{
  "status": "registered",
  "registrations": [
    {
      "id": "decision-market-organizations-2027",
      "revision": 2,
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-29T11:45:06.683Z",
      "revisionSha256": "5082ac3d4ab2a3d0f41f63b787e6aa9ef3c7e73db0fabada736fa00204bae1de",
      "version": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "decision-market-repeat-engines-2027",
      "revision": 1,
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-29T11:45:06.683Z",
      "revisionSha256": "40950cb79a76c9f728650a4724662984df4ea8d6abba93f664ca2432cc62c3c4",
      "version": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "decision-market-median-traders-2027h2",
      "revision": 1,
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-29T11:45:06.683Z",
      "revisionSha256": "6a5cd7d83258c6c1072db99d43d4855d2626b51b3e8b38a28ebd947457b35943",
      "version": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "market-vs-committee-comparison-2028",
      "revision": 1,
      "publishedAt": "2026-09-29T11:45:06.683Z",
      "revisionSha256": "e623048670ba2478cd84d7290bb7cbcf4bbbc01f9a91a06d1be38f34074e929e",
      "version": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "eidos-paid-organization-2027h1",
      "revision": 1,
      "publishedAt": "2026-10-02T17:01:28.767Z",
      "revisionSha256": "03cbba7b1b0793891493b908130d85b6c47c3036d42644167bb1095d1441bda6",
      "version": 1
    }
  ],
  "revisionsSha256": "9cade120ba1d5d0dde0975d302c19271076e2ab8b4ac5af8f660b1452c596ba0",
  "probabilityBasis": "Initial subjective research judgments, not fitted or calibrated probabilities. The cited sources do not supply these probabilities.",
  "scoring": "Score each exact released revision with (probability - binary outcome)^2, lower better; 0.25 is the 50% neutral reference, not an estimated base rate. Show unresolved and resolved counts separately. Never select only correct forecasts. Do not combine these different targets into a thesis success score.",
  "revisions": [
    {
      "id": "decision-market-organizations-2027",
      "revision": 2,
      "proposedAt": "2026-09-29",
      "evidenceCutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "layer": "Adoption",
      "question": "By the end of 2027, will at least 60 distinct organizations, across at least three decision market engines, have had a real-money decision market decide or select one of their own actions?",
      "probability": 0.45,
      "eventDeadline": "2027-12-31",
      "resolutionDeadline": "2028-03-31",
      "rationale": "Initial research judgment: close to even. On September 29, 2026 at least 25 organizations qualify on four engines: 19 on MetaDAO, 4 on Combinator, 1 on Butter and 1 on Umia. A Markov model of MetaDAO adoption alone puts it near 45 by the end of 2027 (p10 36, p90 57). Combinator’s launchpad could add roughly 4 to 11 more, and Butter and Umia a few. The central estimate lands near 60, which is the pace at which the market-governed organizations the company’s own case needs (about 500 by 2030) would be reached from today. The threshold was set by that case, not to make the forecast safe.",
      "resolution": "Count distinct organizations for which a public primary record (program or contract accounts, the organization’s own governance forum or blog, or the engine operator’s published records) shows at least one qualifying market resolved on or before December 31, 2027. A qualifying market traded real money and its result decided or selected an action of the organization (a proposal, treasury action, grant, allocation or selection). Exclude advisory markets whose result the organization is free to ignore, play-money contests, prediction markets on events the organization does not decide, and test organizations that never drew five distinct wallets to a market. An engine is an independent market mechanism (MetaDAO, Combinator, Butter and Umia on September 29, 2026); launchpads and apps on an engine’s rails, such as Futardio on MetaDAO or Star on Combinator, count toward that engine. Count each organization once. Resolve yes at 60 or more organizations across three or more engines; resolve no below that only after recording the audit of every engine known by the resolution deadline. Eidos’s own record may locate candidates but cannot be the sole evidence for any organization.",
      "missingEvidence": "An inaccessible engine record, an unaudited engine or an organization whose decision link cannot be established is left out and noted; a no requires the recorded audit, and an incomplete audit means unresolved.",
      "limitation": "Tests adoption breadth, the condition the company’s scale depends on. It does not show that markets decide better than committees, that adoption persists, or that any organization pays for a record.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Eidos program reading, September 22, 2026",
          "url": "https://eidos.software/thesis/",
          "observed": "Nineteen organizations drew at least five wallets to a window on the MetaDAO Futarchy program; median window 15 wallets, 8 among windows opened since July 2026."
        },
        {
          "title": "01Resolved, Decision Market Research Report: February 2026",
          "url": "https://01resolved.com/research/01resolved-decision-market-research-report-febuary/",
          "observed": "FairScale redeemed its treasury through a multi-option Combinator market with $912.6K of reported volume."
        },
        {
          "title": "Uniswap Foundation, Unichain conditional funding markets",
          "url": "https://www.uniswapfoundation.org/conditional-funding-markets",
          "observed": "A real-money USDC conditional funding market tied to grant allocation; the announced second round had not been shown as completed on September 29, 2026."
        },
        {
          "title": "Umia, decision markets documentation",
          "url": "https://www.umia.finance/docs/decision-markets",
          "observed": "Multi-outcome conditional markets with a No-Op alternative, TWAP selection thresholds and on-chain execution."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "decision-market-repeat-engines-2027",
      "revision": 1,
      "proposedAt": "2026-09-29",
      "evidenceCutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "layer": "Repeat use",
      "question": "By the end of 2027, will at least three different decision market engines each have an organization that has resolved two or more real-money decision markets on its own actions?",
      "probability": 0.6,
      "eventDeadline": "2027-12-31",
      "resolutionDeadline": "2028-03-31",
      "rationale": "Initial research judgment: more likely than not. MetaDAO already qualifies (12 of its 19 organizations have run at least two proposals) and Combinator very likely does, since Star selects startups by market repeatedly. A third engine must come from Umia, which is live with binding multi-option markets, or from a second Butter allocation; the Uniswap Foundation’s announced second round had not been shown as completed after fourteen months.",
      "resolution": "For each engine, look for one organization with two or more qualifying markets resolved on or before December 31, 2027, each shown by a public primary record. A qualifying market traded real money and its result decided or selected an action of the organization (a proposal, treasury action, grant, allocation or selection). Exclude advisory markets whose result the organization is free to ignore, play-money contests, prediction markets on events the organization does not decide, and test organizations that never drew five distinct wallets to a market. An engine is an independent market mechanism (MetaDAO, Combinator, Butter and Umia on September 29, 2026); launchpads and apps on an engine’s rails, such as Futardio on MetaDAO or Star on Combinator, count toward that engine. Two markets from one proposal or one grant round count once; distinct decisions count separately. Resolve yes when three or more engines each have such an organization; resolve no only after recording the audit of every engine known by the resolution deadline.",
      "missingEvidence": "An engine whose records cannot be read is noted and not counted; a no requires the recorded audit of every known engine.",
      "limitation": "Tests whether organizations come back to decision markets beyond a single engine. It does not measure how many do, how often, or whether their decisions improved.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Eidos program reading, September 22, 2026",
          "url": "https://eidos.software/thesis/",
          "observed": "Nineteen organizations drew at least five wallets to a window on the MetaDAO Futarchy program; median window 15 wallets, 8 among windows opened since July 2026."
        },
        {
          "title": "01Resolved, Decision Market Research Report: February 2026",
          "url": "https://01resolved.com/research/01resolved-decision-market-research-report-febuary/",
          "observed": "FairScale redeemed its treasury through a multi-option Combinator market with $912.6K of reported volume."
        },
        {
          "title": "Uniswap Foundation, Unichain conditional funding markets",
          "url": "https://www.uniswapfoundation.org/conditional-funding-markets",
          "observed": "A real-money USDC conditional funding market tied to grant allocation; the announced second round had not been shown as completed on September 29, 2026."
        },
        {
          "title": "Umia, decision markets documentation",
          "url": "https://www.umia.finance/docs/decision-markets",
          "observed": "Multi-outcome conditional markets with a No-Op alternative, TWAP selection thresholds and on-chain execution."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "decision-market-median-traders-2027h2",
      "revision": 1,
      "proposedAt": "2026-09-29",
      "evidenceCutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "layer": "Depth",
      "question": "Across every decision market engine, will the median real-money decision market resolved in the second half of 2027 have drawn at least 15 distinct trading wallets?",
      "probability": 0.2,
      "eventDeadline": "2027-12-31",
      "resolutionDeadline": "2028-03-31",
      "rationale": "Initial research judgment: unlikely. MetaDAO holds most decision markets and its median window fell from 16 wallets in late 2025 to 13.5 in the first half of 2026 and 8 among windows opened since July 2026, while the number of proposals rose. Single high-stakes markets can draw a crowd, as FairScale’s did, but the median counts many small ones. Fifteen is the Thesis’s own line: it fails if windows keep drawing around fifteen wallets.",
      "resolution": "Take every qualifying market resolved from July 1 to December 31, 2027 on every known engine, count the distinct wallets that traded in each from the chain or the engine’s published trade record, and take the median across all of them, one value per market. A qualifying market traded real money and its result decided or selected an action of the organization (a proposal, treasury action, grant, allocation or selection). Exclude advisory markets whose result the organization is free to ignore, play-money contests, prediction markets on events the organization does not decide, and test organizations that never drew five distinct wallets to a market. An engine is an independent market mechanism (MetaDAO, Combinator, Butter and Umia on September 29, 2026); launchpads and apps on an engine’s rails, such as Futardio on MetaDAO or Star on Combinator, count toward that engine. Resolve yes at a median of 15 or more, no below 15. The count must be reproducible from public data by anyone; Eidos’s own replay may be used only where the underlying trades are public.",
      "missingEvidence": "If the markets whose wallet counts cannot be read make up more than a fifth of the qualifying markets in the period, resolve unresolved rather than guessing their counts.",
      "limitation": "Tests participation per decision, not the quality of that participation, the capital at stake, or whether more wallets means more independent information.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Eidos program reading, September 22, 2026",
          "url": "https://eidos.software/thesis/",
          "observed": "Nineteen organizations drew at least five wallets to a window on the MetaDAO Futarchy program; median window 15 wallets, 8 among windows opened since July 2026."
        },
        {
          "title": "01Resolved, Decision Market Research Report: February 2026",
          "url": "https://01resolved.com/research/01resolved-decision-market-research-report-febuary/",
          "observed": "FairScale redeemed its treasury through a multi-option Combinator market with $912.6K of reported volume."
        },
        {
          "title": "Uniswap Foundation, Unichain conditional funding markets",
          "url": "https://www.uniswapfoundation.org/conditional-funding-markets",
          "observed": "A real-money USDC conditional funding market tied to grant allocation; the announced second round had not been shown as completed on September 29, 2026."
        },
        {
          "title": "Umia, decision markets documentation",
          "url": "https://www.umia.finance/docs/decision-markets",
          "observed": "Multi-outcome conditional markets with a No-Op alternative, TWAP selection thresholds and on-chain execution."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "market-vs-committee-comparison-2028",
      "revision": 1,
      "proposedAt": "2026-09-29",
      "evidenceCutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "layer": "Decision quality",
      "question": "By the end of 2028, will any organization or researcher publish a real-money, fair comparison showing how decisions selected by a decision market performed against decisions selected by a committee or vote on the same candidates?",
      "probability": 0.25,
      "eventDeadline": "2028-12-31",
      "resolutionDeadline": "2029-03-31",
      "rationale": "Initial research judgment: unlikely but plausible. The only head-to-head comparison to date, Optimism’s 2025 contest, used play money, and GnosisDAO’s pilot is advisory. Butter’s funding markets, which predict a measured outcome and then observe it, are the likeliest source of a real-money comparison, but none has been announced.",
      "resolution": "Resolve yes when a publication dated on or before December 31, 2028 reports the realized outcomes of candidates selected by a real-money decision market alongside the realized outcomes of candidates selected by a committee, council or vote from the same pool, on a measure stated before the outcomes were known. The comparison need not favour markets; any result qualifies if the design is fair. Exclude play-money markets, simulations, retrospective re-scoring of past votes without a market, and comparisons whose measure was chosen after the outcomes. Eidos’s own publications may qualify only if the underlying data is public and reproducible.",
      "missingEvidence": "A claimed comparison without published outcomes or method is noted and not counted; no qualifying publication by the deadline resolves no.",
      "limitation": "Tests whether the evidence the Thesis most needs gets produced, not which way it points.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Optimism Collective, Futarchy v1 preliminary findings",
          "url": "https://gov.optimism.io/t/futarchy-v1-preliminary-findings/10062",
          "observed": "Markets and the Grants Council each picked projects from the same candidates, using play money."
        },
        {
          "title": "Uniswap Foundation, Unichain conditional funding markets",
          "url": "https://www.uniswapfoundation.org/conditional-funding-markets",
          "observed": "Real-money funding markets conditioned on a measured outcome; no committee comparison published."
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "eidos-paid-organization-2027h1",
      "revision": 1,
      "proposedAt": "2026-10-02",
      "evidenceCutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "layer": "Demand",
      "question": "By June 30, 2027, will at least one organization that decides by market have paid Eidos for a review of its own decisions, with the payment confirmed by a record the organization controls?",
      "probability": 0.3,
      "eventDeadline": "2027-06-30",
      "resolutionDeadline": "2027-09-30",
      "rationale": "Initial research judgment: less likely than not. On October 2, 2026 no organization has been asked to pay: outreach was deferred until the record was ready, the first reviewed window is offered at no charge, and the stop rule allows three reviewed windows before the organization service is reconsidered, so a first payment needs an ask, a free window and a decision to pay inside nine months. Against that, the buyers can pay: MetaDAO organizations operate on monthly allowances (P2P’s is $175,000) from which service providers are paid without a proposal, and larger DAOs already buy outside review by governance vote (Aave renewed LlamaRisk in 2026 at about $3M a year plus tokens). The question tests whether anyone pays for the record, which no other registered forecast does; Pro subscriptions and agent reads are excluded because they cannot be checked from outside.",
      "resolution": "Resolve yes when, for at least one organization that had a real-money decision market decide or select one of its actions on or before June 30, 2027, a record the organization controls (an on-chain payment from an account it controls, a governance proposal, or a post on its own forum or blog) shows a payment to Eidos for a review, pre-window review, memo or standing review service made after October 2, 2026 and on or before June 30, 2027. The fee disclosure Capital requires on Eidos’s record may locate the payment but cannot be the sole evidence. Exclude payments in Eidos’s own token or from Eidos, its fund or anyone acting for them; Pro subscriptions; metered agent reads; grants and bounties not tied to a review; and work given at no charge. Resolve no only after recording the audit of every organization Eidos reviewed and of Eidos’s published fee disclosures by the resolution deadline.",
      "missingEvidence": "A payment the organization’s own records do not show, or an incomplete audit, leaves the question unresolved; Eidos’s word alone never resolves it yes, and the absence of a disclosure is not a no until the audit is recorded.",
      "limitation": "Tests whether one organization pays for the record, the first step of the revenue case. It does not show repeat payment, the price level, enough revenue to sustain the company, or demand from funds, traders or agents.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Eidos, Capital (the revenue model, the fee disclosure control and the stop rule), October 2, 2026",
          "url": "https://eidos.software/capital/",
          "observed": "The standing review is paid from the organization’s operating allowance; the first window is provided at no charge; fees are disclosed on the client’s record; three reviewed windows without a paid engagement trigger the stop rule."
        },
        {
          "title": "01Resolved, Ownership Coin Monthly: July 2026",
          "url": "https://01resolved.com/research/",
          "observed": "P2P’s DAO pays the operating business a $175,000 monthly allowance; spending above an allowance requires a decision market proposal."
        },
        {
          "title": "Aave governance, [ARFC] Renew LlamaRisk as Risk Service Provider, epoch 4",
          "url": "https://governance.aave.com/t/arfc-renew-llamarisk-as-risk-service-provider-epoch-4/24446",
          "observed": "Proposed April 14, 2026 at $3.5M a year; revised May 4, 2026 to $1.5M GHO upfront, $1.5M GHO streamed over 12 months and 5,000 AAVE streamed over 12 months."
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "resolutions": [],
  "withdrawn": [
    {
      "withdrawnAt": "2026-09-29",
      "reason": "Measured fundraising reported by one platform, not deciding; the program data makes it an easy yes.",
      "revision": {
        "id": "metadao-reported-company-count-2027",
        "revision": 1,
        "proposedAt": "2026-09-10",
        "evidenceCutoff": "2026-09-10",
        "layer": "Financing adoption",
        "question": "Will MetaDAO’s last captured founders-page tally in the final week of 2027 report at least 30 companies that have raised?",
        "probability": 0.65,
        "eventDeadline": "2027-12-31",
        "resolutionDeadline": "2028-01-31",
        "rationale": "Initial research judgment: moderately more likely than not. The founder page currently reports 22 companies. Eight more over roughly sixteen months is plausible, but this review has not established a launch rate, survival rate or historical forecast base rate. The probability is an explicit starting judgment, not a fitted estimate.",
        "resolution": "Use the last archived or contemporaneously saved copy of the official founders page dated December 25–31, 2027 UTC. Resolve yes when its explicit cumulative count of companies that have raised is at least 30, no when a comparable explicit count is below 30. Read the claim as reported by the platform; do not substitute a token roster, successful survivors or proposal count. Evidence must be obtained by January 31, 2028.",
        "missingEvidence": "No qualifying capture, removed count, ambiguous scope or changed definition means unresolved; absence of a number is never zero.",
        "limitation": "Tests a platform-reported financing claim. It does not establish recurring governance, company survival, capital efficiency or independent verification of the count.",
        "sources": [
          {
            "title": "MetaDAO founder letter, retrieved September 10, 2026",
            "url": "https://metadao.fi/founders",
            "observed": "Page dated August 12 now reports 22 companies and $45M+ raised. The September 9 research artifact retained 21; the publication date does not date the current count."
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "withdrawnAt": "2026-09-29",
      "reason": "Tested one organization; repeat use across engines replaces it.",
      "revision": {
        "id": "uniswap-repeat-cfm-2027",
        "revision": 1,
        "proposedAt": "2026-09-10",
        "evidenceCutoff": "2026-09-10",
        "layer": "Repeated allocation",
        "question": "Will the Uniswap Foundation document at least two additional CFM grant-allocation rounds completed after September 10, 2026 and by the end of 2027?",
        "probability": 0.4,
        "eventDeadline": "2027-12-31",
        "resolutionDeadline": "2028-03-31",
        "rationale": "Initial research judgment: plausible but less likely than not under this strict documentation test. The 2025 pilot established one allocation and stated an intention to continue. Insider influence and forecasting complexity remain obstacles. An intention is not a delivery schedule or a measured continuation rate.",
        "resolution": "Audit all posts in the official Uniswap Foundation blog dated through March 31, 2028, including their linked primary grant records. Count distinct rounds only when the Foundation funded them, an announced conditional-market comparison selected a grant recipient, and a primary record states the grant was awarded after September 10, 2026 and on or before December 31, 2027. Different recipients in one round count once. Exclude ordinary grants, advisory-only markets, the July 2025 pilot, announcements without awards and rounds funded solely by other organizations. Resolve yes at two qualifying rounds; resolve no below two only after recording a complete archive/index audit.",
        "missingEvidence": "An inaccessible or incomplete blog archive, conflicting award dates or an unreviewed index means unresolved. This target measures public documentation in a named corpus, not all private activity.",
        "limitation": "Repeat use is a necessary test of this particular adoption path, not proof that CFMs outperform committees or that AI caused adoption.",
        "sources": [
          {
            "title": "Uniswap Foundation CFM retrospective",
            "url": "https://www.uniswapfoundation.org/blog/unichain-cfm-pilot-case-study",
            "observed": "The Foundation describes a July 2025 grant allocation, participation and design difficulties, and plans further experiments. Retrieved September 10, 2026."
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "withdrawnAt": "2026-09-29",
      "reason": "Superseded by revision 2: 100 organizations was close to unreachable on the evidence, and 60 is the pace the company’s case requires.",
      "revision": {
        "id": "decision-market-organizations-2027",
        "revision": 1,
        "proposedAt": "2026-09-28",
        "evidenceCutoff": "2026-09-28",
        "layer": "Cross-venue adoption",
        "question": "By the end of 2027, will at least 100 distinct organizations, across at least three separate decision market programs, have resolved a real-money decision market on one of their own decisions?",
        "probability": 0.25,
        "eventDeadline": "2027-12-31",
        "resolutionDeadline": "2028-03-31",
        "rationale": "Initial research judgment: less likely than not. A sourced count on September 28, 2026 finds at least 22 organizations across four programs, one of which used play money; 19 of them are on MetaDAO. Reaching 100 in fifteen months needs roughly a fourfold increase and real adoption beyond one venue. MetaDAO’s open launchpad adds rounds quickly but few reach their target. The probability is an explicit starting judgment, not a fitted estimate.",
        "resolution": "Count distinct organizations for which a public primary record (program accounts, the organization’s own governance forum or blog, or the program operator’s published records) shows at least one decision market that traded real money, was tied to a decision of that organization (a proposal, grant, allocation or treasury action), and resolved on or before December 31, 2027. Count each organization once. The organizations must span at least three programs, where a program is a distinct market mechanism or operator. Exclude play-money and paper markets, prediction markets on events the organization does not decide, fundraising sales with no subsequent decision market, and test organizations that never drew five distinct wallets to a market. Eidos’s own record may locate candidates but cannot be the sole evidence for any organization. Resolve yes at 100 or more organizations across three or more programs; resolve no below that only after recording the audit of every program known by the resolution deadline.",
        "missingEvidence": "An inaccessible program record, an unaudited program or an organization whose decision link cannot be established is left out of the count and noted; a no requires the recorded audit, and an incomplete audit means unresolved.",
        "limitation": "Tests adoption breadth, the condition the company’s scale depends on. It does not show that markets decide better than committees, that adoption persists, or that any organization pays for a record.",
        "sources": [
          {
            "title": "Eidos program reading, September 22, 2026",
            "url": "https://eidos.software/thesis/",
            "observed": "Nineteen organizations drew at least five wallets to a window on the MetaDAO Futarchy program; nine test organizations excluded."
          },
          {
            "title": "Uniswap Foundation CFM retrospective",
            "url": "https://www.uniswapfoundation.org/blog/unichain-cfm-pilot-case-study",
            "observed": "One real-money conditional funding market allocation in July 2025. Retrieved September 28, 2026."
          },
          {
            "title": "GnosisDAO Governance Summary, February 2026",
            "url": "https://gnosisdao.ghost.io/gnosisdao-governance-summary-february-2026/",
            "observed": "A nine-month advisory futarchy pilot beside GnosisDAO votes. Retrieved September 28, 2026."
          },
          {
            "title": "Optimism Futarchy v1 preliminary findings",
            "url": "https://gov.optimism.io/t/futarchy-v1-preliminary-findings/10062",
            "observed": "A 2025 play-money comparison against the Grants Council; excluded by this question’s real-money rule. Retrieved September 28, 2026."
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "withdrawnAt": "2026-09-29",
      "reason": "A neutral 50% judgment cannot show skill, resolves in 2032, and cannot speak to decision markets.",
      "revision": {
        "id": "iea-datacentre-demand-2030",
        "revision": 1,
        "proposedAt": "2026-09-10",
        "evidenceCutoff": "2026-09-10",
        "layer": "Physical buildout",
        "question": "Will the IEA estimate global data-centre electricity consumption in calendar 2030 at 950 TWh or more?",
        "probability": 0.5,
        "eventDeadline": "2030-12-31",
        "resolutionDeadline": "2032-12-31",
        "rationale": "Initial neutral judgment around the IEA’s current central projection. The IEA is not assigning a 50% probability: this report does so as a transparent starting forecast. Bottlenecks could constrain growth; demand and capacity expansion could exceed expectations. No error distribution has been estimated, so this is not a calibrated percentile.",
        "resolution": "Use the latest IEA publication released by December 31, 2032 that explicitly gives a retrospective estimate for global data-centre electricity consumed during calendar 2030. Include AI and non-AI data centres, using TWh per year. An explicit point estimate of at least 950 resolves yes; a lower point estimate resolves no. A published range wholly above or below the threshold can resolve; a straddling range cannot. Do not use an earlier forecast, installed power capacity, AI-only electricity or a global-total electricity figure. Freeze this evidence vintage for the original score even if later estimates change.",
        "missingEvidence": "No comparable retrospective IEA estimate by the resolution deadline means unresolved. A source forecast is not an observed outcome.",
        "limitation": "Tests physical electricity demand, including non-AI computing. It cannot resolve claims about investment returns, intelligence, decision-market use or demand for investing tools.",
        "sources": [
          {
            "title": "IEA, Key Questions on Energy and AI, April 2026",
            "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/key-questions-on-energy-and-ai/executive-summary",
            "observed": "Reports 485 TWh for 2025 and projects 950 TWh in 2030; describes financing and supply constraints. Retrieved September 10, 2026."
          }
        ]
      }
    }
  ]
}