Decision · Combinator on Solana

SURF 004: Burn the Treasury and Team Allocation

SURF, Combinator on Solana. Opened 2026-06-09, closed 2026-06-11; the market drew 6 traders.

What it was for #

The market chose among 2 options, judged on time-weighted conditional token price over the window with a 0% threshold:

  • No (no change)
  • Yes — selected

No

Yes

From /data/combinator-decisions.json.

What was known #

What the evidence shows

Ask about this decision

Participation covers 68 observed trades and 6 wallets; the evidence is partial and 68 trades lack a sourced dollar size. Based on Trading participation · derivation.

Limitations: Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants. Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only.

Revisit when: Complete the trade history and missing dollar valuations.

The recorded prices imply 1: the leading challenger's lead over the default is 2.69%, against a 0.00% threshold. Based on Market reading · derivation.

Limitations: Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.

Revisit when: A correction to the final prices or governing rule.

Disclosed terms
Decision account: present · Options: present · Selection rule: present · Window timing: present · Question: present · Moderator: present available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution.

Instrument disclosures v1.0.0 · evidence 6d4a75ce7b237c1481a073fd2a5bc20f818619dcc43dbea8b7adc0aaecba0306

Trading participation
68 observed trades · 6 wallets · $0 sized volume available · partial evidence
Method and evidence

Some trades have no sourced dollar size.

Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants. Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only.

Instrument participation v2.0.0 · evidence 6d4a75ce7b237c1481a073fd2a5bc20f818619dcc43dbea8b7adc0aaecba0306

Market reading
Recorded · challenger lead over the default 2.69% · threshold 0.00% available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.

Instrument market-selection v1.0.0 · evidence 6d4a75ce7b237c1481a073fd2a5bc20f818619dcc43dbea8b7adc0aaecba0306

Selection rule
A tie keeps the default available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics.

Instrument selection-rule v1.0.0 · evidence 6d4a75ce7b237c1481a073fd2a5bc20f818619dcc43dbea8b7adc0aaecba0306

Closing stretch
fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence

fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch

Instrument closing-window v1.0.0 · evidence 6d4a75ce7b237c1481a073fd2a5bc20f818619dcc43dbea8b7adc0aaecba0306

Recycled-stake treasury extraction
Combinator asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble Not applicable
Method and evidence

Combinator asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble

Instrument recycled-stake-treasury-extraction v1.0.2 · evidence 6d4a75ce7b237c1481a073fd2a5bc20f818619dcc43dbea8b7adc0aaecba0306

Late-window TWAP outcome steering
its token's price is not measured: This token's only pairs sit under the dust floor ($1,000 of liquidity and under $100 a day traded), so no price is recorded. It is absent, never zero. unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence

its token's price is not measured: This token's only pairs sit under the dust floor ($1,000 of liquidity and under $100 a day traded), so no price is recorded. It is absent, never zero.

Instrument late-window-outcome-steering v3.0.0 · evidence 6d4a75ce7b237c1481a073fd2a5bc20f818619dcc43dbea8b7adc0aaecba0306

Wash-volume alignment inflation
68 of 68 trades carry no sourced dollar size, and the vector's turnover floor is in dollars unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence

68 of 68 trades carry no sourced dollar size, and the vector's turnover floor is in dollars

Instrument wash-volume-alignment-inflation v4.0.0 · evidence 6d4a75ce7b237c1481a073fd2a5bc20f818619dcc43dbea8b7adc0aaecba0306

Coordinated multi-wallet stake assembly
Combinator asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble Not applicable
Method and evidence

Combinator asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble

Instrument coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly v3.0.0 · evidence 6d4a75ce7b237c1481a073fd2a5bc20f818619dcc43dbea8b7adc0aaecba0306

Earlier decisions
4 earlier decisions closed before 2026-06-09T18:46:28.000Z available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Prior selections are historical context, not an estimate of decision quality.

Instrument prior-decisions v1.0.0 · evidence 6d4a75ce7b237c1481a073fd2a5bc20f818619dcc43dbea8b7adc0aaecba0306

Measured outcome
This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records. Not applicable
Method and evidence

This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.

Instrument measured-outcome v1.0.0 · evidence 6d4a75ce7b237c1481a073fd2a5bc20f818619dcc43dbea8b7adc0aaecba0306

Evaluated 2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z. Evidence cutoff 2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z.

What was done #

Not checked. The proposal commits to no on-chain action the record can check.

From /data/engine-execution.json.

What followed #

Withheld. This token's only pairs sit under the dust floor ($1,000 of liquidity and under $100 a day traded), so no price is recorded. It is absent, never zero.

Impact #

At the close the market priced Yes +2.7% against No (Final option TWAPs from each option's pool oracle, in raw observation units.). What the token did afterwards:

  • 1 day after: withheld — This token's only pairs sit under the dust floor ($1,000 of liquidity and under $100 a day traded), so no price is recorded. It is absent, never zero.
  • 7 days after: withheld — This token's only pairs sit under the dust floor ($1,000 of liquidity and under $100 a day traded), so no price is recorded. It is absent, never zero.
  • 30 days after: withheld — This token's only pairs sit under the dust floor ($1,000 of liquidity and under $100 a day traded), so no price is recorded. It is absent, never zero.

Two numbers side by side, not a verdict on the decision.

Capital #

Withheld. No execution is established, so no capital movement can be attributed to the decision. The proposal commits to no on-chain action the record can check.

Who acted, and under what authority #

No acting party is named by the sources.

This record

IRI https://eidos.software/decisions/combinator-solana-mainnet-beta-FGJiPPFhvCUyuEasatZAZoZzceMMhmtU5eLpDPoZJbYx/, an instance of Decision. Machine-readable: the object view. Built .

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