Umbra decision 5
Umbra, MetaDAO on Solana. Opened 2026-07-31, closed 2026-08-03.
What it was for #
The market chose among 2 options, judged on time-weighted conditional token price over the window with a 3% threshold:
- Pass
- Fail (no change) — selected
Withheld. The proposal's Squads transaction carries no memo text.
What was known #
What the evidence shows
The recorded prices imply fail: the leading challenger's lead over the default is -16.56%, against a 3.00% threshold. Based on Market reading · derivation.
Limitations: Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.
Revisit when: A correction to the final prices or governing rule.
recycled-stake-treasury-extraction matched 5 of 5 indicators (HIGH-RISK). Based on Recycled-stake treasury extraction · derivation.
Limitations: A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.
Revisit when: New or corrected evidence changes the detector's inputs.
- Disclosed terms
- Proposal account: present · Proposal class: present · Decision threshold: missing · Window timing: present · Proposer stake: missing · Proposer address: present · Execution account: present · Decision market: missing available · partial evidence
Method and evidence
Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution.
Instrument disclosures v1.0.0 · evidence 362de846302a4ed7ba95ceaa1dd54d74f88546b2ad10e7cec061994072f87807
- Trading participation
- 237 observed trades · 20 wallets · $358,255 sized volume · largest wallet 39.0% of sized volume available · complete evidence
Method and evidence
Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants. Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only.
Instrument participation v2.0.0 · evidence 362de846302a4ed7ba95ceaa1dd54d74f88546b2ad10e7cec061994072f87807
- Market reading
- Recorded · challenger lead over the default -16.56% · threshold 3.00% available · complete evidence
Method and evidence
Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.
Instrument market-selection v1.0.0 · evidence 362de846302a4ed7ba95ceaa1dd54d74f88546b2ad10e7cec061994072f87807
- Selection rule
- No special selection terms identified available · complete evidence
Method and evidence
Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics.
Instrument selection-rule v1.0.0 · evidence 362de846302a4ed7ba95ceaa1dd54d74f88546b2ad10e7cec061994072f87807
- Closing stretch
- 2 retained reads · leader unchanged · implied outcome unchanged available · complete evidence
Method and evidence
Retained observations do not establish what happened between reads or why prices changed.
Instrument closing-window v1.0.0 · evidence 362de846302a4ed7ba95ceaa1dd54d74f88546b2ad10e7cec061994072f87807
- Recycled-stake treasury extraction
- HIGH-RISK · 5/5 indicators matched available · complete evidence
Method and evidence
A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.
Instrument recycled-stake-treasury-extraction v1.0.2 · evidence 362de846302a4ed7ba95ceaa1dd54d74f88546b2ad10e7cec061994072f87807
- Late-window TWAP outcome steering
- NO-MATCH · 0/5 indicators matched available · complete evidence
Method and evidence
A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.
Instrument late-window-outcome-steering v3.0.0 · evidence 362de846302a4ed7ba95ceaa1dd54d74f88546b2ad10e7cec061994072f87807
- Wash-volume alignment inflation
- NO-MATCH · 1/5 indicators matched available · complete evidence
Method and evidence
A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.
Instrument wash-volume-alignment-inflation v4.0.0 · evidence 362de846302a4ed7ba95ceaa1dd54d74f88546b2ad10e7cec061994072f87807
- Coordinated multi-wallet stake assembly
- one wallet staked this proposal's launch, and assembly needs at least two Not applicable
Method and evidence
one wallet staked this proposal's launch, and assembly needs at least two
Instrument coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly v3.0.0 · evidence 362de846302a4ed7ba95ceaa1dd54d74f88546b2ad10e7cec061994072f87807
- Earlier decisions
- 3 earlier decisions closed before 2026-08-01T18:32:31.000Z available · complete evidence
Method and evidence
Prior selections are historical context, not an estimate of decision quality.
Instrument prior-decisions v1.0.0 · evidence 362de846302a4ed7ba95ceaa1dd54d74f88546b2ad10e7cec061994072f87807
- Measured outcome
- This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records. Not applicable
Method and evidence
This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.
Instrument measured-outcome v1.0.0 · evidence 362de846302a4ed7ba95ceaa1dd54d74f88546b2ad10e7cec061994072f87807
Evaluated 2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z. Evidence cutoff 2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z.
What was done #
Nothing to execute. The proposal is failed, so nothing was to be executed.
From /data/proposal-execution.json.
What followed #
The organization's token price in USD, from the close ():
- At the close: $0.2798 (read )
- 1 day after: $0.2850 (read )
- 7 days after: $0.2464 (read )
- 30 days after: $0.1946 (read )
From the tape lane solana/spot/umbra; the whole series is at /api/organization-history?slug=umbra&series=price-usd.
Impact #
At the close the market priced Fail (no change) +19.8% against Pass (Final pass and fail TWAPs at finalization (2026-08-03T18:33:03.000Z), normalized conditional prices.). What the token did afterwards:
- 1 day after: +1.9%
- 7 days after: -11.9%
- 30 days after: -30.5%
Two numbers side by side, not a verdict on the decision.
Capital #
The proposal is failed; it authorized no execution, so no capital moved.
From /data/decision-capital.json.
Who acted, and under what authority #
- dao: Umbra —
BLkBSE96kQys7SrMioKxeMiVbeo4Ckk2Y4n1JphKxYnv
This record
IRI https://eidos.software/decisions/metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-8sysa3XPrvKPmUA4qoZCn9h4vp7Mb45Ynezg542nui8Q/, an instance of Decision. Machine-readable: the object view. Built .