Skip to content
Eidos
Thesis Methodology
Platform
For OrganizationsMarket-governed organizations For FundsFunds and market participants For AgentsEconomic agents
Research
Open app Add your organization
Menu
Thesis Methodology For Organizations For Funds For Agents Research Open app Add your organization
Decision · Futarchy.fi on Gnosis Chain

Will 'GIP-128 Should GnosisDAO fund Gnosis Ltd with $30m year?' be approved ('Yes') or rejected ('No') by GnosisDAO? If neither happens, this question should remain open until August 31st, 2025 at 23:59 UTC, and then resolve to 'No'.

GnosisDAO, Futarchy.fi on Gnosis Chain. Opened 2025-07-16, closed —; the market drew 19 traders.

What it was for #

The market chose among 2 options, judged on GNO price in sDAI, if passed against if failed:

  • Pass — selected
  • Fail (no change)

From /data/futarchy-fi-decisions.json.

What was known #

What the evidence shows

Ask about this decision

Disclosed terms
Proposal contract: present · Options: present · Selection rule: missing · Window timing: missing · Question: present · Organization: present · First on its question: present available · partial evidence
Method and evidence

Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution.

Instrument disclosures v1.0.0 · evidence edbf98ec4f4a6b801e7295ba4e77ed58daedc84fc6c477bb3b86b1a794f40538

Trading participation
6456 observed trades · 19 wallets · $1,757.49 sized volume · largest wallet 71.6% of sized volume available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants. Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only.

Instrument participation v2.0.0 · evidence edbf98ec4f4a6b801e7295ba4e77ed58daedc84fc6c477bb3b86b1a794f40538

Market reading
No time-weighted price observation is available. unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence

No time-weighted price observation is available.

Instrument market-selection v1.0.0 · evidence edbf98ec4f4a6b801e7295ba4e77ed58daedc84fc6c477bb3b86b1a794f40538

Selection rule
No special selection terms identified available · partial evidence
Method and evidence

Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics.

Instrument selection-rule v1.0.0 · evidence edbf98ec4f4a6b801e7295ba4e77ed58daedc84fc6c477bb3b86b1a794f40538

Closing stretch
The closing stretch requires the threshold and both window bounds. unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence

The closing stretch requires the threshold and both window bounds.

Instrument closing-window v1.0.0 · evidence edbf98ec4f4a6b801e7295ba4e77ed58daedc84fc6c477bb3b86b1a794f40538

Recycled-stake treasury extraction
futarchy.fi asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble Not applicable
Method and evidence

futarchy.fi asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble

Instrument recycled-stake-treasury-extraction v1.0.2 · evidence edbf98ec4f4a6b801e7295ba4e77ed58daedc84fc6c477bb3b86b1a794f40538

Late-window TWAP outcome steering
the threshold the TWAPs were judged against is not on the record unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence

the threshold the TWAPs were judged against is not on the record

Instrument late-window-outcome-steering v3.0.0 · evidence edbf98ec4f4a6b801e7295ba4e77ed58daedc84fc6c477bb3b86b1a794f40538

Wash-volume alignment inflation
NO-MATCH · 0/5 indicators matched available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.

Instrument wash-volume-alignment-inflation v4.0.0 · evidence edbf98ec4f4a6b801e7295ba4e77ed58daedc84fc6c477bb3b86b1a794f40538

Coordinated multi-wallet stake assembly
futarchy.fi asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble Not applicable
Method and evidence

futarchy.fi asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble

Instrument coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly v3.0.0 · evidence edbf98ec4f4a6b801e7295ba4e77ed58daedc84fc6c477bb3b86b1a794f40538

Earlier decisions
1 earlier decisions closed before 2025-07-16T20:25:45.000Z available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Prior selections are historical context, not an estimate of decision quality.

Instrument prior-decisions v1.0.0 · evidence edbf98ec4f4a6b801e7295ba4e77ed58daedc84fc6c477bb3b86b1a794f40538

Measured outcome
This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records. Not applicable
Method and evidence

This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.

Instrument measured-outcome v1.0.0 · evidence edbf98ec4f4a6b801e7295ba4e77ed58daedc84fc6c477bb3b86b1a794f40538

Evaluated 2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z. Evidence cutoff 2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z.

What was done #

Not checked. The market is advisory: its result binds no on-chain action the record can check.

From /data/engine-execution.json.

What followed #

Withheld. The decision has no recorded close, so there is nothing to measure from.

Impact #

Withheld. The decoded record carries no closing pass and fail prices, so there is no forecast to set beside the outcome.

Capital #

Withheld. The chain has not been read for what this decision moved yet.

Who acted, and under what authority #

No acting party is named by the sources.

  • market contract: 0xbfe2b1b3746e401081c2abb56913c2d7042fa94d

This record

IRI https://eidos.software/decisions/futarchy-fi-gnosis-0xbfe2b1b3746e401081c2abb56913c2d7042fa94d/, an instance of Decision. Machine-readable: the object view. Built 2026-10-20 00:46:53 UTC.

All decisions

Eidos

Analyze decision markets. Follow competing choices, inspect the evidence and review what happened.

ChannelsXTelegram
ProductAppLive decisionsMCPDocs
Who it is forFor OrganizationsFor FundsFor AgentsStart a pilotRegister your organization
ReferenceMethodologyOrganizationsDecision casesResearchFAQ
FoundingRationaleThesisApproachCapital
ResourcesStatusPrivacyTerms of Servicellms.txt

Independent analysis. Eidos analyzes decision markets across five engines on Solana, Unichain, Base and Gnosis Chain. Explore market conditions, trading activity and recorded outcomes through the App, decision cases and published analysis. Eidos is independent of the engines, issuers and services it records.

Evidence and interpretation. Sources and methodology accompany the data. Market-implied expectations, execution checks and observed outcomes answer different questions. Each analytical finding names its method, supporting evidence and limitations. Missing or incomplete evidence is identified, and a no-match finding is not a statement that a decision is safe. Read the methodology.

Financial disclaimer. This material is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument, or investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Digital assets are volatile and may lose all value. Past outcomes are not indicative of future results. Data may be incomplete or delayed; no warranty of accuracy, completeness, or fitness for a particular purpose is made. Terms of Service.

© 2026 Eidos. All rights reserved.