":{"account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"},"title":"Curation market #21: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","openedAt":"2026-04-29T14:16:30.000Z","closesAt":"2026-04-29T15:16:30.000Z","wallets":2,"counted":false,"form":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","options":[{"id":"0","label":"Smoke 1773875559082 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/7853db05-6828-4370-bf3b-9c3575943e37","noOp":false},{"id":"1","label":"Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2","noOp":false},{"id":"2","label":"Smoke 1773873634809 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/153b86e7-2726-4a75-b171-4d24e0084ee8","noOp":false},{"id":"3","label":"None","noOp":false}],"measure":{"kind":"token-value","metric":"time-weighted conditional token price over the window","thresholdPct":0},"selectedOptionIds":["0"]},"purpose":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json","title":"Curation market #21: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","text":["Smoke 1773875559082 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/7853db05-6828-4370-bf3b-9c3575943e37","Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2","Smoke 1773873634809 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/153b86e7-2726-4a75-b171-4d24e0084ee8","None"],"url":null},"knowledge":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/lane-findings.json","observedAt":"2026-10-13T04:47:50.441Z","rosterVersion":"3.0.0","readings":[{"name":"evidence","label":"Evidence","status":"filed"},{"name":"attack","label":"Attack","status":"filed"},{"name":"market","label":"Market","status":"filed"},{"name":"playbooks","label":"Playbooks","status":"standing"},{"name":"learning","label":"Learning","status":"standing"},{"name":"claims","label":"Claims","status":"standing"}]},"analysis":{"schemaVersion":1,"subject":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"7WBia71dEneMjsQfG6ZFEqUN4e8QHSQZzU2ipkYkBnxn"},"evaluatedAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","cutoffAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","evidence":[{"id":"718ffd9c9d17478450b718aca9aae4ef74d5e6c6a79b5ef0e049af2a302b1b17","source":"retained-input:718ffd9c9d17478450b718aca9aae4ef74d5e6c6a79b5ef0e049af2a302b1b17","revision":"718ffd9c9d17478450b718aca9aae4ef74d5e6c6a79b5ef0e049af2a302b1b17","digest":"718ffd9c9d17478450b718aca9aae4ef74d5e6c6a79b5ef0e049af2a302b1b17","observedAt":null,"knownAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z"}],"results":[{"id":"disclosures","instrument":{"id":"disclosures","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["718ffd9c9d17478450b718aca9aae4ef74d5e6c6a79b5ef0e049af2a302b1b17"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution."],"payload":{"kind":"disclosures","fields":[{"id":"decision-account","label":"Decision account","state":"present","note":"Confirmed onchain at the address shown."},{"id":"options","label":"Options","state":"present","note":"4 options: Smoke 1773875559082 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/7853db05-6828-4370-bf3b-9c3575943e37; Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2; Smoke 1773873634809 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/153b86e7-2726-4a75-b171-4d24e0084ee8; None."},{"id":"selection-rule","label":"Selection rule","state":"present","note":"The best challenger must beat the default by 0%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close times are on the record."},{"id":"question","label":"Question","state":"present","note":"The decision's question is on the record."},{"id":"moderator","label":"Moderator","state":"present","note":"Moderated by star-test-dao."}]}},{"id":"participation","instrument":{"id":"participation","version":"2.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["718ffd9c9d17478450b718aca9aae4ef74d5e6c6a79b5ef0e049af2a302b1b17"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants.","Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":4,"wallets":2,"sizedVolumeUsd":2.108257,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":94.86509472042545,"topThreeWalletSharePct":100,"multiPoolWallets":0}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["718ffd9c9d17478450b718aca9aae4ef74d5e6c6a79b5ef0e049af2a302b1b17"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"payload":{"kind":"market","prices":{"0":2607,"1":2173,"2":2173,"3":2173},"defaultOption":"0","thresholdPct":0,"leader":"1","leaderMarginPct":-16.64748753356348,"selectedByRule":"0","recordedSelection":"0","provisional":false}},{"id":"selection-rule","instrument":{"id":"selection-rule","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["718ffd9c9d17478450b718aca9aae4ef74d5e6c6a79b5ef0e049af2a302b1b17"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics."],"payload":{"kind":"rule-observations","observations":[{"id":"tie-fails","headline":"A tie keeps the default","detail":"The threshold is zero and the selection rule is strict: a challenger's time-weighted price must strictly beat the default's, so a level print keeps the default."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch","evidenceIds":["718ffd9c9d17478450b718aca9aae4ef74d5e6c6a79b5ef0e049af2a302b1b17"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"Combinator asks no stake of 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evidence"},{"id":"near-neutral-net","matched":false,"evidence":"no wallet ended near-neutral after high turnover net of arbitrage"},{"id":"arb-frequency-band","matched":false,"evidence":"no wallet traded inside the frequency band net of arbitrage pairs"},{"id":"stripped-tilt-shift","matched":false,"evidence":"tilt -0.90 → -0.90 (shift 0.00); 0 wallets showing wash evidence"}]}},{"id":"coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly","instrument":{"id":"coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly","version":"3.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"Combinator asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or 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| https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"J9F61XfRJX1Z2DxdcS711fJGaBZRKRryuuVFxmLHhKQb","closedAt":"2026-03-06T02:19:19.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"8by7Pm9Gw9n3aXDrHomZ2YZ9UeZo6FvWzQn5iHGYuzKQ","closedAt":"2026-03-06T02:07:04.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"GxwRhQdzL3C2e3bwfwfMeNDPDHzHLovDZaZ41aiPqrPF","closedAt":"2026-03-06T01:54:00.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3hqJQJU3AgWAaPyjyMm28RrjwhU5ERk7MzHW2KKdsmh6","closedAt":"2026-03-06T01:34:17.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"4usCaNvt7qhwbXzLBshqUVTGxhvCm6zpmh4C6c3CBhyJ","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:53:44.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected None"},{"id":"CQuSKmM7MnXCMQaMfZCWhpwtirNDziY33z4DJaG5qMEA","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:39:37.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3E5PtHbhwEx7Z3tnFWEKvCwfW3b1RJaiAqp3WgVvsK9F","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:12:32.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"FUNvTLm6ZSU7c2KmmuLGCjb4ZUtGvoE8huD2NifDjenT","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:45:31.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AgRoqjmUfPaTGELq2NJ16fwMQTt1wduNXHaRKfsdv9c8","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:28:11.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"9AaXpWC1wtKr7JLQqXgia9Qc9ZSShvMu2rpg4CbCRZg6","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:13:41.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"4LwbeVd7CqQxtUBdfrxjziyVejdqgVP6nohAhZzpucLr","closedAt":"2026-03-05T22:57:21.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"FGDhQdQqtYqrvXth92uRf7FeaCL11eYrbcweoGEPpgpH","closedAt":"2026-03-05T22:39:42.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | 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default"},{"id":"AcsLSeaq68ZnsHawAdrK9u6ZzfE2DLmH6FQKXBpqBUMV","closedAt":"2026-02-27T04:32:18.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"Ezi1CMzFPSN95sd9QKi9S99DryCwYuMSgE3hneMwZVQf","closedAt":"2026-02-26T22:42:01.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"}]}},{"id":"measured-outcome","instrument":{"id":"measured-outcome","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.","evidenceIds":["718ffd9c9d17478450b718aca9aae4ef74d5e6c6a79b5ef0e049af2a302b1b17"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null}],"interpretations":[{"id":"interpretation:market-selection","statement":"The recorded prices imply 0: the leading challenger's lead over the default is -16.65%, against a 0.00% threshold.","basis":"derivation","resultIds":["market-selection"],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"revisitWhen":["A correction to the final prices or governing rule."]}]},"execution":{"status":"withheld","reason":"No execution reading is published for this decision yet."},"outcome":{"status":"withheld","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},"impact":{"status":"recorded","forecast":{"selectedOptionId":"0","referenceOptionId":"1","reference":"runner-up","selectedPrice":2607,"referencePrice":2173,"forecastPct":19.972388403129315,"basis":"Final option TWAPs from each option's pool oracle, in raw observation units.","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json"},"realised":[{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"1d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"7d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."}]},"capital":{"status":"withheld","reason":"The chain has not been read for what this decision moved yet."},"agents":[],"authorities":[{"role":"moderator","account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"}]},{"id":"combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-FnQ116a7JLVdgKFtePYgqENWm9qYnY5yvoEdm8XAEf36","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-FnQ116a7JLVdgKFtePYgqENWm9qYnY5yvoEdm8XAEf36/","engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"FnQ116a7JLVdgKFtePYgqENWm9qYnY5yvoEdm8XAEf36","decider":{"account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"},"title":"Curation market #22: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","openedAt":"2026-04-29T16:41:44.000Z","closesAt":"2026-04-29T17:11:44.000Z","wallets":2,"counted":false,"form":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","options":[{"id":"0","label":"Smoke 1774018698420 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/GmqwoU2r4nzoM4U6aSRnhwCFjvHSC58iFhexB2P4dDLA","noOp":false},{"id":"1","label":"Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2","noOp":false},{"id":"2","label":"Smoke 1773873634809 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/153b86e7-2726-4a75-b171-4d24e0084ee8","noOp":false},{"id":"3","label":"None","noOp":false}],"measure":{"kind":"token-value","metric":"time-weighted conditional token price over the window","thresholdPct":0},"selectedOptionIds":["3"]},"purpose":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json","title":"Curation market #22: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","text":["Smoke 1774018698420 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/GmqwoU2r4nzoM4U6aSRnhwCFjvHSC58iFhexB2P4dDLA","Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2","Smoke 1773873634809 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/153b86e7-2726-4a75-b171-4d24e0084ee8","None"],"url":null},"knowledge":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/lane-findings.json","observedAt":"2026-10-13T04:47:50.441Z","rosterVersion":"3.0.0","readings":[{"name":"evidence","label":"Evidence","status":"filed"},{"name":"attack","label":"Attack","status":"filed"},{"name":"market","label":"Market","status":"filed"},{"name":"playbooks","label":"Playbooks","status":"standing"},{"name":"learning","label":"Learning","status":"standing"},{"name":"claims","label":"Claims","status":"standing"}]},"analysis":{"schemaVersion":1,"subject":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"FnQ116a7JLVdgKFtePYgqENWm9qYnY5yvoEdm8XAEf36"},"evaluatedAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","cutoffAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","evidence":[{"id":"2b0efb1a425eade386740f41317cada3341522869a96e999e763c7344adbb112","source":"retained-input:2b0efb1a425eade386740f41317cada3341522869a96e999e763c7344adbb112","revision":"2b0efb1a425eade386740f41317cada3341522869a96e999e763c7344adbb112","digest":"2b0efb1a425eade386740f41317cada3341522869a96e999e763c7344adbb112","observedAt":null,"knownAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z"}],"results":[{"id":"disclosures","instrument":{"id":"disclosures","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["2b0efb1a425eade386740f41317cada3341522869a96e999e763c7344adbb112"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution."],"payload":{"kind":"disclosures","fields":[{"id":"decision-account","label":"Decision account","state":"present","note":"Confirmed onchain at the address shown."},{"id":"options","label":"Options","state":"present","note":"4 options: Smoke 1774018698420 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/GmqwoU2r4nzoM4U6aSRnhwCFjvHSC58iFhexB2P4dDLA; Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2; Smoke 1773873634809 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/153b86e7-2726-4a75-b171-4d24e0084ee8; None."},{"id":"selection-rule","label":"Selection rule","state":"present","note":"The best challenger must beat the default by 0%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close times are on the record."},{"id":"question","label":"Question","state":"present","note":"The decision's question is on the record."},{"id":"moderator","label":"Moderator","state":"present","note":"Moderated by star-test-dao."}]}},{"id":"participation","instrument":{"id":"participation","version":"2.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["2b0efb1a425eade386740f41317cada3341522869a96e999e763c7344adbb112"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants.","Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":7,"wallets":2,"sizedVolumeUsd":2.560359,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":60.942977137190525,"topThreeWalletSharePct":100,"multiPoolWallets":1}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["2b0efb1a425eade386740f41317cada3341522869a96e999e763c7344adbb112"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"payload":{"kind":"market","prices":{"0":2406,"1":2391,"2":2391,"3":2972},"defaultOption":"0","thresholdPct":0,"leader":"3","leaderMarginPct":23.524522028262677,"selectedByRule":"3","recordedSelection":"3","provisional":false}},{"id":"selection-rule","instrument":{"id":"selection-rule","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["2b0efb1a425eade386740f41317cada3341522869a96e999e763c7344adbb112"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics."],"payload":{"kind":"rule-observations","observations":[{"id":"tie-fails","headline":"A tie keeps the default","detail":"The threshold is zero and the selection rule is strict: a challenger's time-weighted price must strictly beat the default's, so a level print keeps the default."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch","evidenceIds":["2b0efb1a425eade386740f41317cada3341522869a96e999e763c7344adbb112"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"Combinator asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble","evidenceIds":["2b0efb1a425eade386740f41317cada3341522869a96e999e763c7344adbb112"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"late-window-outcome-steering","instrument":{"id":"late-window-outcome-steering","version":"3.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"this market selects among 4 options, and the late-window playbook reads one challenger's edge over the 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evidence"},{"id":"near-neutral-net","matched":false,"evidence":"no wallet ended near-neutral after high turnover net of arbitrage"},{"id":"arb-frequency-band","matched":false,"evidence":"no wallet traded inside the frequency band net of arbitrage pairs"},{"id":"stripped-tilt-shift","matched":false,"evidence":"tilt -0.22 → -0.22 (shift 0.00); 0 wallets showing wash evidence"}]}},{"id":"coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly","instrument":{"id":"coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly","version":"3.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"Combinator asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or 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default"},{"id":"6wc1d16cYbDQCMkjk4Ro5HKRBV4NAvGTQ1sTEcPu48YW","closedAt":"2026-04-20T23:46:51.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"ADMNYiZ7Qfn2B1CyWEGT3QnbNqicQbXSbXLSGqLEVkyf","closedAt":"2026-04-20T15:39:58.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected None"},{"id":"BMKvu43v7jXWK9PYfRHK3igqJNAn8ghSYXnui48Bg1zL","closedAt":"2026-04-17T07:42:19.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"5jm2Hp3zbsyszC7bidNNLvVfVdNWhp37UvVAibmUsMMo","closedAt":"2026-04-17T05:29:07.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AFSVLfBMoS1okaWQUmGegwCgTMCVvUxhHc57V1Bn1LAg","closedAt":"2026-03-22T00:58:25.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"2xCMbQajjPp3bHQQLFKFBnR9Hhu8LzBfGZNpmEbHiLZk","closedAt":"2026-03-20T21:50:52.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"6LMJoZELX8aVqTq4795fopmTBxJrKK6TDgvi3b2wkxE9","closedAt":"2026-03-20T15:58:01.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3SJJcwzBePBmbJsawxYmK4MLgB5iTP7Ay2jZcZLGHhHa","closedAt":"2026-03-20T14:47:59.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AokSNt9b5KJQmrWTU58ZmFgpQMAMb2YsGykxEH7hK7dA","closedAt":"2026-03-20T12:30:54.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"B91t5sa8bELGvCJXHqKoywkKdEaQ136iwMJ8LoWeMnVB","closedAt":"2026-03-19T14:31:26.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"HGVKyYNEoYKZimUqxvYnzyaPWSWah8XLb6PR5KQig79y","closedAt":"2026-03-19T12:05:15.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"CGBUwTdgGZYh4xExv1xw7JQCstBf2S8WRBzWXRkDy8yX","closedAt":"2026-03-12T00:27:37.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"9w18ZZEQtNSS74LHLCo1VBT77ekuSHhamwXNTMhte98G","closedAt":"2026-03-12T00:13:01.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected darryn"},{"id":"97XNK9U2wuByMANupATR4mSivtB3ZzYhpDXVzWB4yssR","closedAt":"2026-03-09T00:20:52.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"6gzjwFmxhznY5mYCBM1YadP8BN6BGZ2VNfHGXoEJgaNd","closedAt":"2026-03-07T01:22:20.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"J9F61XfRJX1Z2DxdcS711fJGaBZRKRryuuVFxmLHhKQb","closedAt":"2026-03-06T02:19:19.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"8by7Pm9Gw9n3aXDrHomZ2YZ9UeZo6FvWzQn5iHGYuzKQ","closedAt":"2026-03-06T02:07:04.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"GxwRhQdzL3C2e3bwfwfMeNDPDHzHLovDZaZ41aiPqrPF","closedAt":"2026-03-06T01:54:00.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3hqJQJU3AgWAaPyjyMm28RrjwhU5ERk7MzHW2KKdsmh6","closedAt":"2026-03-06T01:34:17.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"4usCaNvt7qhwbXzLBshqUVTGxhvCm6zpmh4C6c3CBhyJ","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:53:44.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected None"},{"id":"CQuSKmM7MnXCMQaMfZCWhpwtirNDziY33z4DJaG5qMEA","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:39:37.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3E5PtHbhwEx7Z3tnFWEKvCwfW3b1RJaiAqp3WgVvsK9F","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:12:32.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"FUNvTLm6ZSU7c2KmmuLGCjb4ZUtGvoE8huD2NifDjenT","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:45:31.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AgRoqjmUfPaTGELq2NJ16fwMQTt1wduNXHaRKfsdv9c8","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:28:11.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"9AaXpWC1wtKr7JLQqXgia9Qc9ZSShvMu2rpg4CbCRZg6","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:13:41.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"4LwbeVd7CqQxtUBdfrxjziyVejdqgVP6nohAhZzpucLr","closedAt":"2026-03-05T22:57:21.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"FGDhQdQqtYqrvXth92uRf7FeaCL11eYrbcweoGEPpgpH","closedAt":"2026-03-05T22:39:42.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"BoqbfZFeEwAzkcWaAhFWADG15YPv2D4EBEWoaGKAemEh","closedAt":"2026-03-05T22:15:57.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"ARCUCntRyCN1ikYpqhSDjXg4MNHE5LdL5HdojpEbJ9xC","closedAt":"2026-03-05T04:49:49.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"8bGo6aXBhL5k4DAmBotgjGJ1VrorFpm8vqdhixVrypDE","closedAt":"2026-03-05T03:57:59.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"2auJYi8S2k13EnmWDU5ZThj6xnKZGAq7ez2iLqBtUFiV","closedAt":"2026-03-05T02:09:24.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"81eymzN4eD3Ftqrp5mZNCsb6eWVy5BgS49P6mddP6GfB","closedAt":"2026-03-05T01:59:23.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"CwJmB75voWVpyJe3dCx39C2qFRN4ebswhhZ9N11p486W","closedAt":"2026-03-01T06:01:05.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AcsLSeaq68ZnsHawAdrK9u6ZzfE2DLmH6FQKXBpqBUMV","closedAt":"2026-02-27T04:32:18.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"Ezi1CMzFPSN95sd9QKi9S99DryCwYuMSgE3hneMwZVQf","closedAt":"2026-02-26T22:42:01.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"}]}},{"id":"measured-outcome","instrument":{"id":"measured-outcome","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.","evidenceIds":["2b0efb1a425eade386740f41317cada3341522869a96e999e763c7344adbb112"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null}],"interpretations":[{"id":"interpretation:market-selection","statement":"The recorded prices imply 3: the leading challenger's lead over the default is 23.52%, against a 0.00% threshold.","basis":"derivation","resultIds":["market-selection"],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"revisitWhen":["A correction to the final prices or governing rule."]}]},"execution":{"status":"withheld","reason":"No execution reading is published for this decision yet."},"outcome":{"status":"withheld","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},"impact":{"status":"recorded","forecast":{"selectedOptionId":"3","referenceOptionId":"0","reference":"default","selectedPrice":2972,"referencePrice":2406,"forecastPct":23.524522028262673,"basis":"Final option TWAPs from each option's pool oracle, in raw observation units.","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json"},"realised":[{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"1d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"7d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."}]},"capital":{"status":"withheld","reason":"The chain has not been read for what this decision moved yet."},"agents":[],"authorities":[{"role":"moderator","account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"}]},{"id":"combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-EesFnB4NEAeXLAi6PUDTiqyihwzyb54s5tCSd2AxLuGb","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-EesFnB4NEAeXLAi6PUDTiqyihwzyb54s5tCSd2AxLuGb/","engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"EesFnB4NEAeXLAi6PUDTiqyihwzyb54s5tCSd2AxLuGb","decider":{"account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"},"title":"Curation market #24: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","openedAt":"2026-04-29T17:23:03.000Z","closesAt":"2026-04-29T18:23:03.000Z","wallets":2,"counted":false,"form":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","options":[{"id":"0","label":"final test ($FWEFWEF) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/b9ec0ead-a884-4dd5-97b5-000b179f5c74","noOp":false},{"id":"1","label":"Smoke 1773875559082 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/uTcR4Vo1cUeKysG9gfLigxJyVoMqWwkHZrtCyZXTf6N","noOp":false},{"id":"2","label":"Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2","noOp":false},{"id":"3","label":"None","noOp":false}],"measure":{"kind":"token-value","metric":"time-weighted conditional token price over the window","thresholdPct":0},"selectedOptionIds":["0"]},"purpose":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json","title":"Curation market #24: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","text":["final test ($FWEFWEF) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/b9ec0ead-a884-4dd5-97b5-000b179f5c74","Smoke 1773875559082 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/uTcR4Vo1cUeKysG9gfLigxJyVoMqWwkHZrtCyZXTf6N","Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2","None"],"url":null},"knowledge":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/lane-findings.json","observedAt":"2026-10-13T04:47:50.441Z","rosterVersion":"3.0.0","readings":[{"name":"evidence","label":"Evidence","status":"filed"},{"name":"attack","label":"Attack","status":"filed"},{"name":"market","label":"Market","status":"filed"},{"name":"playbooks","label":"Playbooks","status":"standing"},{"name":"learning","label":"Learning","status":"standing"},{"name":"claims","label":"Claims","status":"standing"}]},"analysis":{"schemaVersion":1,"subject":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"EesFnB4NEAeXLAi6PUDTiqyihwzyb54s5tCSd2AxLuGb"},"evaluatedAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","cutoffAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","evidence":[{"id":"f1d80afe150ba0313a465cab54ae73a670f67fab9855256ab14c1fc02e13d2a4","source":"retained-input:f1d80afe150ba0313a465cab54ae73a670f67fab9855256ab14c1fc02e13d2a4","revision":"f1d80afe150ba0313a465cab54ae73a670f67fab9855256ab14c1fc02e13d2a4","digest":"f1d80afe150ba0313a465cab54ae73a670f67fab9855256ab14c1fc02e13d2a4","observedAt":null,"knownAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z"}],"results":[{"id":"disclosures","instrument":{"id":"disclosures","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["f1d80afe150ba0313a465cab54ae73a670f67fab9855256ab14c1fc02e13d2a4"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution."],"payload":{"kind":"disclosures","fields":[{"id":"decision-account","label":"Decision account","state":"present","note":"Confirmed onchain at the address shown."},{"id":"options","label":"Options","state":"present","note":"4 options: final test ($FWEFWEF) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/b9ec0ead-a884-4dd5-97b5-000b179f5c74; Smoke 1773875559082 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/uTcR4Vo1cUeKysG9gfLigxJyVoMqWwkHZrtCyZXTf6N; Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2; None."},{"id":"selection-rule","label":"Selection rule","state":"present","note":"The best challenger must beat the default by 0%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close times are on the record."},{"id":"question","label":"Question","state":"present","note":"The decision's question is on the record."},{"id":"moderator","label":"Moderator","state":"present","note":"Moderated by star-test-dao."}]}},{"id":"participation","instrument":{"id":"participation","version":"2.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["f1d80afe150ba0313a465cab54ae73a670f67fab9855256ab14c1fc02e13d2a4"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants.","Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":8,"wallets":2,"sizedVolumeUsd":5.001286,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":59.9846519475191,"topThreeWalletSharePct":100,"multiPoolWallets":1}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["f1d80afe150ba0313a465cab54ae73a670f67fab9855256ab14c1fc02e13d2a4"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"payload":{"kind":"market","prices":{"0":4536,"1":2444,"2":2444,"3":2482},"defaultOption":"0","thresholdPct":0,"leader":"3","leaderMarginPct":-45.282186948853614,"selectedByRule":"0","recordedSelection":"0","provisional":false}},{"id":"selection-rule","instrument":{"id":"selection-rule","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["f1d80afe150ba0313a465cab54ae73a670f67fab9855256ab14c1fc02e13d2a4"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics."],"payload":{"kind":"rule-observations","observations":[{"id":"tie-fails","headline":"A tie keeps the default","detail":"The threshold is zero and the selection rule is strict: a challenger's time-weighted price must strictly beat the default's, so a level print keeps the default."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch","evidenceIds":["f1d80afe150ba0313a465cab54ae73a670f67fab9855256ab14c1fc02e13d2a4"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"Combinator asks no stake of 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darryn"},{"id":"97XNK9U2wuByMANupATR4mSivtB3ZzYhpDXVzWB4yssR","closedAt":"2026-03-09T00:20:52.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"6gzjwFmxhznY5mYCBM1YadP8BN6BGZ2VNfHGXoEJgaNd","closedAt":"2026-03-07T01:22:20.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"J9F61XfRJX1Z2DxdcS711fJGaBZRKRryuuVFxmLHhKQb","closedAt":"2026-03-06T02:19:19.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"8by7Pm9Gw9n3aXDrHomZ2YZ9UeZo6FvWzQn5iHGYuzKQ","closedAt":"2026-03-06T02:07:04.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"GxwRhQdzL3C2e3bwfwfMeNDPDHzHLovDZaZ41aiPqrPF","closedAt":"2026-03-06T01:54:00.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3hqJQJU3AgWAaPyjyMm28RrjwhU5ERk7MzHW2KKdsmh6","closedAt":"2026-03-06T01:34:17.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"4usCaNvt7qhwbXzLBshqUVTGxhvCm6zpmh4C6c3CBhyJ","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:53:44.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected None"},{"id":"CQuSKmM7MnXCMQaMfZCWhpwtirNDziY33z4DJaG5qMEA","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:39:37.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3E5PtHbhwEx7Z3tnFWEKvCwfW3b1RJaiAqp3WgVvsK9F","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:12:32.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"FUNvTLm6ZSU7c2KmmuLGCjb4ZUtGvoE8huD2NifDjenT","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:45:31.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AgRoqjmUfPaTGELq2NJ16fwMQTt1wduNXHaRKfsdv9c8","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:28:11.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"9AaXpWC1wtKr7JLQqXgia9Qc9ZSShvMu2rpg4CbCRZg6","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:13:41.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the 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default"},{"id":"81eymzN4eD3Ftqrp5mZNCsb6eWVy5BgS49P6mddP6GfB","closedAt":"2026-03-05T01:59:23.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"CwJmB75voWVpyJe3dCx39C2qFRN4ebswhhZ9N11p486W","closedAt":"2026-03-01T06:01:05.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AcsLSeaq68ZnsHawAdrK9u6ZzfE2DLmH6FQKXBpqBUMV","closedAt":"2026-02-27T04:32:18.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"Ezi1CMzFPSN95sd9QKi9S99DryCwYuMSgE3hneMwZVQf","closedAt":"2026-02-26T22:42:01.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"}]}},{"id":"measured-outcome","instrument":{"id":"measured-outcome","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution 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It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},"impact":{"status":"recorded","forecast":{"selectedOptionId":"0","referenceOptionId":"3","reference":"runner-up","selectedPrice":4536,"referencePrice":2482,"forecastPct":82.75584206285254,"basis":"Final option TWAPs from each option's pool oracle, in raw observation units.","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json"},"realised":[{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"1d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"7d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."}]},"capital":{"status":"withheld","reason":"The chain has not been read for what this decision moved yet."},"agents":[],"authorities":[{"role":"moderator","account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"}]},{"id":"combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-3URnZbn5Fk6UZ4u7FttrvYXJWZc74xRfXLwcpkF6ufMH","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-3URnZbn5Fk6UZ4u7FttrvYXJWZc74xRfXLwcpkF6ufMH/","engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"3URnZbn5Fk6UZ4u7FttrvYXJWZc74xRfXLwcpkF6ufMH","decider":{"account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"},"title":"Curation market #25: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","openedAt":"2026-04-29T18:36:16.000Z","closesAt":"2026-04-29T19:06:16.000Z","wallets":1,"counted":false,"form":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","options":[{"id":"0","label":"Smoke 1773875559082 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/uTcR4Vo1cUeKysG9gfLigxJyVoMqWwkHZrtCyZXTf6N","noOp":false},{"id":"1","label":"Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2","noOp":false},{"id":"2","label":"None","noOp":false}],"measure":{"kind":"token-value","metric":"time-weighted conditional token price over the window","thresholdPct":0},"selectedOptionIds":["0"]},"purpose":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json","title":"Curation market #25: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","text":["Smoke 1773875559082 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/uTcR4Vo1cUeKysG9gfLigxJyVoMqWwkHZrtCyZXTf6N","Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2","None"],"url":null},"knowledge":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/lane-findings.json","observedAt":"2026-10-13T04:47:50.441Z","rosterVersion":"3.0.0","readings":[{"name":"evidence","label":"Evidence","status":"filed"},{"name":"attack","label":"Attack","status":"filed"},{"name":"market","label":"Market","status":"filed"},{"name":"playbooks","label":"Playbooks","status":"standing"},{"name":"learning","label":"Learning","status":"standing"},{"name":"claims","label":"Claims","status":"standing"}]},"analysis":{"schemaVersion":1,"subject":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"3URnZbn5Fk6UZ4u7FttrvYXJWZc74xRfXLwcpkF6ufMH"},"evaluatedAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","cutoffAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","evidence":[{"id":"5bb89f2d6c2599fc04fe9e9f9eeb26c95b83fcf6a6dd256a7e13e6fb3f4ac68d","source":"retained-input:5bb89f2d6c2599fc04fe9e9f9eeb26c95b83fcf6a6dd256a7e13e6fb3f4ac68d","revision":"5bb89f2d6c2599fc04fe9e9f9eeb26c95b83fcf6a6dd256a7e13e6fb3f4ac68d","digest":"5bb89f2d6c2599fc04fe9e9f9eeb26c95b83fcf6a6dd256a7e13e6fb3f4ac68d","observedAt":null,"knownAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z"}],"results":[{"id":"disclosures","instrument":{"id":"disclosures","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["5bb89f2d6c2599fc04fe9e9f9eeb26c95b83fcf6a6dd256a7e13e6fb3f4ac68d"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution."],"payload":{"kind":"disclosures","fields":[{"id":"decision-account","label":"Decision account","state":"present","note":"Confirmed onchain at the address shown."},{"id":"options","label":"Options","state":"present","note":"3 options: Smoke 1773875559082 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/uTcR4Vo1cUeKysG9gfLigxJyVoMqWwkHZrtCyZXTf6N; Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2; None."},{"id":"selection-rule","label":"Selection rule","state":"present","note":"The best challenger must beat the default by 0%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close times are on the record."},{"id":"question","label":"Question","state":"present","note":"The decision's question is on the record."},{"id":"moderator","label":"Moderator","state":"present","note":"Moderated by star-test-dao."}]}},{"id":"participation","instrument":{"id":"participation","version":"2.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["5bb89f2d6c2599fc04fe9e9f9eeb26c95b83fcf6a6dd256a7e13e6fb3f4ac68d"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants.","Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":6,"wallets":1,"sizedVolumeUsd":2.4161960000000002,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":100,"topThreeWalletSharePct":100,"multiPoolWallets":1}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["5bb89f2d6c2599fc04fe9e9f9eeb26c95b83fcf6a6dd256a7e13e6fb3f4ac68d"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"payload":{"kind":"market","prices":{"0":3380,"1":3216,"2":2444},"defaultOption":"0","thresholdPct":0,"leader":"1","leaderMarginPct":-4.85207100591716,"selectedByRule":"0","recordedSelection":"0","provisional":false}},{"id":"selection-rule","instrument":{"id":"selection-rule","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["5bb89f2d6c2599fc04fe9e9f9eeb26c95b83fcf6a6dd256a7e13e6fb3f4ac68d"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics."],"payload":{"kind":"rule-observations","observations":[{"id":"tie-fails","headline":"A tie keeps the default","detail":"The threshold is zero and the selection rule is strict: a challenger's time-weighted price must strictly beat the default's, so a level print keeps the default."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch","evidenceIds":["5bb89f2d6c2599fc04fe9e9f9eeb26c95b83fcf6a6dd256a7e13e6fb3f4ac68d"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"Combinator asks no stake of 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default"},{"id":"2xCMbQajjPp3bHQQLFKFBnR9Hhu8LzBfGZNpmEbHiLZk","closedAt":"2026-03-20T21:50:52.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"6LMJoZELX8aVqTq4795fopmTBxJrKK6TDgvi3b2wkxE9","closedAt":"2026-03-20T15:58:01.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3SJJcwzBePBmbJsawxYmK4MLgB5iTP7Ay2jZcZLGHhHa","closedAt":"2026-03-20T14:47:59.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AokSNt9b5KJQmrWTU58ZmFgpQMAMb2YsGykxEH7hK7dA","closedAt":"2026-03-20T12:30:54.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"B91t5sa8bELGvCJXHqKoywkKdEaQ136iwMJ8LoWeMnVB","closedAt":"2026-03-19T14:31:26.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"HGVKyYNEoYKZimUqxvYnzyaPWSWah8XLb6PR5KQig79y","closedAt":"2026-03-19T12:05:15.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"CGBUwTdgGZYh4xExv1xw7JQCstBf2S8WRBzWXRkDy8yX","closedAt":"2026-03-12T00:27:37.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"9w18ZZEQtNSS74LHLCo1VBT77ekuSHhamwXNTMhte98G","closedAt":"2026-03-12T00:13:01.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected darryn"},{"id":"97XNK9U2wuByMANupATR4mSivtB3ZzYhpDXVzWB4yssR","closedAt":"2026-03-09T00:20:52.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"6gzjwFmxhznY5mYCBM1YadP8BN6BGZ2VNfHGXoEJgaNd","closedAt":"2026-03-07T01:22:20.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"J9F61XfRJX1Z2DxdcS711fJGaBZRKRryuuVFxmLHhKQb","closedAt":"2026-03-06T02:19:19.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"8by7Pm9Gw9n3aXDrHomZ2YZ9UeZo6FvWzQn5iHGYuzKQ","closedAt":"2026-03-06T02:07:04.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"GxwRhQdzL3C2e3bwfwfMeNDPDHzHLovDZaZ41aiPqrPF","closedAt":"2026-03-06T01:54:00.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3hqJQJU3AgWAaPyjyMm28RrjwhU5ERk7MzHW2KKdsmh6","closedAt":"2026-03-06T01:34:17.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"4usCaNvt7qhwbXzLBshqUVTGxhvCm6zpmh4C6c3CBhyJ","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:53:44.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected None"},{"id":"CQuSKmM7MnXCMQaMfZCWhpwtirNDziY33z4DJaG5qMEA","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:39:37.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3E5PtHbhwEx7Z3tnFWEKvCwfW3b1RJaiAqp3WgVvsK9F","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:12:32.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"FUNvTLm6ZSU7c2KmmuLGCjb4ZUtGvoE8huD2NifDjenT","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:45:31.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AgRoqjmUfPaTGELq2NJ16fwMQTt1wduNXHaRKfsdv9c8","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:28:11.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"9AaXpWC1wtKr7JLQqXgia9Qc9ZSShvMu2rpg4CbCRZg6","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:13:41.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"4LwbeVd7CqQxtUBdfrxjziyVejdqgVP6nohAhZzpucLr","closedAt":"2026-03-05T22:57:21.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"FGDhQdQqtYqrvXth92uRf7FeaCL11eYrbcweoGEPpgpH","closedAt":"2026-03-05T22:39:42.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"BoqbfZFeEwAzkcWaAhFWADG15YPv2D4EBEWoaGKAemEh","closedAt":"2026-03-05T22:15:57.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"ARCUCntRyCN1ikYpqhSDjXg4MNHE5LdL5HdojpEbJ9xC","closedAt":"2026-03-05T04:49:49.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"8bGo6aXBhL5k4DAmBotgjGJ1VrorFpm8vqdhixVrypDE","closedAt":"2026-03-05T03:57:59.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"2auJYi8S2k13EnmWDU5ZThj6xnKZGAq7ez2iLqBtUFiV","closedAt":"2026-03-05T02:09:24.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"81eymzN4eD3Ftqrp5mZNCsb6eWVy5BgS49P6mddP6GfB","closedAt":"2026-03-05T01:59:23.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"CwJmB75voWVpyJe3dCx39C2qFRN4ebswhhZ9N11p486W","closedAt":"2026-03-01T06:01:05.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AcsLSeaq68ZnsHawAdrK9u6ZzfE2DLmH6FQKXBpqBUMV","closedAt":"2026-02-27T04:32:18.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"Ezi1CMzFPSN95sd9QKi9S99DryCwYuMSgE3hneMwZVQf","closedAt":"2026-02-26T22:42:01.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"}]}},{"id":"measured-outcome","instrument":{"id":"measured-outcome","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.","evidenceIds":["5bb89f2d6c2599fc04fe9e9f9eeb26c95b83fcf6a6dd256a7e13e6fb3f4ac68d"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null}],"interpretations":[{"id":"interpretation:market-selection","statement":"The recorded prices imply 0: the leading challenger's lead over the default is -4.85%, against a 0.00% threshold.","basis":"derivation","resultIds":["market-selection"],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"revisitWhen":["A correction to the final prices or governing rule."]}]},"execution":{"status":"withheld","reason":"No execution reading is published for this decision yet."},"outcome":{"status":"withheld","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},"impact":{"status":"recorded","forecast":{"selectedOptionId":"0","referenceOptionId":"1","reference":"runner-up","selectedPrice":3380,"referencePrice":3216,"forecastPct":5.099502487562191,"basis":"Final option TWAPs from each option's pool oracle, in raw observation units.","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json"},"realised":[{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"1d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"7d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."}]},"capital":{"status":"withheld","reason":"The chain has not been read for what this decision moved yet."},"agents":[],"authorities":[{"role":"moderator","account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"}]},{"id":"combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-mceEmzJoBATpxP8qBE3GaYwNrStnxvGyf2En9HFWksA","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-mceEmzJoBATpxP8qBE3GaYwNrStnxvGyf2En9HFWksA/","engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"mceEmzJoBATpxP8qBE3GaYwNrStnxvGyf2En9HFWksA","decider":{"account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"},"title":"Curation market #26: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","openedAt":"2026-04-29T21:28:34.000Z","closesAt":"2026-04-29T21:58:34.000Z","wallets":0,"counted":false,"form":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","options":[{"id":"0","label":"Smoke 1773875559082 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/uTcR4Vo1cUeKysG9gfLigxJyVoMqWwkHZrtCyZXTf6N","noOp":false},{"id":"1","label":"Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2","noOp":false},{"id":"2","label":"Smoke 1773873634809 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/153b86e7-2726-4a75-b171-4d24e0084ee8","noOp":false},{"id":"3","label":"None","noOp":false}],"measure":{"kind":"token-value","metric":"time-weighted conditional token price over the window","thresholdPct":0},"selectedOptionIds":["0"]},"purpose":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json","title":"Curation market #26: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","text":["Smoke 1773875559082 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/uTcR4Vo1cUeKysG9gfLigxJyVoMqWwkHZrtCyZXTf6N","Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2","Smoke 1773873634809 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/153b86e7-2726-4a75-b171-4d24e0084ee8","None"],"url":null},"knowledge":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/lane-findings.json","observedAt":"2026-10-13T04:47:50.441Z","rosterVersion":"3.0.0","readings":[{"name":"evidence","label":"Evidence","status":"withheld"},{"name":"attack","label":"Attack","status":"withheld"},{"name":"market","label":"Market","status":"filed"},{"name":"playbooks","label":"Playbooks","status":"standing"},{"name":"learning","label":"Learning","status":"standing"},{"name":"claims","label":"Claims","status":"standing"}]},"analysis":{"schemaVersion":1,"subject":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"mceEmzJoBATpxP8qBE3GaYwNrStnxvGyf2En9HFWksA"},"evaluatedAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","cutoffAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","evidence":[{"id":"3711329519852ad7bf5e2089d61ffd8789115a1d13289b50355f053b67042a9e","source":"retained-input:3711329519852ad7bf5e2089d61ffd8789115a1d13289b50355f053b67042a9e","revision":"3711329519852ad7bf5e2089d61ffd8789115a1d13289b50355f053b67042a9e","digest":"3711329519852ad7bf5e2089d61ffd8789115a1d13289b50355f053b67042a9e","observedAt":null,"knownAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z"}],"results":[{"id":"disclosures","instrument":{"id":"disclosures","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["3711329519852ad7bf5e2089d61ffd8789115a1d13289b50355f053b67042a9e"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution."],"payload":{"kind":"disclosures","fields":[{"id":"decision-account","label":"Decision account","state":"present","note":"Confirmed onchain at the address shown."},{"id":"options","label":"Options","state":"present","note":"4 options: Smoke 1773875559082 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/uTcR4Vo1cUeKysG9gfLigxJyVoMqWwkHZrtCyZXTf6N; Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2; Smoke 1773873634809 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/153b86e7-2726-4a75-b171-4d24e0084ee8; None."},{"id":"selection-rule","label":"Selection rule","state":"present","note":"The best challenger must beat the default by 0%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close times are on the record."},{"id":"question","label":"Question","state":"present","note":"The decision's question is on the record."},{"id":"moderator","label":"Moderator","state":"present","note":"Moderated by star-test-dao."}]}},{"id":"participation","instrument":{"id":"participation","version":"2.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["3711329519852ad7bf5e2089d61ffd8789115a1d13289b50355f053b67042a9e"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants.","Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":0,"wallets":0,"sizedVolumeUsd":0,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":null,"topThreeWalletSharePct":null,"multiPoolWallets":0}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["3711329519852ad7bf5e2089d61ffd8789115a1d13289b50355f053b67042a9e"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"payload":{"kind":"market","prices":{"0":2444,"1":2444,"2":2444,"3":2444},"defaultOption":"0","thresholdPct":0,"leader":"1","leaderMarginPct":0,"selectedByRule":"0","recordedSelection":"0","provisional":false}},{"id":"selection-rule","instrument":{"id":"selection-rule","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["3711329519852ad7bf5e2089d61ffd8789115a1d13289b50355f053b67042a9e"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics."],"payload":{"kind":"rule-observations","observations":[{"id":"tie-fails","headline":"A tie keeps the default","detail":"The threshold is zero and the selection rule is strict: a challenger's time-weighted price must strictly beat the default's, so a level print keeps the default."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch","evidenceIds":["3711329519852ad7bf5e2089d61ffd8789115a1d13289b50355f053b67042a9e"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"Combinator asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble","evidenceIds":["3711329519852ad7bf5e2089d61ffd8789115a1d13289b50355f053b67042a9e"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"late-window-outcome-steering","instrument":{"id":"late-window-outcome-steering","version":"3.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"this market selects among 4 options, and the late-window playbook reads one challenger's edge over the default","evidenceIds":["3711329519852ad7bf5e2089d61ffd8789115a1d13289b50355f053b67042a9e"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"wash-volume-alignment-inflation","instrument":{"id":"wash-volume-alignment-inflation","version":"4.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"no value-moving trade was 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estimate of decision quality."],"payload":{"kind":"history","cutoffAt":"2026-04-29T21:28:34.000Z","decisions":[{"id":"3URnZbn5Fk6UZ4u7FttrvYXJWZc74xRfXLwcpkF6ufMH","closedAt":"2026-04-29T19:06:16.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"EesFnB4NEAeXLAi6PUDTiqyihwzyb54s5tCSd2AxLuGb","closedAt":"2026-04-29T18:23:03.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"FnQ116a7JLVdgKFtePYgqENWm9qYnY5yvoEdm8XAEf36","closedAt":"2026-04-29T17:11:44.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected None"},{"id":"7WBia71dEneMjsQfG6ZFEqUN4e8QHSQZzU2ipkYkBnxn","closedAt":"2026-04-29T15:16:30.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"EhP8BuLk3Cc6ghhKrX9xBZBv6YSFYrLE6pLfMHzWERwi","closedAt":"2026-04-28T19:08:34.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"E4YU2tg9DSZu3uxq2zzsTeCEAjgMNC2KxoHQPoniSgQv","closedAt":"2026-04-28T14:51:26.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"BNdchaHiVxa14ZorY8djDqbswSR3Li3q3ZgvxMNP5chj","closedAt":"2026-04-28T11:29:56.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"7JwoX6m4w5UFW3mT3EECfTZuxMvYWWezmWzmkzF4sjeV","closedAt":"2026-04-27T17:30:16.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"6qy7Au1TwCUTw7TyAxuwq7GJ1Gsg521r5ZxQ5649NyoE","closedAt":"2026-04-27T17:16:40.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"ABNqZSdgqfUvnhbEgeN8j1ueqm3eacXSyXtHHmCTJQqk","closedAt":"2026-04-27T15:57:26.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"Ajf4B7QcDgn4fEcMeisSkcXACYDtb4f8dvgMf8n9iSj","closedAt":"2026-04-27T15:38:07.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"5Nzz9ZLhxiyFVC9PcQZWTcQdBVWr63ZBhmkzczfKBgfW","closedAt":"2026-04-21T14:24:07.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"6wc1d16cYbDQCMkjk4Ro5HKRBV4NAvGTQ1sTEcPu48YW","closedAt":"2026-04-20T23:46:51.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"ADMNYiZ7Qfn2B1CyWEGT3QnbNqicQbXSbXLSGqLEVkyf","closedAt":"2026-04-20T15:39:58.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected None"},{"id":"BMKvu43v7jXWK9PYfRHK3igqJNAn8ghSYXnui48Bg1zL","closedAt":"2026-04-17T07:42:19.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"5jm2Hp3zbsyszC7bidNNLvVfVdNWhp37UvVAibmUsMMo","closedAt":"2026-04-17T05:29:07.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AFSVLfBMoS1okaWQUmGegwCgTMCVvUxhHc57V1Bn1LAg","closedAt":"2026-03-22T00:58:25.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"2xCMbQajjPp3bHQQLFKFBnR9Hhu8LzBfGZNpmEbHiLZk","closedAt":"2026-03-20T21:50:52.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"6LMJoZELX8aVqTq4795fopmTBxJrKK6TDgvi3b2wkxE9","closedAt":"2026-03-20T15:58:01.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3SJJcwzBePBmbJsawxYmK4MLgB5iTP7Ay2jZcZLGHhHa","closedAt":"2026-03-20T14:47:59.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AokSNt9b5KJQmrWTU58ZmFgpQMAMb2YsGykxEH7hK7dA","closedAt":"2026-03-20T12:30:54.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"B91t5sa8bELGvCJXHqKoywkKdEaQ136iwMJ8LoWeMnVB","closedAt":"2026-03-19T14:31:26.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"HGVKyYNEoYKZimUqxvYnzyaPWSWah8XLb6PR5KQig79y","closedAt":"2026-03-19T12:05:15.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"CGBUwTdgGZYh4xExv1xw7JQCstBf2S8WRBzWXRkDy8yX","closedAt":"2026-03-12T00:27:37.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"9w18ZZEQtNSS74LHLCo1VBT77ekuSHhamwXNTMhte98G","closedAt":"2026-03-12T00:13:01.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected darryn"},{"id":"97XNK9U2wuByMANupATR4mSivtB3ZzYhpDXVzWB4yssR","closedAt":"2026-03-09T00:20:52.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"6gzjwFmxhznY5mYCBM1YadP8BN6BGZ2VNfHGXoEJgaNd","closedAt":"2026-03-07T01:22:20.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"J9F61XfRJX1Z2DxdcS711fJGaBZRKRryuuVFxmLHhKQb","closedAt":"2026-03-06T02:19:19.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"8by7Pm9Gw9n3aXDrHomZ2YZ9UeZo6FvWzQn5iHGYuzKQ","closedAt":"2026-03-06T02:07:04.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"GxwRhQdzL3C2e3bwfwfMeNDPDHzHLovDZaZ41aiPqrPF","closedAt":"2026-03-06T01:54:00.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3hqJQJU3AgWAaPyjyMm28RrjwhU5ERk7MzHW2KKdsmh6","closedAt":"2026-03-06T01:34:17.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"4usCaNvt7qhwbXzLBshqUVTGxhvCm6zpmh4C6c3CBhyJ","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:53:44.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected None"},{"id":"CQuSKmM7MnXCMQaMfZCWhpwtirNDziY33z4DJaG5qMEA","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:39:37.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3E5PtHbhwEx7Z3tnFWEKvCwfW3b1RJaiAqp3WgVvsK9F","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:12:32.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"FUNvTLm6ZSU7c2KmmuLGCjb4ZUtGvoE8huD2NifDjenT","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:45:31.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AgRoqjmUfPaTGELq2NJ16fwMQTt1wduNXHaRKfsdv9c8","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:28:11.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"9AaXpWC1wtKr7JLQqXgia9Qc9ZSShvMu2rpg4CbCRZg6","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:13:41.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"4LwbeVd7CqQxtUBdfrxjziyVejdqgVP6nohAhZzpucLr","closedAt":"2026-03-05T22:57:21.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"FGDhQdQqtYqrvXth92uRf7FeaCL11eYrbcweoGEPpgpH","closedAt":"2026-03-05T22:39:42.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | 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default"},{"id":"AcsLSeaq68ZnsHawAdrK9u6ZzfE2DLmH6FQKXBpqBUMV","closedAt":"2026-02-27T04:32:18.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"Ezi1CMzFPSN95sd9QKi9S99DryCwYuMSgE3hneMwZVQf","closedAt":"2026-02-26T22:42:01.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"}]}},{"id":"measured-outcome","instrument":{"id":"measured-outcome","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.","evidenceIds":["3711329519852ad7bf5e2089d61ffd8789115a1d13289b50355f053b67042a9e"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null}],"interpretations":[{"id":"interpretation:market-selection","statement":"The recorded prices imply 0: the leading challenger's lead over the default is 0.00%, against a 0.00% threshold.","basis":"derivation","resultIds":["market-selection"],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"revisitWhen":["A correction to the final prices or governing rule."]}]},"execution":{"status":"withheld","reason":"No execution reading is published for this decision yet."},"outcome":{"status":"withheld","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},"impact":{"status":"recorded","forecast":{"selectedOptionId":"0","referenceOptionId":"1","reference":"runner-up","selectedPrice":2444,"referencePrice":2444,"forecastPct":0,"basis":"Final option TWAPs from each option's pool oracle, in raw observation units.","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json"},"realised":[{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"1d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"7d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."}]},"capital":{"status":"withheld","reason":"The chain has not been read for what this decision moved yet."},"agents":[],"authorities":[{"role":"moderator","account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"}]},{"id":"combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-2hJtG5DRAqrUKWcoUJNEvjJ4meKFWLyTX5CYBsxT5Pxy","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-2hJtG5DRAqrUKWcoUJNEvjJ4meKFWLyTX5CYBsxT5Pxy/","engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"2hJtG5DRAqrUKWcoUJNEvjJ4meKFWLyTX5CYBsxT5Pxy","decider":{"account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"},"title":"Curation market #27: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","openedAt":"2026-04-29T23:40:53.000Z","closesAt":"2026-04-30T00:10:53.000Z","wallets":2,"counted":false,"form":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","options":[{"id":"0","label":"Smoke 1774018698420 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/GmqwoU2r4nzoM4U6aSRnhwCFjvHSC58iFhexB2P4dDLA","noOp":false},{"id":"1","label":"Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2","noOp":false},{"id":"2","label":"Smoke 1773873634809 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/153b86e7-2726-4a75-b171-4d24e0084ee8","noOp":false},{"id":"3","label":"None","noOp":false}],"measure":{"kind":"token-value","metric":"time-weighted conditional token price over the window","thresholdPct":0},"selectedOptionIds":["1"]},"purpose":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json","title":"Curation market #27: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","text":["Smoke 1774018698420 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/GmqwoU2r4nzoM4U6aSRnhwCFjvHSC58iFhexB2P4dDLA","Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2","Smoke 1773873634809 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/153b86e7-2726-4a75-b171-4d24e0084ee8","None"],"url":null},"knowledge":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/lane-findings.json","observedAt":"2026-10-13T04:47:50.441Z","rosterVersion":"3.0.0","readings":[{"name":"evidence","label":"Evidence","status":"filed"},{"name":"attack","label":"Attack","status":"filed"},{"name":"market","label":"Market","status":"filed"},{"name":"playbooks","label":"Playbooks","status":"standing"},{"name":"learning","label":"Learning","status":"standing"},{"name":"claims","label":"Claims","status":"standing"}]},"analysis":{"schemaVersion":1,"subject":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"2hJtG5DRAqrUKWcoUJNEvjJ4meKFWLyTX5CYBsxT5Pxy"},"evaluatedAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","cutoffAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","evidence":[{"id":"078f69a7700f74d871df175c22c7f5e0fe3904331519c70f4552d34571371a14","source":"retained-input:078f69a7700f74d871df175c22c7f5e0fe3904331519c70f4552d34571371a14","revision":"078f69a7700f74d871df175c22c7f5e0fe3904331519c70f4552d34571371a14","digest":"078f69a7700f74d871df175c22c7f5e0fe3904331519c70f4552d34571371a14","observedAt":null,"knownAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z"}],"results":[{"id":"disclosures","instrument":{"id":"disclosures","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["078f69a7700f74d871df175c22c7f5e0fe3904331519c70f4552d34571371a14"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution."],"payload":{"kind":"disclosures","fields":[{"id":"decision-account","label":"Decision account","state":"present","note":"Confirmed onchain at the address shown."},{"id":"options","label":"Options","state":"present","note":"4 options: Smoke 1774018698420 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/GmqwoU2r4nzoM4U6aSRnhwCFjvHSC58iFhexB2P4dDLA; Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2; Smoke 1773873634809 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/153b86e7-2726-4a75-b171-4d24e0084ee8; None."},{"id":"selection-rule","label":"Selection rule","state":"present","note":"The best challenger must beat the default by 0%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close times are on the record."},{"id":"question","label":"Question","state":"present","note":"The decision's question is on the record."},{"id":"moderator","label":"Moderator","state":"present","note":"Moderated by star-test-dao."}]}},{"id":"participation","instrument":{"id":"participation","version":"2.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["078f69a7700f74d871df175c22c7f5e0fe3904331519c70f4552d34571371a14"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants.","Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":17,"wallets":2,"sizedVolumeUsd":36.059252,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":93.83192696287765,"topThreeWalletSharePct":100,"multiPoolWallets":1}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["078f69a7700f74d871df175c22c7f5e0fe3904331519c70f4552d34571371a14"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"payload":{"kind":"market","prices":{"0":2661,"1":3013,"2":2661,"3":2660},"defaultOption":"0","thresholdPct":0,"leader":"1","leaderMarginPct":13.228109733183013,"selectedByRule":"1","recordedSelection":"1","provisional":false}},{"id":"selection-rule","instrument":{"id":"selection-rule","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["078f69a7700f74d871df175c22c7f5e0fe3904331519c70f4552d34571371a14"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics."],"payload":{"kind":"rule-observations","observations":[{"id":"tie-fails","headline":"A tie keeps the default","detail":"The threshold is zero and the selection rule is strict: a challenger's time-weighted price must strictly beat the default's, so a level print keeps the default."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch","evidenceIds":["078f69a7700f74d871df175c22c7f5e0fe3904331519c70f4552d34571371a14"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"Combinator asks no stake of 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https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"8by7Pm9Gw9n3aXDrHomZ2YZ9UeZo6FvWzQn5iHGYuzKQ","closedAt":"2026-03-06T02:07:04.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"GxwRhQdzL3C2e3bwfwfMeNDPDHzHLovDZaZ41aiPqrPF","closedAt":"2026-03-06T01:54:00.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3hqJQJU3AgWAaPyjyMm28RrjwhU5ERk7MzHW2KKdsmh6","closedAt":"2026-03-06T01:34:17.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"4usCaNvt7qhwbXzLBshqUVTGxhvCm6zpmh4C6c3CBhyJ","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:53:44.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected None"},{"id":"CQuSKmM7MnXCMQaMfZCWhpwtirNDziY33z4DJaG5qMEA","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:39:37.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3E5PtHbhwEx7Z3tnFWEKvCwfW3b1RJaiAqp3WgVvsK9F","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:12:32.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the 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default"},{"id":"ARCUCntRyCN1ikYpqhSDjXg4MNHE5LdL5HdojpEbJ9xC","closedAt":"2026-03-05T04:49:49.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"8bGo6aXBhL5k4DAmBotgjGJ1VrorFpm8vqdhixVrypDE","closedAt":"2026-03-05T03:57:59.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"2auJYi8S2k13EnmWDU5ZThj6xnKZGAq7ez2iLqBtUFiV","closedAt":"2026-03-05T02:09:24.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"81eymzN4eD3Ftqrp5mZNCsb6eWVy5BgS49P6mddP6GfB","closedAt":"2026-03-05T01:59:23.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"CwJmB75voWVpyJe3dCx39C2qFRN4ebswhhZ9N11p486W","closedAt":"2026-03-01T06:01:05.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AcsLSeaq68ZnsHawAdrK9u6ZzfE2DLmH6FQKXBpqBUMV","closedAt":"2026-02-27T04:32:18.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"Ezi1CMzFPSN95sd9QKi9S99DryCwYuMSgE3hneMwZVQf","closedAt":"2026-02-26T22:42:01.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"}]}},{"id":"measured-outcome","instrument":{"id":"measured-outcome","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.","evidenceIds":["078f69a7700f74d871df175c22c7f5e0fe3904331519c70f4552d34571371a14"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null}],"interpretations":[{"id":"interpretation:market-selection","statement":"The recorded prices imply 1: the leading challenger's lead over the default is 13.23%, against a 0.00% threshold.","basis":"derivation","resultIds":["market-selection"],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"revisitWhen":["A correction to the final prices or governing rule."]}]},"execution":{"status":"withheld","reason":"No execution reading is published for this decision yet."},"outcome":{"status":"withheld","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},"impact":{"status":"recorded","forecast":{"selectedOptionId":"1","referenceOptionId":"0","reference":"default","selectedPrice":3013,"referencePrice":2661,"forecastPct":13.228109733183025,"basis":"Final option TWAPs from each option's pool oracle, in raw observation units.","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json"},"realised":[{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"1d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"7d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."}]},"capital":{"status":"withheld","reason":"The chain has not been read for what this decision moved yet."},"agents":[],"authorities":[{"role":"moderator","account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"}]},{"id":"combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-BqVeCJWqs4SrAr5r37P5XuoHoiSMixH2b85aziRpJ3a2","iri":"https://eidos.software/decisions/combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-BqVeCJWqs4SrAr5r37P5XuoHoiSMixH2b85aziRpJ3a2/","engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"BqVeCJWqs4SrAr5r37P5XuoHoiSMixH2b85aziRpJ3a2","decider":{"account":"71xPeF35X7kqy88y6KVb9ZtbwvpgF5FFMU2GwV3Vjaxa","name":"star-test-dao"},"title":"Curation market: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","openedAt":"2026-04-30T03:51:32.000Z","closesAt":"2026-04-30T04:21:32.000Z","wallets":0,"counted":false,"form":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","options":[{"id":"0","label":"Smoke 1774018698420 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/GmqwoU2r4nzoM4U6aSRnhwCFjvHSC58iFhexB2P4dDLA","noOp":false},{"id":"1","label":"Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2","noOp":false},{"id":"2","label":"Smoke 1773873634809 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/153b86e7-2726-4a75-b171-4d24e0084ee8","noOp":false},{"id":"3","label":"None","noOp":false}],"measure":{"kind":"token-value","metric":"time-weighted conditional token price over the window","thresholdPct":0},"selectedOptionIds":["0"]},"purpose":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json","title":"Curation market: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.","text":["Smoke 1774018698420 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/GmqwoU2r4nzoM4U6aSRnhwCFjvHSC58iFhexB2P4dDLA","Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2","Smoke 1773873634809 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/153b86e7-2726-4a75-b171-4d24e0084ee8","None"],"url":null},"knowledge":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/lane-findings.json","observedAt":"2026-10-13T04:47:50.441Z","rosterVersion":"3.0.0","readings":[{"name":"evidence","label":"Evidence","status":"withheld"},{"name":"attack","label":"Attack","status":"withheld"},{"name":"market","label":"Market","status":"filed"},{"name":"playbooks","label":"Playbooks","status":"standing"},{"name":"learning","label":"Learning","status":"standing"},{"name":"claims","label":"Claims","status":"standing"}]},"analysis":{"schemaVersion":1,"subject":{"engine":"combinator","chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","decisionId":"BqVeCJWqs4SrAr5r37P5XuoHoiSMixH2b85aziRpJ3a2"},"evaluatedAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","cutoffAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z","evidence":[{"id":"b2831dcdd53c021e3385b443abc3a067b3602a78cd4dd4b5aafe7cb93778a49f","source":"retained-input:b2831dcdd53c021e3385b443abc3a067b3602a78cd4dd4b5aafe7cb93778a49f","revision":"b2831dcdd53c021e3385b443abc3a067b3602a78cd4dd4b5aafe7cb93778a49f","digest":"b2831dcdd53c021e3385b443abc3a067b3602a78cd4dd4b5aafe7cb93778a49f","observedAt":null,"knownAt":"2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z"}],"results":[{"id":"disclosures","instrument":{"id":"disclosures","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["b2831dcdd53c021e3385b443abc3a067b3602a78cd4dd4b5aafe7cb93778a49f"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution."],"payload":{"kind":"disclosures","fields":[{"id":"decision-account","label":"Decision account","state":"present","note":"Confirmed onchain at the address shown."},{"id":"options","label":"Options","state":"present","note":"4 options: Smoke 1774018698420 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/GmqwoU2r4nzoM4U6aSRnhwCFjvHSC58iFhexB2P4dDLA; Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2; Smoke 1773873634809 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/153b86e7-2726-4a75-b171-4d24e0084ee8; None."},{"id":"selection-rule","label":"Selection rule","state":"present","note":"The best challenger must beat the default by 0%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close times are on the record."},{"id":"question","label":"Question","state":"present","note":"The decision's question is on the record."},{"id":"moderator","label":"Moderator","state":"present","note":"Moderated by star-test-dao."}]}},{"id":"participation","instrument":{"id":"participation","version":"2.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["b2831dcdd53c021e3385b443abc3a067b3602a78cd4dd4b5aafe7cb93778a49f"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants.","Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":0,"wallets":0,"sizedVolumeUsd":0,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":null,"topThreeWalletSharePct":null,"multiPoolWallets":0}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["b2831dcdd53c021e3385b443abc3a067b3602a78cd4dd4b5aafe7cb93778a49f"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"payload":{"kind":"market","prices":{"0":2596,"1":2596,"2":2596,"3":2596},"defaultOption":"0","thresholdPct":0,"leader":"1","leaderMarginPct":0,"selectedByRule":"0","recordedSelection":"0","provisional":false}},{"id":"selection-rule","instrument":{"id":"selection-rule","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["b2831dcdd53c021e3385b443abc3a067b3602a78cd4dd4b5aafe7cb93778a49f"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics."],"payload":{"kind":"rule-observations","observations":[{"id":"tie-fails","headline":"A tie keeps the default","detail":"The threshold is zero and the selection rule is strict: a challenger's time-weighted price must strictly beat the default's, so a level print keeps the default."}]}},{"id":"closing-window","instrument":{"id":"closing-window","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch","evidenceIds":["b2831dcdd53c021e3385b443abc3a067b3602a78cd4dd4b5aafe7cb93778a49f"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","instrument":{"id":"recycled-stake-treasury-extraction","version":"1.0.2"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"Combinator asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble","evidenceIds":["b2831dcdd53c021e3385b443abc3a067b3602a78cd4dd4b5aafe7cb93778a49f"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"late-window-outcome-steering","instrument":{"id":"late-window-outcome-steering","version":"3.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"this market selects among 4 options, and the late-window playbook reads one challenger's edge over the default","evidenceIds":["b2831dcdd53c021e3385b443abc3a067b3602a78cd4dd4b5aafe7cb93778a49f"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"wash-volume-alignment-inflation","instrument":{"id":"wash-volume-alignment-inflation","version":"4.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"no value-moving trade was recorded","evidenceIds":["b2831dcdd53c021e3385b443abc3a067b3602a78cd4dd4b5aafe7cb93778a49f"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly","instrument":{"id":"coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly","version":"3.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"Combinator asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble","evidenceIds":["b2831dcdd53c021e3385b443abc3a067b3602a78cd4dd4b5aafe7cb93778a49f"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"prior-decisions","instrument":{"id":"prior-decisions","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["b2831dcdd53c021e3385b443abc3a067b3602a78cd4dd4b5aafe7cb93778a49f"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Prior selections are historical context, not an estimate of decision quality."],"payload":{"kind":"history","cutoffAt":"2026-04-30T03:51:32.000Z","decisions":[{"id":"2hJtG5DRAqrUKWcoUJNEvjJ4meKFWLyTX5CYBsxT5Pxy","closedAt":"2026-04-30T00:10:53.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected Smoke 1773873669779 ($SMOKE) | https://staging.star.fun/projects/a88c26a5-4427-4b70-9adc-aa26f11fadc2"},{"id":"mceEmzJoBATpxP8qBE3GaYwNrStnxvGyf2En9HFWksA","closedAt":"2026-04-29T21:58:34.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3URnZbn5Fk6UZ4u7FttrvYXJWZc74xRfXLwcpkF6ufMH","closedAt":"2026-04-29T19:06:16.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"EesFnB4NEAeXLAi6PUDTiqyihwzyb54s5tCSd2AxLuGb","closedAt":"2026-04-29T18:23:03.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"FnQ116a7JLVdgKFtePYgqENWm9qYnY5yvoEdm8XAEf36","closedAt":"2026-04-29T17:11:44.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected None"},{"id":"7WBia71dEneMjsQfG6ZFEqUN4e8QHSQZzU2ipkYkBnxn","closedAt":"2026-04-29T15:16:30.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"EhP8BuLk3Cc6ghhKrX9xBZBv6YSFYrLE6pLfMHzWERwi","closedAt":"2026-04-28T19:08:34.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"E4YU2tg9DSZu3uxq2zzsTeCEAjgMNC2KxoHQPoniSgQv","closedAt":"2026-04-28T14:51:26.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"BNdchaHiVxa14ZorY8djDqbswSR3Li3q3ZgvxMNP5chj","closedAt":"2026-04-28T11:29:56.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"7JwoX6m4w5UFW3mT3EECfTZuxMvYWWezmWzmkzF4sjeV","closedAt":"2026-04-27T17:30:16.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"6qy7Au1TwCUTw7TyAxuwq7GJ1Gsg521r5ZxQ5649NyoE","closedAt":"2026-04-27T17:16:40.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"ABNqZSdgqfUvnhbEgeN8j1ueqm3eacXSyXtHHmCTJQqk","closedAt":"2026-04-27T15:57:26.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"Ajf4B7QcDgn4fEcMeisSkcXACYDtb4f8dvgMf8n9iSj","closedAt":"2026-04-27T15:38:07.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"5Nzz9ZLhxiyFVC9PcQZWTcQdBVWr63ZBhmkzczfKBgfW","closedAt":"2026-04-21T14:24:07.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"6wc1d16cYbDQCMkjk4Ro5HKRBV4NAvGTQ1sTEcPu48YW","closedAt":"2026-04-20T23:46:51.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"ADMNYiZ7Qfn2B1CyWEGT3QnbNqicQbXSbXLSGqLEVkyf","closedAt":"2026-04-20T15:39:58.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected None"},{"id":"BMKvu43v7jXWK9PYfRHK3igqJNAn8ghSYXnui48Bg1zL","closedAt":"2026-04-17T07:42:19.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"5jm2Hp3zbsyszC7bidNNLvVfVdNWhp37UvVAibmUsMMo","closedAt":"2026-04-17T05:29:07.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AFSVLfBMoS1okaWQUmGegwCgTMCVvUxhHc57V1Bn1LAg","closedAt":"2026-03-22T00:58:25.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"2xCMbQajjPp3bHQQLFKFBnR9Hhu8LzBfGZNpmEbHiLZk","closedAt":"2026-03-20T21:50:52.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"6LMJoZELX8aVqTq4795fopmTBxJrKK6TDgvi3b2wkxE9","closedAt":"2026-03-20T15:58:01.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3SJJcwzBePBmbJsawxYmK4MLgB5iTP7Ay2jZcZLGHhHa","closedAt":"2026-03-20T14:47:59.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AokSNt9b5KJQmrWTU58ZmFgpQMAMb2YsGykxEH7hK7dA","closedAt":"2026-03-20T12:30:54.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"B91t5sa8bELGvCJXHqKoywkKdEaQ136iwMJ8LoWeMnVB","closedAt":"2026-03-19T14:31:26.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"HGVKyYNEoYKZimUqxvYnzyaPWSWah8XLb6PR5KQig79y","closedAt":"2026-03-19T12:05:15.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"CGBUwTdgGZYh4xExv1xw7JQCstBf2S8WRBzWXRkDy8yX","closedAt":"2026-03-12T00:27:37.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"9w18ZZEQtNSS74LHLCo1VBT77ekuSHhamwXNTMhte98G","closedAt":"2026-03-12T00:13:01.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected darryn"},{"id":"97XNK9U2wuByMANupATR4mSivtB3ZzYhpDXVzWB4yssR","closedAt":"2026-03-09T00:20:52.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"6gzjwFmxhznY5mYCBM1YadP8BN6BGZ2VNfHGXoEJgaNd","closedAt":"2026-03-07T01:22:20.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"J9F61XfRJX1Z2DxdcS711fJGaBZRKRryuuVFxmLHhKQb","closedAt":"2026-03-06T02:19:19.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"8by7Pm9Gw9n3aXDrHomZ2YZ9UeZo6FvWzQn5iHGYuzKQ","closedAt":"2026-03-06T02:07:04.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"GxwRhQdzL3C2e3bwfwfMeNDPDHzHLovDZaZ41aiPqrPF","closedAt":"2026-03-06T01:54:00.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3hqJQJU3AgWAaPyjyMm28RrjwhU5ERk7MzHW2KKdsmh6","closedAt":"2026-03-06T01:34:17.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"4usCaNvt7qhwbXzLBshqUVTGxhvCm6zpmh4C6c3CBhyJ","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:53:44.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected None"},{"id":"CQuSKmM7MnXCMQaMfZCWhpwtirNDziY33z4DJaG5qMEA","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:39:37.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"3E5PtHbhwEx7Z3tnFWEKvCwfW3b1RJaiAqp3WgVvsK9F","closedAt":"2026-03-06T00:12:32.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"FUNvTLm6ZSU7c2KmmuLGCjb4ZUtGvoE8huD2NifDjenT","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:45:31.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AgRoqjmUfPaTGELq2NJ16fwMQTt1wduNXHaRKfsdv9c8","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:28:11.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"9AaXpWC1wtKr7JLQqXgia9Qc9ZSShvMu2rpg4CbCRZg6","closedAt":"2026-03-05T23:13:41.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"4LwbeVd7CqQxtUBdfrxjziyVejdqgVP6nohAhZzpucLr","closedAt":"2026-03-05T22:57:21.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"FGDhQdQqtYqrvXth92uRf7FeaCL11eYrbcweoGEPpgpH","closedAt":"2026-03-05T22:39:42.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"BoqbfZFeEwAzkcWaAhFWADG15YPv2D4EBEWoaGKAemEh","closedAt":"2026-03-05T22:15:57.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"ARCUCntRyCN1ikYpqhSDjXg4MNHE5LdL5HdojpEbJ9xC","closedAt":"2026-03-05T04:49:49.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"8bGo6aXBhL5k4DAmBotgjGJ1VrorFpm8vqdhixVrypDE","closedAt":"2026-03-05T03:57:59.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"2auJYi8S2k13EnmWDU5ZThj6xnKZGAq7ez2iLqBtUFiV","closedAt":"2026-03-05T02:09:24.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"81eymzN4eD3Ftqrp5mZNCsb6eWVy5BgS49P6mddP6GfB","closedAt":"2026-03-05T01:59:23.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"CwJmB75voWVpyJe3dCx39C2qFRN4ebswhhZ9N11p486W","closedAt":"2026-03-01T06:01:05.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"AcsLSeaq68ZnsHawAdrK9u6ZzfE2DLmH6FQKXBpqBUMV","closedAt":"2026-02-27T04:32:18.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"Ezi1CMzFPSN95sd9QKi9S99DryCwYuMSgE3hneMwZVQf","closedAt":"2026-02-26T22:42:01.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"}]}},{"id":"measured-outcome","instrument":{"id":"measured-outcome","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"This instrument reads 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It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},"impact":{"status":"recorded","forecast":{"selectedOptionId":"0","referenceOptionId":"1","reference":"runner-up","selectedPrice":2596,"referencePrice":2596,"forecastPct":0,"basis":"Final option TWAPs from each option's pool oracle, in raw observation units.","source":"/data/combinator-decisions.json"},"realised":[{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"1d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"7d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero."},{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"30d","reason":"No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. 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a no-match does not establish safety."],"payload":{"kind":"detector","vectorId":"wash-volume-alignment-inflation","classification":"NO-MATCH","matched":0,"evaluated":5,"indicators":[{"id":"paired-branch-executions","matched":false,"evidence":"7 wallets traded more than one option's market after netting arbitrage; none round-tripped the minimum turnover"},{"id":"fixed-size-cluster","matched":false,"evidence":"no fixed-size cadence cluster from a wallet showing wash evidence"},{"id":"near-neutral-net","matched":false,"evidence":"no wallet ended near-neutral after high turnover net of arbitrage"},{"id":"arb-frequency-band","matched":false,"evidence":"no wallet traded inside the frequency band net of arbitrage pairs"},{"id":"stripped-tilt-shift","matched":false,"evidence":"tilt 0.06 → 0.06 (shift 0.00); 0 wallets showing wash evidence"}]}},{"id":"coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly","instrument":{"id":"coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly","version":"3.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"Combinator asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble","evidenceIds":["943d26ddcd8167c685947d94302f78b3f637b57ba4d8ac0f9c9a3f56faa0b59d"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null},{"id":"prior-decisions","instrument":{"id":"prior-decisions","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["943d26ddcd8167c685947d94302f78b3f637b57ba4d8ac0f9c9a3f56faa0b59d"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Prior selections are historical context, not an estimate of decision quality."],"payload":{"kind":"history","cutoffAt":"2026-04-30T21:02:08.000Z","decisions":[{"id":"6EXs2NLwZSx74bt2pp5c438YuVipmTTN8eUH3a4Ur9Z4","closedAt":"2026-04-30T20:10:05.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected None"},{"id":"G4av9b1TsdNXAbB24WT2xVxmiFuVj6NZbn8GWVp4bYzg","closedAt":"2026-04-30T19:05:56.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected Ryan Claw ($RYAN) | https://star.fun/projects/969de297-be93-40ce-bac1-6fcae85b44f3"},{"id":"GDnmhL9uRVuCkpN8ThUL9ZrMPynYTBCn77hbJSh1wW8Y","closedAt":"2026-04-30T17:35:53.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"6bBE7PKQMAs4QPbHLgn6QiMYWeZoicj3KCPZKvsLexvT","closedAt":"2026-04-30T14:48:43.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected star-1 ($STAR1) | https://star.fun/projects/45b29f61-7342-4ce2-ac6e-6744d2f94fe7"},{"id":"DbVPjQCmsJQFktebCuWxuikdfSrTBW4CnH4CL99Tu46u","closedAt":"2026-04-30T05:32:57.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"GEZ975S1LoTjxKsPccxHNtLULmGCjiv8j9y1kqGtiugT","closedAt":"2026-03-13T21:01:20.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected YES"},{"id":"ETvmvoqgyWnBrVe2T9fQAHs3Ft5q8UUxwkG51jvZQS2p","closedAt":"2026-03-10T02:53:52.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected None"},{"id":"464PNDwcfdsHzjN7czDwXmfPf62C7q3bfvdCRKzmAFwR","closedAt":"2026-01-30T15:58:58.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected Yes"}]}},{"id":"measured-outcome","instrument":{"id":"measured-outcome","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.","evidenceIds":["943d26ddcd8167c685947d94302f78b3f637b57ba4d8ac0f9c9a3f56faa0b59d"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null}],"interpretations":[{"id":"interpretation:market-selection","statement":"The recorded prices imply 0: the leading challenger's lead over the default is -3.08%, against a 0.00% threshold.","basis":"derivation","resultIds":["market-selection"],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"revisitWhen":["A correction to the final prices or governing rule."]}]},"execution":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/engine-execution.json","state":"not-checked","at":null,"evidence":[],"note":"The proposal commits to no on-chain action the record can check."},"outcome":{"status":"recorded","kind":"token-value","measure":"token price","unit":"USD","closedAt":"2026-04-30T22:12:08.000Z","series":{"lane":{"chain":"solana-mainnet-beta","marketKind":"token-spot","marketId":"StargWr5r6r8gZSjmEKGZ1dmvKWkj79r2z1xqjFstar","series":"price-usd"},"since":"2026-04-30T22:12:08.000Z","path":null},"checkpoints":[{"status":"withheld","checkpoint":"close","target":"2026-04-30T22:12:08.000Z","reason":"The price lane for this token begins 2026-10-02T14:30:15.553Z, after this checkpoint; 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eBombo ($EB) | https://star.fun/projects/f95bc626-0140-4ce9-8670-cd97ecd6886b; Elon Susk ($SUSK) | https://star.fun/projects/bffe2c80-d05f-4be3-aeb2-5e51f279811a; None."},{"id":"selection-rule","label":"Selection rule","state":"present","note":"The best challenger must beat the default by 0%."},{"id":"window-timing","label":"Window timing","state":"present","note":"Open and close times are on the record."},{"id":"question","label":"Question","state":"present","note":"The decision's question is on the record."},{"id":"moderator","label":"Moderator","state":"present","note":"Moderated by star."}]}},{"id":"participation","instrument":{"id":"participation","version":"2.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["3b7556e4cfb2e9137f8804924cec1ad2ff358a7f4febb0a0dea876b0ea4f1034"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants.","Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only."],"payload":{"kind":"participation","trades":0,"wallets":0,"sizedVolumeUsd":0,"unsizedTrades":0,"largestWalletSharePct":null,"topThreeWalletSharePct":null,"multiPoolWallets":0}},{"id":"market-selection","instrument":{"id":"market-selection","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["3b7556e4cfb2e9137f8804924cec1ad2ff358a7f4febb0a0dea876b0ea4f1034"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact."],"payload":{"kind":"market","prices":{"0":1266101,"1":1266101,"2":1266101,"3":1266101},"defaultOption":"0","thresholdPct":0,"leader":"1","leaderMarginPct":0,"selectedByRule":"0","recordedSelection":"0","provisional":false}},{"id":"selection-rule","instrument":{"id":"selection-rule","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"applicable","availability":"available","completeness":"complete","freshness":"historical","reason":"","evidenceIds":["3b7556e4cfb2e9137f8804924cec1ad2ff358a7f4febb0a0dea876b0ea4f1034"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":["Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. 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default"},{"id":"0xfaff531b1ff214c7cb82b23fb5147f675b8346ba","closedAt":"2026-01-02T00:00:40.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"0xa28614aa999117c555757d56a8178f271c24d7ba","closedAt":"2025-11-28T10:45:25.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected Pass"},{"id":"0x3f124fa6b58ee61d1162175a578c588db9689ef0","closedAt":"2025-11-01T03:30:25.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected Pass"},{"id":"0xedfbc72500414c7914664845c800454529e3d4bb","closedAt":"2025-10-27T00:02:00.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"0x7d96a3f714782710917f6045441b39483c5dc60a","closedAt":"2025-10-27T00:02:00.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"0xd210212a5550b782bcfadf3453d360a983aa01d7","closedAt":"2025-10-27T00:02:00.000Z","outcome":"default","result":"kept the default"},{"id":"0xa80641bf70483a3524713a396dee0ebd642ceaea","closedAt":"2025-09-12T17:12:20.000Z","outcome":"challenger","result":"selected 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default"}]}},{"id":"measured-outcome","instrument":{"id":"measured-outcome","version":"1.0.0"},"applicability":"not-applicable","availability":"unavailable","completeness":"unknown","freshness":"historical","reason":"This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.","evidenceIds":["a712b33a115c8e8a12bf54673b2ad4ac74add32f2326a9aebb69337ab64378cc"],"assumptions":[],"limitations":[],"payload":null}],"interpretations":[]},"execution":{"status":"recorded","source":"/data/engine-execution.json","state":"no-op-selected","at":null,"evidence":[],"note":"Fail was selected: there is nothing to carry out."},"outcome":{"status":"withheld","reason":"The decision has no recorded close, so there is nothing to measure from."},"impact":{"status":"withheld","reason":"The decoded record carries no closing pass and fail prices, so there is no forecast to set beside the outcome."},"capital":{"status":"withheld","reason":"The chain has not been read for what this decision moved 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