Decision · MetaDAO on Solana

Umbra decision 11

Umbra, MetaDAO on Solana. Opened 2026-10-16, closed 2026-10-19.

What it was for #

The market chose among 2 options, judged on time-weighted conditional token price over the window with a -3% threshold:

  • Pass — selected
  • Fail (no change)

Withheld. The proposal's Squads transaction carries no memo text.

What was known #

What the evidence shows

Ask about this decision

The observed prices would select pass: the leading challenger's lead over the default is 0.19%, against a -3.00% threshold. Based on Market reading · derivation.

Limitations: Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.

Revisit when: A new time-weighted price observation or a change to the selection rule.

Disclosed terms
Proposal account: present · Proposal class: present · Decision threshold: present · Window timing: present · Proposer stake: missing · Proposer address: present · Execution account: present · Decision market: present available · partial evidence
Method and evidence

Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution.

Instrument disclosures v1.0.0 · evidence d3fe0175f8de6a2e9ea0662a539e4854166bb3ce487824ef0d5a6fcfba9b920b

Trading participation
5 observed trades · 3 wallets · $1,533.26 sized volume · largest wallet 96.8% of sized volume available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants. Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only.

Instrument participation v2.0.0 · evidence d3fe0175f8de6a2e9ea0662a539e4854166bb3ce487824ef0d5a6fcfba9b920b

Market reading
Provisional · challenger lead over the default 0.19% · threshold -3.00% available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.

Instrument market-selection v1.0.0 · evidence d3fe0175f8de6a2e9ea0662a539e4854166bb3ce487824ef0d5a6fcfba9b920b

Selection rule
Pass wins below fail — threshold ▼ 3.00% · Team class carries the lower bar available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics.

Instrument selection-rule v1.0.0 · evidence d3fe0175f8de6a2e9ea0662a539e4854166bb3ce487824ef0d5a6fcfba9b920b

Closing stretch
23 retained reads · leader unchanged · implied outcome unchanged available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Retained observations do not establish what happened between reads or why prices changed.

Instrument closing-window v1.0.0 · evidence d3fe0175f8de6a2e9ea0662a539e4854166bb3ce487824ef0d5a6fcfba9b920b

Recycled-stake treasury extraction
no wallet staked this proposal's launch Not applicable
Method and evidence

no wallet staked this proposal's launch

Instrument recycled-stake-treasury-extraction v1.0.2 · evidence d3fe0175f8de6a2e9ea0662a539e4854166bb3ce487824ef0d5a6fcfba9b920b

Late-window TWAP outcome steering
needs the closed window's trades and the token's own price after the close, which are read once the window has closed unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence

needs the closed window's trades and the token's own price after the close, which are read once the window has closed

Instrument late-window-outcome-steering v3.0.0 · evidence d3fe0175f8de6a2e9ea0662a539e4854166bb3ce487824ef0d5a6fcfba9b920b

Wash-volume alignment inflation
NO-MATCH · 0/5 indicators matched available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.

Instrument wash-volume-alignment-inflation v4.0.0 · evidence d3fe0175f8de6a2e9ea0662a539e4854166bb3ce487824ef0d5a6fcfba9b920b

Coordinated multi-wallet stake assembly
no wallet staked this proposal's launch, and assembly needs at least two Not applicable
Method and evidence

no wallet staked this proposal's launch, and assembly needs at least two

Instrument coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly v3.0.0 · evidence d3fe0175f8de6a2e9ea0662a539e4854166bb3ce487824ef0d5a6fcfba9b920b

Earlier decisions
7 earlier decisions closed before 2026-10-17T08:56:59.000Z available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Prior selections are historical context, not an estimate of decision quality.

Instrument prior-decisions v1.0.0 · evidence d3fe0175f8de6a2e9ea0662a539e4854166bb3ce487824ef0d5a6fcfba9b920b

Measured outcome
This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records. Not applicable
Method and evidence

This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.

Instrument measured-outcome v1.0.0 · evidence d3fe0175f8de6a2e9ea0662a539e4854166bb3ce487824ef0d5a6fcfba9b920b

Evaluated 2026-10-19T09:12:06.529Z. Evidence cutoff 2026-10-19T09:12:06.529Z.

What was done #

Executed at . The Squads transaction executed, and its calls match the stored vault instructions.

Evidence: RaXZK9xGAwxCa7w5TgkzeR78Mhz97xzEs7N3eNKEAAJ, Hg1NRVwWYV4sDU5YYGsdL6iMrP2YghGW19AMwtvAHkRb, 5bsbaDWtYPJJXV7WLsVrkZ9P4BBWeEToNBp7cNRDFpeh5nMpstj1vUuRNKABhC4pNKBAf5UnfJ6rH9Pg2BH3trmD

From /data/proposal-execution.json.

What followed #

The organization's token price in USD, from the close ():

  • At the close: $0.4232 (read )
  • 1 day after: withheld — Not yet reached: due 2026-10-20T08:56:59.000Z.
  • 7 days after: withheld — Not yet reached: due 2026-10-26T08:56:59.000Z.
  • 30 days after: withheld — Not yet reached: due 2026-11-18T08:56:59.000Z.

From the tape lane solana/spot/umbra; the whole series is at /api/organization-history?slug=umbra&series=price-usd.

Impact #

At the close the market priced Pass +0.2% against Fail (no change) (Final pass and fail TWAPs at finalization (2026-10-19T08:58:01.000Z), normalized conditional prices.). What the token did afterwards:

  • 1 day after: withheld — Not yet reached: due 2026-10-20T08:56:59.000Z.
  • 7 days after: withheld — Not yet reached: due 2026-10-26T08:56:59.000Z.
  • 30 days after: withheld — Not yet reached: due 2026-11-18T08:56:59.000Z.

Two numbers side by side, not a verdict on the decision.

Capital #

What the Squads execute that carried out the decision moved, at every call depth beneath it.

Transaction: 5bsbaDWtYPJJXV7WLsVrkZ9P4BBWeEToNBp7cNRDFpeh5nMpstj1vUuRNKABhC4pNKBAf5UnfJ6rH9Pg2BH3trmD

From /data/decision-capital.json.

Who acted, and under what authority #

This record

IRI https://eidos.software/decisions/metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-D3dbiHmUYceurHbjRZJuUvnRrGgGcHhHDx6LkLVh37E9/, an instance of Decision. Machine-readable: the object view. Built .

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