XIO Launch?!
star, Combinator on Solana. Opened 2026-01-28, closed 2026-01-30; the market drew 10 traders.
What it was for #
The market chose among 2 options, judged on time-weighted conditional token price over the window with a 0% threshold:
- No (no change)
- Yes — selected
No
Yes
From /data/combinator-decisions.json.
What was known #
What the evidence shows
The recorded prices imply 1: the leading challenger's lead over the default is 1.65%, against a 0.00% threshold. Based on Market reading · derivation.
Limitations: Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.
Revisit when: A correction to the final prices or governing rule.
- Disclosed terms
- Decision account: present · Options: present · Selection rule: present · Window timing: present · Question: present · Moderator: present available · complete evidence
Method and evidence
Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution.
Instrument disclosures v1.0.0 · evidence 0abbe839a336e4f5cbe5de4a557fcb4b973f28fd7d05fd95adde60b0d4c89d20
- Trading participation
- 120 observed trades · 10 wallets · $12,260.77 sized volume · largest wallet 45.2% of sized volume available · complete evidence
Method and evidence
Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants. Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only.
Instrument participation v2.0.0 · evidence 0abbe839a336e4f5cbe5de4a557fcb4b973f28fd7d05fd95adde60b0d4c89d20
- Market reading
- Recorded · challenger lead over the default 1.65% · threshold 0.00% available · complete evidence
Method and evidence
Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.
Instrument market-selection v1.0.0 · evidence 0abbe839a336e4f5cbe5de4a557fcb4b973f28fd7d05fd95adde60b0d4c89d20
- Selection rule
- A tie keeps the default available · complete evidence
Method and evidence
Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics.
Instrument selection-rule v1.0.0 · evidence 0abbe839a336e4f5cbe5de4a557fcb4b973f28fd7d05fd95adde60b0d4c89d20
- Closing stretch
- fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence
fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch
Instrument closing-window v1.0.0 · evidence 0abbe839a336e4f5cbe5de4a557fcb4b973f28fd7d05fd95adde60b0d4c89d20
- Recycled-stake treasury extraction
- Combinator asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble Not applicable
Method and evidence
Combinator asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble
Instrument recycled-stake-treasury-extraction v1.0.2 · evidence 0abbe839a336e4f5cbe5de4a557fcb4b973f28fd7d05fd95adde60b0d4c89d20
- Late-window TWAP outcome steering
- the token's price lane (solana-mainnet-beta/token-spot/StargWr5r6r8gZSjmEKGZ1dmvKWkj79r2z1xqjFstar/price-usd) begins 2026-10-02T14:30:15.553Z, after this decision closed unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence
the token's price lane (solana-mainnet-beta/token-spot/StargWr5r6r8gZSjmEKGZ1dmvKWkj79r2z1xqjFstar/price-usd) begins 2026-10-02T14:30:15.553Z, after this decision closed
Instrument late-window-outcome-steering v3.0.0 · evidence 0abbe839a336e4f5cbe5de4a557fcb4b973f28fd7d05fd95adde60b0d4c89d20
- Wash-volume alignment inflation
- NO-MATCH · 0/5 indicators matched available · complete evidence
Method and evidence
A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.
Instrument wash-volume-alignment-inflation v4.0.0 · evidence 0abbe839a336e4f5cbe5de4a557fcb4b973f28fd7d05fd95adde60b0d4c89d20
- Coordinated multi-wallet stake assembly
- Combinator asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble Not applicable
Method and evidence
Combinator asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble
Instrument coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly v3.0.0 · evidence 0abbe839a336e4f5cbe5de4a557fcb4b973f28fd7d05fd95adde60b0d4c89d20
- Earlier decisions
- 0 earlier decisions closed before 2026-01-28T15:58:58.000Z available · complete evidence
Method and evidence
Prior selections are historical context, not an estimate of decision quality.
Instrument prior-decisions v1.0.0 · evidence 0abbe839a336e4f5cbe5de4a557fcb4b973f28fd7d05fd95adde60b0d4c89d20
- Measured outcome
- This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records. Not applicable
Method and evidence
This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.
Instrument measured-outcome v1.0.0 · evidence 0abbe839a336e4f5cbe5de4a557fcb4b973f28fd7d05fd95adde60b0d4c89d20
Evaluated 2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z. Evidence cutoff 2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z.
What was done #
Not checked. The proposal commits to no on-chain action the record can check.
From /data/engine-execution.json.
What followed #
The organization's token price in USD, from the close ():
- At the close: withheld — The price lane for this token begins 2026-10-02T14:30:15.553Z, after this checkpoint; no earlier reading is on the record.
- 1 day after: withheld — The price lane for this token begins 2026-10-02T14:30:15.553Z, after this checkpoint; no earlier reading is on the record.
- 7 days after: withheld — The price lane for this token begins 2026-10-02T14:30:15.553Z, after this checkpoint; no earlier reading is on the record.
- 30 days after: withheld — The price lane for this token begins 2026-10-02T14:30:15.553Z, after this checkpoint; no earlier reading is on the record.
From the tape lane solana-mainnet-beta/token-spot/StargWr5r6r8gZSjmEKGZ1dmvKWkj79r2z1xqjFstar.
Impact #
At the close the market priced Yes +1.6% against No (Final option TWAPs from each option's pool oracle, in raw observation units.). What the token did afterwards:
- 1 day after: withheld — The price lane for this token begins 2026-10-02T14:30:15.553Z, after this checkpoint; no earlier reading is on the record.
- 7 days after: withheld — The price lane for this token begins 2026-10-02T14:30:15.553Z, after this checkpoint; no earlier reading is on the record.
- 30 days after: withheld — The price lane for this token begins 2026-10-02T14:30:15.553Z, after this checkpoint; no earlier reading is on the record.
Two numbers side by side, not a verdict on the decision.
Capital #
Withheld. No execution is established, so no capital movement can be attributed to the decision. The proposal commits to no on-chain action the record can check.
Who acted, and under what authority #
No acting party is named by the sources.
- moderator: star —
APF3vcmyRxtjeGgNe6wojeX5wciUQ2kGHnNMrz68oDX8
This record
IRI https://eidos.software/decisions/combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-464PNDwcfdsHzjN7czDwXmfPf62C7q3bfvdCRKzmAFwR/, an instance of Decision. Machine-readable: the object view. Built .