Decision · MetaDAO on Solana

Umbra decision 9

Umbra, MetaDAO on Solana. Opened 2026-09-15, closed 2026-09-18.

What it was for #

The market chose among 2 options, judged on time-weighted conditional token price over the window with a -3% threshold:

  • Pass — selected
  • Fail (no change)

Withheld. The proposal's Squads transaction carries no memo text.

What was known #

What the evidence shows

Ask about this decision

The recorded prices imply pass: the leading challenger's lead over the default is 0.99%, against a -3.00% threshold. Based on Market reading · derivation.

Limitations: Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.

Revisit when: A correction to the final prices or governing rule.

Disclosed terms
Proposal account: present · Proposal class: present · Decision threshold: missing · Window timing: present · Proposer stake: missing · Proposer address: present · Execution account: present · Decision market: missing available · partial evidence
Method and evidence

Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution.

Instrument disclosures v1.0.0 · evidence feabbe291d2c62e97cf220c75b72c7880dd0dd1d929f140c8af8ef8a5a9e427f

Trading participation
10 observed trades · 3 wallets · $2,039.19 sized volume · largest wallet 65.8% of sized volume available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants. Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only.

Instrument participation v2.0.0 · evidence feabbe291d2c62e97cf220c75b72c7880dd0dd1d929f140c8af8ef8a5a9e427f

Market reading
Recorded · challenger lead over the default 0.99% · threshold -3.00% available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.

Instrument market-selection v1.0.0 · evidence feabbe291d2c62e97cf220c75b72c7880dd0dd1d929f140c8af8ef8a5a9e427f

Selection rule
Pass wins below fail — threshold ▼ 3.00% · Team class carries the lower bar available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics.

Instrument selection-rule v1.0.0 · evidence feabbe291d2c62e97cf220c75b72c7880dd0dd1d929f140c8af8ef8a5a9e427f

Closing stretch
24 retained reads · leader unchanged · implied outcome unchanged available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Retained observations do not establish what happened between reads or why prices changed.

Instrument closing-window v1.0.0 · evidence feabbe291d2c62e97cf220c75b72c7880dd0dd1d929f140c8af8ef8a5a9e427f

Recycled-stake treasury extraction
no wallet staked this proposal's launch Not applicable
Method and evidence

no wallet staked this proposal's launch

Instrument recycled-stake-treasury-extraction v1.0.2 · evidence feabbe291d2c62e97cf220c75b72c7880dd0dd1d929f140c8af8ef8a5a9e427f

Late-window TWAP outcome steering
NO-MATCH · 0/5 indicators matched available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.

Instrument late-window-outcome-steering v3.0.0 · evidence feabbe291d2c62e97cf220c75b72c7880dd0dd1d929f140c8af8ef8a5a9e427f

Wash-volume alignment inflation
NO-MATCH · 0/5 indicators matched available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.

Instrument wash-volume-alignment-inflation v4.0.0 · evidence feabbe291d2c62e97cf220c75b72c7880dd0dd1d929f140c8af8ef8a5a9e427f

Coordinated multi-wallet stake assembly
no wallet staked this proposal's launch, and assembly needs at least two Not applicable
Method and evidence

no wallet staked this proposal's launch, and assembly needs at least two

Instrument coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly v3.0.0 · evidence feabbe291d2c62e97cf220c75b72c7880dd0dd1d929f140c8af8ef8a5a9e427f

Earlier decisions
5 earlier decisions closed before 2026-09-16T19:29:08.000Z available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Prior selections are historical context, not an estimate of decision quality.

Instrument prior-decisions v1.0.0 · evidence feabbe291d2c62e97cf220c75b72c7880dd0dd1d929f140c8af8ef8a5a9e427f

Measured outcome
This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records. Not applicable
Method and evidence

This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.

Instrument measured-outcome v1.0.0 · evidence feabbe291d2c62e97cf220c75b72c7880dd0dd1d929f140c8af8ef8a5a9e427f

Evaluated 2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z. Evidence cutoff 2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z.

What was done #

Executed at . The Squads transaction executed, and its calls match the stored vault instructions.

Evidence: Atw9kCDL4Cus3PBohoUddKGCMpp432m3VnGRPoirZmZb, BpufHEEGPvsQ19UVhqDd5awHe9rAt4Ac8yVwMrGQyy4y, 2YMEo3BTGoUU75SketFBq7etKQooNgH51kfpocmac1Sj6yPPRFaHtXgqdSDjEK6PZLsGXGned61PaNt5t9nndebL

From /data/proposal-execution.json.

What followed #

The organization's token price in USD, from the close ():

  • At the close: $0.1880 (read )
  • 1 day after: $0.1976 (read )
  • 7 days after: $0.2079 (read )
  • 30 days after: $0.4283 (read )

From the tape lane solana/spot/umbra; the whole series is at /api/organization-history?slug=umbra&series=price-usd.

Impact #

At the close the market priced Pass +1.0% against Fail (no change) (Final pass and fail TWAPs at finalization (2026-09-18T19:30:02.000Z), normalized conditional prices.). What the token did afterwards:

  • 1 day after: +5.1%
  • 7 days after: +10.6%
  • 30 days after: +127.8%

Two numbers side by side, not a verdict on the decision.

Capital #

What the Squads execute that carried out the decision moved, at every call depth beneath it.

Transaction: 2YMEo3BTGoUU75SketFBq7etKQooNgH51kfpocmac1Sj6yPPRFaHtXgqdSDjEK6PZLsGXGned61PaNt5t9nndebL

From /data/decision-capital.json.

Who acted, and under what authority #

This record

IRI https://eidos.software/decisions/metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-2gp6SCEYhMRymhA6BrwxYkxr1zmfCgHnsoxT5hXNWV4r/, an instance of Decision. Machine-readable: the object view. Built .

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