Decision · MetaDAO on Solana

MetaDAO decision 1

MetaDAO, MetaDAO on Solana. Opened 2026-01-23, closed 2026-01-26.

What it was for #

The market chose among 2 options, judged on time-weighted conditional token price over the window with a -3% threshold:

  • Pass — selected
  • Fail (no change)

Withheld. The proposal's Squads transaction carries no memo text.

What was known #

What the evidence shows

Ask about this decision

The recorded prices imply pass: the leading challenger's lead over the default is 0.38%, against a -3.00% threshold. Based on Market reading · derivation.

Limitations: Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.

Revisit when: A correction to the final prices or governing rule.

Disclosed terms
Proposal account: present · Proposal class: present · Decision threshold: missing · Window timing: present · Proposer stake: missing · Proposer address: present · Execution account: present · Decision market: missing available · partial evidence
Method and evidence

Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution.

Instrument disclosures v1.0.0 · evidence caad69283649c1a0ca294ee1d21e0ccbed9059fa589443b9c32726d80c7c481e

Trading participation
17 observed trades · 13 wallets · $14,627.81 sized volume · largest wallet 48.8% of sized volume available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants. Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only.

Instrument participation v2.0.0 · evidence caad69283649c1a0ca294ee1d21e0ccbed9059fa589443b9c32726d80c7c481e

Market reading
Recorded · challenger lead over the default 0.38% · threshold -3.00% available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.

Instrument market-selection v1.0.0 · evidence caad69283649c1a0ca294ee1d21e0ccbed9059fa589443b9c32726d80c7c481e

Selection rule
Pass wins below fail — threshold ▼ 3.00% · Team class carries the lower bar available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics.

Instrument selection-rule v1.0.0 · evidence caad69283649c1a0ca294ee1d21e0ccbed9059fa589443b9c32726d80c7c481e

Closing stretch
fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence

fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch

Instrument closing-window v1.0.0 · evidence caad69283649c1a0ca294ee1d21e0ccbed9059fa589443b9c32726d80c7c481e

Recycled-stake treasury extraction
the largest-staker staked 123,736.455 tokens, of which 123,736.455 came by transfer from another wallet (3H9stfUFjh2f3iNLUERJQvSS919UEZgcrsHr1tRm4JEV sent the most); how that wallet acquired them is not read unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence

the largest-staker staked 123,736.455 tokens, of which 123,736.455 came by transfer from another wallet (3H9stfUFjh2f3iNLUERJQvSS919UEZgcrsHr1tRm4JEV sent the most); how that wallet acquired them is not read

Instrument recycled-stake-treasury-extraction v1.0.2 · evidence caad69283649c1a0ca294ee1d21e0ccbed9059fa589443b9c32726d80c7c481e

Late-window TWAP outcome steering
NO-MATCH · 0/5 indicators matched available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.

Instrument late-window-outcome-steering v3.0.0 · evidence caad69283649c1a0ca294ee1d21e0ccbed9059fa589443b9c32726d80c7c481e

Wash-volume alignment inflation
NO-MATCH · 0/5 indicators matched available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.

Instrument wash-volume-alignment-inflation v4.0.0 · evidence caad69283649c1a0ca294ee1d21e0ccbed9059fa589443b9c32726d80c7c481e

Coordinated multi-wallet stake assembly
NO-MATCH · 1/5 indicators matched available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.

Instrument coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly v3.0.0 · evidence caad69283649c1a0ca294ee1d21e0ccbed9059fa589443b9c32726d80c7c481e

Earlier decisions
0 earlier decisions closed before 2026-01-24T02:52:33.000Z available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Prior selections are historical context, not an estimate of decision quality.

Instrument prior-decisions v1.0.0 · evidence caad69283649c1a0ca294ee1d21e0ccbed9059fa589443b9c32726d80c7c481e

Measured outcome
This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records. Not applicable
Method and evidence

This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.

Instrument measured-outcome v1.0.0 · evidence caad69283649c1a0ca294ee1d21e0ccbed9059fa589443b9c32726d80c7c481e

Evaluated 2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z. Evidence cutoff 2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z.

What was done #

Executed at . The Squads transaction executed, and its calls match the stored vault instructions.

Evidence: DjrETjqLoAWUyXr3rG1aXchS7egm5tzSt5hreHTi78iv, B9FYHwnXvwKWSXoaf74Y45ZbHRhr153kVmbp2UPWwi8F, 2Wd1Pe6xQ8ZCyAG2iYQLGX7zMSnHDpTjQqox1ddnsVm96rqBP2SxsQPAhdb8UXTyh3w9GhK2k4ntcbSzxi8SWBwp

From /data/proposal-execution.json.

What followed #

The organization's token price in USD, from the close ():

  • At the close: $5.99 (read )
  • 1 day after: $5.95 (read )
  • 7 days after: $4.01 (read )
  • 30 days after: $3.61 (read )

From the tape lane solana/spot/metadao; the whole series is at /api/organization-history?slug=metadao&series=price-usd.

Impact #

At the close the market priced Pass +0.4% against Fail (no change) (Final pass and fail TWAPs at finalization (2026-01-26T02:56:02.000Z), normalized conditional prices.). What the token did afterwards:

  • 1 day after: -0.7%
  • 7 days after: -33.2%
  • 30 days after: -39.7%

Two numbers side by side, not a verdict on the decision.

Capital #

What the Squads execute that carried out the decision moved, at every call depth beneath it.

Transaction: 2Wd1Pe6xQ8ZCyAG2iYQLGX7zMSnHDpTjQqox1ddnsVm96rqBP2SxsQPAhdb8UXTyh3w9GhK2k4ntcbSzxi8SWBwp

From /data/decision-capital.json.

Who acted, and under what authority #

This record

IRI https://eidos.software/decisions/metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-8PHuBBwqsL9EzNT1PXSs5ZEnTVDCQ6UcvUC4iCgCMynx/, an instance of Decision. Machine-readable: the object view. Built .

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