Decision · Combinator on Solana

Select the builder of Predict

PredictDAO, Combinator on Solana. Opened 2026-04-27, closed 2026-04-30; the market drew 19 traders.

What it was for #

The market chose among 6 options, judged on time-weighted conditional token price over the window with a 0% threshold:

  • No (no change)
  • Cuddly
  • Ewan
  • TobiasBond
  • Matt
  • Mathis_Btc — selected

No

Cuddly

Ewan

TobiasBond

Matt

Mathis_Btc

From /data/combinator-decisions.json.

What was known #

What the evidence shows

Ask about this decision

The recorded prices imply 5: the leading challenger's lead over the default is 47.26%, against a 0.00% threshold. Based on Market reading · derivation.

Limitations: Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.

Revisit when: A correction to the final prices or governing rule.

Disclosed terms
Decision account: present · Options: present · Selection rule: present · Window timing: present · Question: present · Moderator: present available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution.

Instrument disclosures v1.0.0 · evidence 75ce80f6f76164376bc273f585cb5a3c9e282445b1af44dadec1b331182ac30d

Trading participation
150 observed trades · 19 wallets · $587.8 sized volume · largest wallet 23.0% of sized volume available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants. Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only.

Instrument participation v2.0.0 · evidence 75ce80f6f76164376bc273f585cb5a3c9e282445b1af44dadec1b331182ac30d

Market reading
Recorded · challenger lead over the default 47.26% · threshold 0.00% available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.

Instrument market-selection v1.0.0 · evidence 75ce80f6f76164376bc273f585cb5a3c9e282445b1af44dadec1b331182ac30d

Selection rule
A tie keeps the default available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics.

Instrument selection-rule v1.0.0 · evidence 75ce80f6f76164376bc273f585cb5a3c9e282445b1af44dadec1b331182ac30d

Closing stretch
fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence

fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch

Instrument closing-window v1.0.0 · evidence 75ce80f6f76164376bc273f585cb5a3c9e282445b1af44dadec1b331182ac30d

Recycled-stake treasury extraction
Combinator asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble Not applicable
Method and evidence

Combinator asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble

Instrument recycled-stake-treasury-extraction v1.0.2 · evidence 75ce80f6f76164376bc273f585cb5a3c9e282445b1af44dadec1b331182ac30d

Late-window TWAP outcome steering
this market selects among 6 options, and the late-window playbook reads one challenger's edge over the default Not applicable
Method and evidence

this market selects among 6 options, and the late-window playbook reads one challenger's edge over the default

Instrument late-window-outcome-steering v3.0.0 · evidence 75ce80f6f76164376bc273f585cb5a3c9e282445b1af44dadec1b331182ac30d

Wash-volume alignment inflation
NO-MATCH · 0/5 indicators matched available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.

Instrument wash-volume-alignment-inflation v4.0.0 · evidence 75ce80f6f76164376bc273f585cb5a3c9e282445b1af44dadec1b331182ac30d

Coordinated multi-wallet stake assembly
Combinator asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble Not applicable
Method and evidence

Combinator asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble

Instrument coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly v3.0.0 · evidence 75ce80f6f76164376bc273f585cb5a3c9e282445b1af44dadec1b331182ac30d

Earlier decisions
0 earlier decisions closed before 2026-04-27T15:03:28.000Z available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Prior selections are historical context, not an estimate of decision quality.

Instrument prior-decisions v1.0.0 · evidence 75ce80f6f76164376bc273f585cb5a3c9e282445b1af44dadec1b331182ac30d

Measured outcome
This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records. Not applicable
Method and evidence

This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.

Instrument measured-outcome v1.0.0 · evidence 75ce80f6f76164376bc273f585cb5a3c9e282445b1af44dadec1b331182ac30d

Evaluated 2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z. Evidence cutoff 2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z.

What was done #

Not checked. The proposal commits to no on-chain action the record can check.

From /data/engine-execution.json.

What followed #

Withheld. No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero.

Impact #

At the close the market priced Mathis_Btc +47.3% against No (Final option TWAPs from each option's pool oracle, in raw observation units.). What the token did afterwards:

  • 1 day after: withheld — No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero.
  • 7 days after: withheld — No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero.
  • 30 days after: withheld — No feed quotes this token: DexScreener lists no pair for it. It is recorded as absent, never as zero.

Two numbers side by side, not a verdict on the decision.

Capital #

Withheld. No execution is established, so no capital movement can be attributed to the decision. The proposal commits to no on-chain action the record can check.

Who acted, and under what authority #

No acting party is named by the sources.

This record

IRI https://eidos.software/decisions/combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-3fZX7N8rgd7YWfsZiHfyg7G4csmfwL7EpQKSUH3TRJSw/, an instance of Decision. Machine-readable: the object view. Built .

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