Decision · MetaDAO on Solana

Umbra decision 1

Umbra, MetaDAO on Solana. Opened 2025-11-12, closed 2025-11-15.

What it was for #

The market chose among 2 options, judged on time-weighted conditional token price over the window with a 1.5% threshold:

  • Pass — selected
  • Fail (no change)

Withheld. The proposal's Squads transaction carries no memo text.

What was known #

What the evidence shows

Ask about this decision

The recorded prices imply pass: the leading challenger's lead over the default is 31.90%, against a 1.50% threshold. Based on Market reading · derivation.

Limitations: Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.

Revisit when: A correction to the final prices or governing rule.

wash-volume-alignment-inflation matched 4 of 5 indicators (HIGH-RISK). Based on Wash-volume alignment inflation · derivation.

Limitations: A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.

Revisit when: New or corrected evidence changes the detector's inputs.

Disclosed terms
Proposal account: present · Proposal class: present · Decision threshold: missing · Window timing: present · Proposer stake: missing · Proposer address: present · Execution account: present · Decision market: missing available · partial evidence
Method and evidence

Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution.

Instrument disclosures v1.0.0 · evidence 2055ed02562f22c4a69b4fe020d8e5ea443f144ec6461ec473761759dd6ce075

Trading participation
3185 observed trades · 25 wallets · $535,519.95 sized volume · largest wallet 71.9% of sized volume available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants. Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only.

Instrument participation v2.0.0 · evidence 2055ed02562f22c4a69b4fe020d8e5ea443f144ec6461ec473761759dd6ce075

Market reading
Recorded · challenger lead over the default 31.90% · threshold 1.50% available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.

Instrument market-selection v1.0.0 · evidence 2055ed02562f22c4a69b4fe020d8e5ea443f144ec6461ec473761759dd6ce075

Selection rule
No special selection terms identified available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics.

Instrument selection-rule v1.0.0 · evidence 2055ed02562f22c4a69b4fe020d8e5ea443f144ec6461ec473761759dd6ce075

Closing stretch
fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence

fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch

Instrument closing-window v1.0.0 · evidence 2055ed02562f22c4a69b4fe020d8e5ea443f144ec6461ec473761759dd6ce075

Recycled-stake treasury extraction
the largest-staker staked 255,000 tokens, of which 255,000 came by transfer from another wallet (CEGVyHuSd2wCnchn88RYCNP1e3zuv9d1UGgM7CuYnSSJ sent the most); how that wallet acquired them is not read unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence

the largest-staker staked 255,000 tokens, of which 255,000 came by transfer from another wallet (CEGVyHuSd2wCnchn88RYCNP1e3zuv9d1UGgM7CuYnSSJ sent the most); how that wallet acquired them is not read

Instrument recycled-stake-treasury-extraction v1.0.2 · evidence 2055ed02562f22c4a69b4fe020d8e5ea443f144ec6461ec473761759dd6ce075

Late-window TWAP outcome steering
NO-MATCH · 0/5 indicators matched available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.

Instrument late-window-outcome-steering v3.0.0 · evidence 2055ed02562f22c4a69b4fe020d8e5ea443f144ec6461ec473761759dd6ce075

Wash-volume alignment inflation
HIGH-RISK · 4/5 indicators matched available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.

Instrument wash-volume-alignment-inflation v4.0.0 · evidence 2055ed02562f22c4a69b4fe020d8e5ea443f144ec6461ec473761759dd6ce075

Coordinated multi-wallet stake assembly
the first activity or funder of 3 staking wallet(s) was not read unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence

the first activity or funder of 3 staking wallet(s) was not read

Instrument coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly v3.0.0 · evidence 2055ed02562f22c4a69b4fe020d8e5ea443f144ec6461ec473761759dd6ce075

Earlier decisions
0 earlier decisions closed before 2025-11-13T18:34:47.000Z available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Prior selections are historical context, not an estimate of decision quality.

Instrument prior-decisions v1.0.0 · evidence 2055ed02562f22c4a69b4fe020d8e5ea443f144ec6461ec473761759dd6ce075

Measured outcome
This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records. Not applicable
Method and evidence

This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.

Instrument measured-outcome v1.0.0 · evidence 2055ed02562f22c4a69b4fe020d8e5ea443f144ec6461ec473761759dd6ce075

Evaluated 2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z. Evidence cutoff 2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z.

What was done #

Executed at . The Squads transaction executed, and its calls match the stored vault instructions.

Evidence: FFPvNjKts9a8hFNfXv6WtxN3a8y6731PbhhgLsbJDwC, 2TREKsD6eKL1C7tczRP4NJvSxDidcU69P1v2kLQMo8Gp, 4R3UzACotNYkp5mYCQ8RCwbLdbXZG33YRsVtGVW5gpLZzFAVfXZyJBSYTtDWTdQAg8bcWqF82HAG8XrW8QJpH6gt

From /data/proposal-execution.json.

What followed #

The organization's token price in USD, from the close ():

  • At the close: $0.6387 (read )
  • 1 day after: $0.6042 (read )
  • 7 days after: $0.6145 (read )
  • 30 days after: $0.8708 (read )

From the tape lane solana/spot/umbra; the whole series is at /api/organization-history?slug=umbra&series=price-usd.

Impact #

At the close the market priced Pass +31.9% against Fail (no change) (Final pass and fail TWAPs at finalization (2025-11-15T18:36:01.000Z), normalized conditional prices.). What the token did afterwards:

  • 1 day after: -5.4%
  • 7 days after: -3.8%
  • 30 days after: +36.3%

Two numbers side by side, not a verdict on the decision.

Capital #

What the Squads execute that carried out the decision moved, at every call depth beneath it.

Transaction: 4R3UzACotNYkp5mYCQ8RCwbLdbXZG33YRsVtGVW5gpLZzFAVfXZyJBSYTtDWTdQAg8bcWqF82HAG8XrW8QJpH6gt

From /data/decision-capital.json.

Who acted, and under what authority #

This record

IRI https://eidos.software/decisions/metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-71nYHjLpgY7evn9G4UaGCBd6cYHpGWzrzd3ESs2KUduG/, an instance of Decision. Machine-readable: the object view. Built .

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