Decision · MetaDAO on Solana

PREDICT decision 3

PREDICT, MetaDAO on Solana. Opened 2026-10-07, closed 2026-10-10.

What it was for #

The market chose among 2 options, judged on time-weighted conditional token price over the window with a -3% threshold:

  • Pass — selected
  • Fail (no change)

PREDICT Proposal #003: Transfers Meteora LP to Spark. Full text: https://drive.proton.me/urls/AFBE5ZRC2C#ouO5Iyy3GpkF

From /data/proposal-text.json.

What was known #

What the evidence shows

Ask about this decision

The recorded prices imply pass: the leading challenger's lead over the default is 7.40%, against a -3.00% threshold. Based on Market reading · derivation.

Limitations: Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.

Revisit when: A correction to the final prices or governing rule.

Disclosed terms
Proposal account: present · Proposal class: present · Decision threshold: missing · Window timing: present · Proposer stake: missing · Proposer address: present · Execution account: present · Decision market: missing available · partial evidence
Method and evidence

Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution.

Instrument disclosures v1.0.0 · evidence e0b28cdae1af2e72a2be52c6241d5bff054109e01dcf84fbdbe8e81cbe3aa9e6

Trading participation
5 observed trades · 3 wallets · $72.49 sized volume · largest wallet 48.6% of sized volume available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants. Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only.

Instrument participation v2.0.0 · evidence e0b28cdae1af2e72a2be52c6241d5bff054109e01dcf84fbdbe8e81cbe3aa9e6

Market reading
Recorded · challenger lead over the default 7.40% · threshold -3.00% available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.

Instrument market-selection v1.0.0 · evidence e0b28cdae1af2e72a2be52c6241d5bff054109e01dcf84fbdbe8e81cbe3aa9e6

Selection rule
Pass wins below fail — threshold ▼ 3.00% · Team class carries the lower bar available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics.

Instrument selection-rule v1.0.0 · evidence e0b28cdae1af2e72a2be52c6241d5bff054109e01dcf84fbdbe8e81cbe3aa9e6

Closing stretch
24 retained reads · leader unchanged · implied outcome unchanged available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Retained observations do not establish what happened between reads or why prices changed.

Instrument closing-window v1.0.0 · evidence e0b28cdae1af2e72a2be52c6241d5bff054109e01dcf84fbdbe8e81cbe3aa9e6

Recycled-stake treasury extraction
no wallet staked this proposal's launch Not applicable
Method and evidence

no wallet staked this proposal's launch

Instrument recycled-stake-treasury-extraction v1.0.2 · evidence e0b28cdae1af2e72a2be52c6241d5bff054109e01dcf84fbdbe8e81cbe3aa9e6

Late-window TWAP outcome steering
no reading of the token's price within 6 hours after the decision was finalized (solana-mainnet-beta/token-spot/5FtV5gisCyCqJHsiCne4pX2r6d2YPRF9Kcfx2DKvmeta/price-usd) unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence

no reading of the token's price within 6 hours after the decision was finalized (solana-mainnet-beta/token-spot/5FtV5gisCyCqJHsiCne4pX2r6d2YPRF9Kcfx2DKvmeta/price-usd)

Instrument late-window-outcome-steering v3.0.0 · evidence e0b28cdae1af2e72a2be52c6241d5bff054109e01dcf84fbdbe8e81cbe3aa9e6

Wash-volume alignment inflation
NO-MATCH · 0/5 indicators matched available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.

Instrument wash-volume-alignment-inflation v4.0.0 · evidence e0b28cdae1af2e72a2be52c6241d5bff054109e01dcf84fbdbe8e81cbe3aa9e6

Coordinated multi-wallet stake assembly
no wallet staked this proposal's launch, and assembly needs at least two Not applicable
Method and evidence

no wallet staked this proposal's launch, and assembly needs at least two

Instrument coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly v3.0.0 · evidence e0b28cdae1af2e72a2be52c6241d5bff054109e01dcf84fbdbe8e81cbe3aa9e6

Earlier decisions
2 earlier decisions closed before 2026-10-08T08:28:23.000Z available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Prior selections are historical context, not an estimate of decision quality.

Instrument prior-decisions v1.0.0 · evidence e0b28cdae1af2e72a2be52c6241d5bff054109e01dcf84fbdbe8e81cbe3aa9e6

Measured outcome
This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records. Not applicable
Method and evidence

This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.

Instrument measured-outcome v1.0.0 · evidence e0b28cdae1af2e72a2be52c6241d5bff054109e01dcf84fbdbe8e81cbe3aa9e6

Evaluated 2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z. Evidence cutoff 2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z.

What was done #

Executed at . The Squads transaction executed, and its calls match the stored vault instructions.

Evidence: CtG7x8Qj5LZ4HrA5XyDF3s7bmWXaXLWyYZVyA9Dy1cBW, 2qBAr8jAHwGipweZiSZyaLGf7YsWfx1cSeBdRVGwzjL4, 25jZcce1g1EQUZH6pEJTvKvfAmhnmv72kN49iRdfPFBzCd5fWeBC822mG7ePzZwtWdjSxvKAiPykbev3KJEbxLrg

From /data/proposal-execution.json.

What followed #

The organization's token price in USD, from the close ():

  • At the close: withheld — No price reading within an hour before the close.
  • 1 day after: withheld — No price reading within 3 hours of the checkpoint.
  • 7 days after: withheld — No price reading within 12 hours of the checkpoint.
  • 30 days after: withheld — Not yet reached: due 2026-11-09T08:28:23.000Z.

From the tape lane solana-mainnet-beta/token-spot/5FtV5gisCyCqJHsiCne4pX2r6d2YPRF9Kcfx2DKvmeta.

Impact #

At the close the market priced Pass +7.4% against Fail (no change) (Final pass and fail TWAPs at finalization (2026-10-10T08:29:01.000Z), normalized conditional prices.). What the token did afterwards:

  • 1 day after: withheld — No price reading within 3 hours of the checkpoint.
  • 7 days after: withheld — No price reading within 12 hours of the checkpoint.
  • 30 days after: withheld — Not yet reached: due 2026-11-09T08:28:23.000Z.

Two numbers side by side, not a verdict on the decision.

Capital #

What the Squads execute that carried out the decision moved, at every call depth beneath it.

Transaction: 25jZcce1g1EQUZH6pEJTvKvfAmhnmv72kN49iRdfPFBzCd5fWeBC822mG7ePzZwtWdjSxvKAiPykbev3KJEbxLrg

From /data/decision-capital.json.

Who acted, and under what authority #

This record

IRI https://eidos.software/decisions/metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-8WnG78VL6qFCFdb8GRjAQ8W8JRG8wCCvMhpN2Jn3skVG/, an instance of Decision. Machine-readable: the object view. Built .

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