Decision · Combinator on Solana

Curation market: Trade the organization you believe should launch a fundraise on Star.

star, Combinator on Solana. Opened 2026-04-30, closed 2026-04-30; the market drew 9 traders.

What it was for #

The market chose among 4 options, judged on time-weighted conditional token price over the window with a 0% threshold:

trace ($TRACE) | https://star.fun/projects/3581210a-7dfe-46a4-84e0-dc6bef3d0790 — selected
Easydata ($EZ) | https://star.fun/projects/2ecfaa71-2ea3-4612-ba40-8ed746af1b58
Siren ($SIREN) | https://star.fun/projects/bde5c539-3a14-4560-8585-e69e93c7b2ff
None

trace ($TRACE) | https://star.fun/projects/3581210a-7dfe-46a4-84e0-dc6bef3d0790

Easydata ($EZ) | https://star.fun/projects/2ecfaa71-2ea3-4612-ba40-8ed746af1b58

Siren ($SIREN) | https://star.fun/projects/bde5c539-3a14-4560-8585-e69e93c7b2ff

None

From /data/combinator-decisions.json.

What was known #

What the evidence shows

Ask about this decision

The recorded prices imply 0: the leading challenger's lead over the default is -3.08%, against a 0.00% threshold. Based on Market reading · derivation.

Limitations: Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.

Revisit when: A correction to the final prices or governing rule.

Disclosed terms: Decision account: present · Options: present · Selection rule: present · Window timing: present · Question: present · Moderator: present available · complete evidence
Method and evidence
Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution.
Instrument disclosures v1.0.0 · evidence 943d26ddcd8167c685947d94302f78b3f637b57ba4d8ac0f9c9a3f56faa0b59d
Trading participation: 101 observed trades · 9 wallets · $12,442.05 sized volume · largest wallet 27.3% of sized volume available · complete evidence
Method and evidence
Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants. Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only.
Instrument participation v2.0.0 · evidence 943d26ddcd8167c685947d94302f78b3f637b57ba4d8ac0f9c9a3f56faa0b59d
Market reading: Recorded · challenger lead over the default -3.08% · threshold 0.00% available · complete evidence
Method and evidence
Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.
Instrument market-selection v1.0.0 · evidence 943d26ddcd8167c685947d94302f78b3f637b57ba4d8ac0f9c9a3f56faa0b59d
Selection rule: A tie keeps the default available · complete evidence
Method and evidence
Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics.
Instrument selection-rule v1.0.0 · evidence 943d26ddcd8167c685947d94302f78b3f637b57ba4d8ac0f9c9a3f56faa0b59d
Closing stretch: fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence
fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch
Instrument closing-window v1.0.0 · evidence 943d26ddcd8167c685947d94302f78b3f637b57ba4d8ac0f9c9a3f56faa0b59d
Recycled-stake treasury extraction: Combinator asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble Not applicable
Method and evidence
Combinator asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble
Instrument recycled-stake-treasury-extraction v1.0.2 · evidence 943d26ddcd8167c685947d94302f78b3f637b57ba4d8ac0f9c9a3f56faa0b59d
Late-window TWAP outcome steering: this market selects among 4 options, and the late-window playbook reads one challenger's edge over the default Not applicable
Method and evidence
this market selects among 4 options, and the late-window playbook reads one challenger's edge over the default
Instrument late-window-outcome-steering v3.0.0 · evidence 943d26ddcd8167c685947d94302f78b3f637b57ba4d8ac0f9c9a3f56faa0b59d
Wash-volume alignment inflation: NO-MATCH · 0/5 indicators matched available · complete evidence
Method and evidence
A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.
Instrument wash-volume-alignment-inflation v4.0.0 · evidence 943d26ddcd8167c685947d94302f78b3f637b57ba4d8ac0f9c9a3f56faa0b59d
Coordinated multi-wallet stake assembly: Combinator asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble Not applicable
Method and evidence
Combinator asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble
Instrument coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly v3.0.0 · evidence 943d26ddcd8167c685947d94302f78b3f637b57ba4d8ac0f9c9a3f56faa0b59d
Earlier decisions: 8 earlier decisions closed before 2026-04-30T21:02:08.000Z available · complete evidence
Method and evidence
Prior selections are historical context, not an estimate of decision quality.
Instrument prior-decisions v1.0.0 · evidence 943d26ddcd8167c685947d94302f78b3f637b57ba4d8ac0f9c9a3f56faa0b59d
Measured outcome: This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records. Not applicable
Method and evidence
This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.
Instrument measured-outcome v1.0.0 · evidence 943d26ddcd8167c685947d94302f78b3f637b57ba4d8ac0f9c9a3f56faa0b59d

Evaluated 2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z. Evidence cutoff 2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z.

What was done #

Not checked. The proposal commits to no on-chain action the record can check.

From /data/engine-execution.json.

What followed #

The organization's token price in USD, from the close (2026-04-30 22:12:08 UTC):

At the close: withheld — The price lane for this token begins 2026-10-02T14:30:15.553Z, after this checkpoint; no earlier reading is on the record.
1 day after: withheld — The price lane for this token begins 2026-10-02T14:30:15.553Z, after this checkpoint; no earlier reading is on the record.
7 days after: withheld — The price lane for this token begins 2026-10-02T14:30:15.553Z, after this checkpoint; no earlier reading is on the record.
30 days after: withheld — The price lane for this token begins 2026-10-02T14:30:15.553Z, after this checkpoint; no earlier reading is on the record.

From the tape lane solana-mainnet-beta/token-spot/StargWr5r6r8gZSjmEKGZ1dmvKWkj79r2z1xqjFstar.

Impact #

At the close the market priced trace ($TRACE) | https://star.fun/projects/3581210a-7dfe-46a4-84e0-dc6bef3d0790 +3.2% against Easydata ($EZ) | https://star.fun/projects/2ecfaa71-2ea3-4612-ba40-8ed746af1b58 (Final option TWAPs from each option's pool oracle, in raw observation units.). What the token did afterwards:

1 day after: withheld — The price lane for this token begins 2026-10-02T14:30:15.553Z, after this checkpoint; no earlier reading is on the record.
7 days after: withheld — The price lane for this token begins 2026-10-02T14:30:15.553Z, after this checkpoint; no earlier reading is on the record.
30 days after: withheld — The price lane for this token begins 2026-10-02T14:30:15.553Z, after this checkpoint; no earlier reading is on the record.

Two numbers side by side, not a verdict on the decision.

Capital #

Withheld. No execution is established, so no capital movement can be attributed to the decision. The proposal commits to no on-chain action the record can check.

Who acted, and under what authority #

No acting party is named by the sources.

moderator: star — APF3vcmyRxtjeGgNe6wojeX5wciUQ2kGHnNMrz68oDX8

This record

IRI https://eidos.software/decisions/combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-7tj4EK1SHr5HrxBsPEb1pDeEiXUdL1RgN7YC3eMbmtLp/, an instance of Decision. Machine-readable: the object view. Built 2026-10-20 00:46:53 UTC.

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