Decision · MetaDAO on Solana

Basket decision 1

Basket, MetaDAO on Solana. Opened 2026-08-15, closed 2026-08-18.

What it was for #

The market chose among 2 options, judged on time-weighted conditional token price over the window with a -3% threshold:

  • Pass — selected
  • Fail (no change)

MetaDAO proposal Title: Redeploy 25% of the futarchy AMM liquidity to Omnipair Full proposal: https://drive.proton.me/urls/6YSDVG1XMG#qbCDbazl3G0A

From /data/proposal-text.json.

What was known #

What the evidence shows

Ask about this decision

The recorded prices imply pass: the leading challenger's lead over the default is 4.85%, against a -3.00% threshold. Based on Market reading · derivation.

Limitations: Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.

Revisit when: A correction to the final prices or governing rule.

Disclosed terms
Proposal account: present · Proposal class: present · Decision threshold: missing · Window timing: present · Proposer stake: missing · Proposer address: present · Execution account: present · Decision market: missing available · partial evidence
Method and evidence

Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution.

Instrument disclosures v1.0.0 · evidence 7c5ccd498eb5a7b582efa6840abbd776c78d0375e3f7bd0344d685fd61b43710

Trading participation
13 observed trades · 6 wallets · $43.37 sized volume · largest wallet 35.4% of sized volume available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants. Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only.

Instrument participation v2.0.0 · evidence 7c5ccd498eb5a7b582efa6840abbd776c78d0375e3f7bd0344d685fd61b43710

Market reading
Recorded · challenger lead over the default 4.85% · threshold -3.00% available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.

Instrument market-selection v1.0.0 · evidence 7c5ccd498eb5a7b582efa6840abbd776c78d0375e3f7bd0344d685fd61b43710

Selection rule
Pass wins below fail — threshold ▼ 3.00% · Team class carries the lower bar available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics.

Instrument selection-rule v1.0.0 · evidence 7c5ccd498eb5a7b582efa6840abbd776c78d0375e3f7bd0344d685fd61b43710

Closing stretch
fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence

fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch

Instrument closing-window v1.0.0 · evidence 7c5ccd498eb5a7b582efa6840abbd776c78d0375e3f7bd0344d685fd61b43710

Recycled-stake treasury extraction
trades: Supply indexed trades or a source-attributed tradeCadence summary unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence

trades: Supply indexed trades or a source-attributed tradeCadence summary

Instrument recycled-stake-treasury-extraction v1.0.2 · evidence 7c5ccd498eb5a7b582efa6840abbd776c78d0375e3f7bd0344d685fd61b43710

Late-window TWAP outcome steering
no reading of the token's price within 6 hours after the decision was finalized (solana/spot/basket/price-usd) unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence

no reading of the token's price within 6 hours after the decision was finalized (solana/spot/basket/price-usd)

Instrument late-window-outcome-steering v3.0.0 · evidence 7c5ccd498eb5a7b582efa6840abbd776c78d0375e3f7bd0344d685fd61b43710

Wash-volume alignment inflation
NO-MATCH · 0/5 indicators matched available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.

Instrument wash-volume-alignment-inflation v4.0.0 · evidence 7c5ccd498eb5a7b582efa6840abbd776c78d0375e3f7bd0344d685fd61b43710

Coordinated multi-wallet stake assembly
NO-MATCH · 1/5 indicators matched available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.

Instrument coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly v3.0.0 · evidence 7c5ccd498eb5a7b582efa6840abbd776c78d0375e3f7bd0344d685fd61b43710

Earlier decisions
0 earlier decisions closed before 2026-08-16T21:53:22.000Z available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Prior selections are historical context, not an estimate of decision quality.

Instrument prior-decisions v1.0.0 · evidence 7c5ccd498eb5a7b582efa6840abbd776c78d0375e3f7bd0344d685fd61b43710

Measured outcome
This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records. Not applicable
Method and evidence

This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.

Instrument measured-outcome v1.0.0 · evidence 7c5ccd498eb5a7b582efa6840abbd776c78d0375e3f7bd0344d685fd61b43710

Evaluated 2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z. Evidence cutoff 2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z.

What was done #

Executed at . The Squads transaction executed, and its calls match the stored vault instructions.

Evidence: CfkJF6AexhWcQTjhSFDdACpKNATATHh9NF6ACSdvr8dV, FHHhagKeoXKRrHPY62Ly7Mr3bWSzzC8VmKWeLmvpPYy3, KfnLwX78QMYkM3eGaHdqH8MgXjN225UpkVvCzb3njEL6F7cvHesMpy3WZmtR6mSZHrexwGWF7J9zKda33S522e1

From /data/proposal-execution.json.

What followed #

The organization's token price in USD, from the close ():

  • At the close: $0.0008382 (read )
  • 1 day after: $0.0008226 (read )
  • 7 days after: $0.0008345 (read )
  • 30 days after: $0.001405 (read )

From the tape lane solana/spot/basket; the whole series is at /api/organization-history?slug=basket&series=price-usd.

Impact #

At the close the market priced Pass +4.8% against Fail (no change) (Final pass and fail TWAPs at finalization (2026-08-18T21:54:01.000Z), normalized conditional prices.). What the token did afterwards:

  • 1 day after: -1.9%
  • 7 days after: -0.4%
  • 30 days after: +67.7%

Two numbers side by side, not a verdict on the decision.

Capital #

What the Squads execute that carried out the decision moved, at every call depth beneath it.

Transaction: KfnLwX78QMYkM3eGaHdqH8MgXjN225UpkVvCzb3njEL6F7cvHesMpy3WZmtR6mSZHrexwGWF7J9zKda33S522e1

From /data/decision-capital.json.

Who acted, and under what authority #

This record

IRI https://eidos.software/decisions/metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-5K42ZzoS5VfSBmcr27XqQmd9DF7c6q3WiqGpPsjfQq1a/, an instance of Decision. Machine-readable: the object view. Built .

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