Decision · MetaDAO on Solana

Umbra decision 2

Umbra, MetaDAO on Solana. Opened 2026-01-14, closed 2026-01-17.

What it was for #

The market chose among 2 options, judged on time-weighted conditional token price over the window with a 1.5% threshold:

  • Pass — selected
  • Fail (no change)

Withheld. The proposal's Squads transaction carries no memo text.

What was known #

What the evidence shows

Ask about this decision

The recorded prices imply pass: the leading challenger's lead over the default is 3.96%, against a 1.50% threshold. Based on Market reading · derivation.

Limitations: Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.

Revisit when: A correction to the final prices or governing rule.

Disclosed terms
Proposal account: present · Proposal class: present · Decision threshold: missing · Window timing: present · Proposer stake: missing · Proposer address: present · Execution account: present · Decision market: missing available · partial evidence
Method and evidence

Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution.

Instrument disclosures v1.0.0 · evidence eeb00cc54e261357454b5bdc903ce17c10faaf396d0b5a979a26c3ec2e11ade5

Trading participation
860 observed trades · 19 wallets · $100,626.12 sized volume · largest wallet 82.6% of sized volume available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants. Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only.

Instrument participation v2.0.0 · evidence eeb00cc54e261357454b5bdc903ce17c10faaf396d0b5a979a26c3ec2e11ade5

Market reading
Recorded · challenger lead over the default 3.96% · threshold 1.50% available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.

Instrument market-selection v1.0.0 · evidence eeb00cc54e261357454b5bdc903ce17c10faaf396d0b5a979a26c3ec2e11ade5

Selection rule
No special selection terms identified available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics.

Instrument selection-rule v1.0.0 · evidence eeb00cc54e261357454b5bdc903ce17c10faaf396d0b5a979a26c3ec2e11ade5

Closing stretch
fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence

fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch

Instrument closing-window v1.0.0 · evidence eeb00cc54e261357454b5bdc903ce17c10faaf396d0b5a979a26c3ec2e11ade5

Recycled-stake treasury extraction
it made 415 transactions in the 30 days before launch, more than the 400 read for bridged funding unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence

it made 415 transactions in the 30 days before launch, more than the 400 read for bridged funding

Instrument recycled-stake-treasury-extraction v1.0.2 · evidence eeb00cc54e261357454b5bdc903ce17c10faaf396d0b5a979a26c3ec2e11ade5

Late-window TWAP outcome steering
NO-MATCH · 0/5 indicators matched available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.

Instrument late-window-outcome-steering v3.0.0 · evidence eeb00cc54e261357454b5bdc903ce17c10faaf396d0b5a979a26c3ec2e11ade5

Wash-volume alignment inflation
NO-MATCH · 0/5 indicators matched available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.

Instrument wash-volume-alignment-inflation v4.0.0 · evidence eeb00cc54e261357454b5bdc903ce17c10faaf396d0b5a979a26c3ec2e11ade5

Coordinated multi-wallet stake assembly
the first activity or funder of 1 staking wallet(s) was not read unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence

the first activity or funder of 1 staking wallet(s) was not read

Instrument coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly v3.0.0 · evidence eeb00cc54e261357454b5bdc903ce17c10faaf396d0b5a979a26c3ec2e11ade5

Earlier decisions
1 earlier decisions closed before 2026-01-15T09:02:13.000Z available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Prior selections are historical context, not an estimate of decision quality.

Instrument prior-decisions v1.0.0 · evidence eeb00cc54e261357454b5bdc903ce17c10faaf396d0b5a979a26c3ec2e11ade5

Measured outcome
This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records. Not applicable
Method and evidence

This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.

Instrument measured-outcome v1.0.0 · evidence eeb00cc54e261357454b5bdc903ce17c10faaf396d0b5a979a26c3ec2e11ade5

Evaluated 2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z. Evidence cutoff 2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z.

What was done #

Executed at . The Squads transaction executed, and its calls match the stored vault instructions.

Evidence: CeWULzVK9iRvU5Qc4S1XT4i8dHW73KygZp9Uf6rVoKLJ, Ae7kWqqWGNTGHvFdnHKvMdS4W2zK7FdkXBaksrLuxTBA, 37H9iPHKHaM3eC7UrVWo24KfwEHar2RuF3evyMsYtgDg46V84VCxvTRZFg1UQNM8s7tGRUxiYCziG1Zthq51B2kS

From /data/proposal-execution.json.

What followed #

The organization's token price in USD, from the close ():

  • At the close: $1.36 (read )
  • 1 day after: $1.51 (read )
  • 7 days after: $1.89 (read )
  • 30 days after: $0.7251 (read )

From the tape lane solana/spot/umbra; the whole series is at /api/organization-history?slug=umbra&series=price-usd.

Impact #

At the close the market priced Pass +4.0% against Fail (no change) (Final pass and fail TWAPs at finalization (2026-01-17T09:04:02.000Z), normalized conditional prices.). What the token did afterwards:

  • 1 day after: +11.5%
  • 7 days after: +39.1%
  • 30 days after: -46.6%

Two numbers side by side, not a verdict on the decision.

Capital #

What the Squads execute that carried out the decision moved, at every call depth beneath it.

Transaction: 37H9iPHKHaM3eC7UrVWo24KfwEHar2RuF3evyMsYtgDg46V84VCxvTRZFg1UQNM8s7tGRUxiYCziG1Zthq51B2kS

From /data/decision-capital.json.

Who acted, and under what authority #

This record

IRI https://eidos.software/decisions/metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-3seyB3i5bLQcUReaQoLkgwkNbVH7U7nnfiAFVaNawU6F/, an instance of Decision. Machine-readable: the object view. Built .

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