Decision · MetaDAO on Solana

Areal decision 1

Areal, MetaDAO on Solana. Opened 2026-10-06, closed 2026-10-09.

What it was for #

The market chose among 2 options, judged on time-weighted conditional token price over the window with a 3% threshold:

  • Pass
  • Fail (no change) — selected

ARL-001 Foundation: approve. ARL mint:6JSXRGMH6wNiukuLi4x6rSHazJMQL51WGbzirXxsmeta Mint 74209324 ARL to treasury ATA:AEJCGR459edsytSYDdv9cqFP9YtLCUdv3kjjxAgawp5S Treasury:E45yD8h2ZsJdHFMPdowKvrC6gS9BgrcansUwHDEDokiF Revoke mint authority. Send 20000000 ARL to team ATA:BptY99MekNXWvWcucy1v11FpKFLU6GfQEzBYrFzhpeuw Team:ApDQBVjwy47EAffSehF8k18orUbJaLSURVEdx95bV8oA 10M retrodrop;10M team. Retain 54209324;DAO proposals only. DAO:5BhKSFDV3mNzUxCaAyMZtbakhkbApwzLBD4gnQmNoz3Z Squads:6g3jo62yzqq4ARor3ajoeoSNkVLbxb5uc4uMNKewoLSh

From /data/proposal-text.json.

What was known #

What the evidence shows

Ask about this decision

The recorded prices imply fail: the leading challenger's lead over the default is -6.78%, against a 3.00% threshold. Based on Market reading · derivation.

Limitations: Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.

Revisit when: A correction to the final prices or governing rule.

Disclosed terms
Proposal account: present · Proposal class: present · Decision threshold: missing · Window timing: present · Proposer stake: missing · Proposer address: present · Execution account: present · Decision market: missing available · partial evidence
Method and evidence

Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution.

Instrument disclosures v1.0.0 · evidence adb65dbd33c67bcf34f387f80fae7fed94c2dc1a05e68d75c61ee4d334467ee3

Trading participation
97 observed trades · 7 wallets · $5,552.09 sized volume · largest wallet 46.7% of sized volume available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants. Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only.

Instrument participation v2.0.0 · evidence adb65dbd33c67bcf34f387f80fae7fed94c2dc1a05e68d75c61ee4d334467ee3

Market reading
Recorded · challenger lead over the default -6.78% · threshold 3.00% available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.

Instrument market-selection v1.0.0 · evidence adb65dbd33c67bcf34f387f80fae7fed94c2dc1a05e68d75c61ee4d334467ee3

Selection rule
No special selection terms identified available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics.

Instrument selection-rule v1.0.0 · evidence adb65dbd33c67bcf34f387f80fae7fed94c2dc1a05e68d75c61ee4d334467ee3

Closing stretch
24 retained reads · leader unchanged · implied outcome unchanged available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Retained observations do not establish what happened between reads or why prices changed.

Instrument closing-window v1.0.0 · evidence adb65dbd33c67bcf34f387f80fae7fed94c2dc1a05e68d75c61ee4d334467ee3

Recycled-stake treasury extraction
the proposer staked 833,324.267 tokens, of which 833,323.333 came by transfer from another wallet (GK65HvfFAYzNbDaYgS71kKaqEHjU1aH9UVdmVjKhApg sent the most); how that wallet acquired them is not read unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence

the proposer staked 833,324.267 tokens, of which 833,323.333 came by transfer from another wallet (GK65HvfFAYzNbDaYgS71kKaqEHjU1aH9UVdmVjKhApg sent the most); how that wallet acquired them is not read

Instrument recycled-stake-treasury-extraction v1.0.2 · evidence adb65dbd33c67bcf34f387f80fae7fed94c2dc1a05e68d75c61ee4d334467ee3

Late-window TWAP outcome steering
the trades rebuild a pass edge of 9.50% against the printed -6.78%, more than 1 point apart, so the window's weights cannot be read from them unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence

the trades rebuild a pass edge of 9.50% against the printed -6.78%, more than 1 point apart, so the window's weights cannot be read from them

Instrument late-window-outcome-steering v3.0.0 · evidence adb65dbd33c67bcf34f387f80fae7fed94c2dc1a05e68d75c61ee4d334467ee3

Wash-volume alignment inflation
NO-MATCH · 0/5 indicators matched available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.

Instrument wash-volume-alignment-inflation v4.0.0 · evidence adb65dbd33c67bcf34f387f80fae7fed94c2dc1a05e68d75c61ee4d334467ee3

Coordinated multi-wallet stake assembly
NO-MATCH · 1/5 indicators matched available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.

Instrument coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly v3.0.0 · evidence adb65dbd33c67bcf34f387f80fae7fed94c2dc1a05e68d75c61ee4d334467ee3

Earlier decisions
0 earlier decisions closed before 2026-10-06T13:23:18.000Z available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Prior selections are historical context, not an estimate of decision quality.

Instrument prior-decisions v1.0.0 · evidence adb65dbd33c67bcf34f387f80fae7fed94c2dc1a05e68d75c61ee4d334467ee3

Measured outcome
This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records. Not applicable
Method and evidence

This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.

Instrument measured-outcome v1.0.0 · evidence adb65dbd33c67bcf34f387f80fae7fed94c2dc1a05e68d75c61ee4d334467ee3

Evaluated 2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z. Evidence cutoff 2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z.

What was done #

Nothing to execute. The proposal is failed, so nothing was to be executed.

From /data/proposal-execution.json.

What followed #

The organization's token price in USD, from the close ():

  • At the close: $0.002572 (read )
  • 1 day after: $0.002233 (read )
  • 7 days after: $0.002421 (read )
  • 30 days after: withheld — Not yet reached: due 2026-11-08T13:23:18.000Z.

From the tape lane solana/spot/areal-finance; the whole series is at /api/organization-history?slug=areal-finance&series=price-usd.

Impact #

At the close the market priced Fail (no change) +7.3% against Pass (Final pass and fail TWAPs at finalization (2026-10-09T13:24:01.000Z), normalized conditional prices.). What the token did afterwards:

  • 1 day after: -13.2%
  • 7 days after: -5.8%
  • 30 days after: withheld — Not yet reached: due 2026-11-08T13:23:18.000Z.

Two numbers side by side, not a verdict on the decision.

Capital #

The proposal is failed; it authorized no execution, so no capital moved.

From /data/decision-capital.json.

Who acted, and under what authority #

This record

IRI https://eidos.software/decisions/metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-GEceJFcxQtY2epA6hp4zvjTr94umRRQvd9Tb2czngmEm/, an instance of Decision. Machine-readable: the object view. Built .

All decisions