Decision · MetaDAO on Solana

Loyal decision 2

Loyal, MetaDAO on Solana. Opened 2025-12-23, closed 2025-12-26.

What it was for #

The market chose among 2 options, judged on time-weighted conditional token price over the window with a 1.5% threshold:

  • Pass — selected
  • Fail (no change)

Withheld. The proposal's Squads transaction carries no memo text.

What was known #

What the evidence shows

Ask about this decision

The recorded prices imply pass: the leading challenger's lead over the default is 5.07%, against a 1.50% threshold. Based on Market reading · derivation.

Limitations: Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.

Revisit when: A correction to the final prices or governing rule.

wash-volume-alignment-inflation matched 2 of 5 indicators (WATCH). Based on Wash-volume alignment inflation · derivation.

Limitations: A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.

Revisit when: New or corrected evidence changes the detector's inputs.

Disclosed terms
Proposal account: present · Proposal class: present · Decision threshold: missing · Window timing: present · Proposer stake: missing · Proposer address: present · Execution account: present · Decision market: missing available · partial evidence
Method and evidence

Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution.

Instrument disclosures v1.0.0 · evidence 01b19be3893b7a90ebc0545dec13e5138a6f4a05341dca87284d890762a17081

Trading participation
193 observed trades · 12 wallets · $115,180.76 sized volume · largest wallet 51.7% of sized volume available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants. Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only.

Instrument participation v2.0.0 · evidence 01b19be3893b7a90ebc0545dec13e5138a6f4a05341dca87284d890762a17081

Market reading
Recorded · challenger lead over the default 5.07% · threshold 1.50% available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.

Instrument market-selection v1.0.0 · evidence 01b19be3893b7a90ebc0545dec13e5138a6f4a05341dca87284d890762a17081

Selection rule
No special selection terms identified available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics.

Instrument selection-rule v1.0.0 · evidence 01b19be3893b7a90ebc0545dec13e5138a6f4a05341dca87284d890762a17081

Closing stretch
fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence

fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch

Instrument closing-window v1.0.0 · evidence 01b19be3893b7a90ebc0545dec13e5138a6f4a05341dca87284d890762a17081

Recycled-stake treasury extraction
it made 3203 transactions in the 30 days before launch, more than the 400 read for bridged funding unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence

it made 3203 transactions in the 30 days before launch, more than the 400 read for bridged funding

Instrument recycled-stake-treasury-extraction v1.0.2 · evidence 01b19be3893b7a90ebc0545dec13e5138a6f4a05341dca87284d890762a17081

Late-window TWAP outcome steering
NO-MATCH · 0/5 indicators matched available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.

Instrument late-window-outcome-steering v3.0.0 · evidence 01b19be3893b7a90ebc0545dec13e5138a6f4a05341dca87284d890762a17081

Wash-volume alignment inflation
WATCH · 2/5 indicators matched available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.

Instrument wash-volume-alignment-inflation v4.0.0 · evidence 01b19be3893b7a90ebc0545dec13e5138a6f4a05341dca87284d890762a17081

Coordinated multi-wallet stake assembly
NO-MATCH · 0/5 indicators matched available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.

Instrument coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly v3.0.0 · evidence 01b19be3893b7a90ebc0545dec13e5138a6f4a05341dca87284d890762a17081

Earlier decisions
1 earlier decisions closed before 2025-12-24T12:55:27.000Z available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Prior selections are historical context, not an estimate of decision quality.

Instrument prior-decisions v1.0.0 · evidence 01b19be3893b7a90ebc0545dec13e5138a6f4a05341dca87284d890762a17081

Measured outcome
This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records. Not applicable
Method and evidence

This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.

Instrument measured-outcome v1.0.0 · evidence 01b19be3893b7a90ebc0545dec13e5138a6f4a05341dca87284d890762a17081

Evaluated 2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z. Evidence cutoff 2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z.

What was done #

Executed at . The Squads transaction executed, and its calls match the stored vault instructions.

Evidence: DjNxCwBi4Mq1nhMHLYccMCbZqxXDXYTMzzFnR2daLTi9, HhZbdThLdEhKwREDgwvecdNK6kY4LrFEkhrnhYddRWC, 5PT8j2urPSGUF2XSELhSNnebRj2cTnQzhwGQzE6JEFmHNueEf1h7y3ZmEy3hLNiQf4CBhUWTJrYov1MqPYsCcTw2

From /data/proposal-execution.json.

What followed #

The organization's token price in USD, from the close ():

  • At the close: $0.2373 (read )
  • 1 day after: $0.2446 (read )
  • 7 days after: $0.2371 (read )
  • 30 days after: $0.1893 (read )

From the tape lane solana/spot/loyal; the whole series is at /api/organization-history?slug=loyal&series=price-usd.

Impact #

At the close the market priced Pass +5.1% against Fail (no change) (Final pass and fail TWAPs at finalization (2025-12-26T12:56:05.000Z), normalized conditional prices.). What the token did afterwards:

  • 1 day after: +3.1%
  • 7 days after: -0.1%
  • 30 days after: -20.2%

Two numbers side by side, not a verdict on the decision.

Capital #

What the Squads execute that carried out the decision moved, at every call depth beneath it.

Transaction: 5PT8j2urPSGUF2XSELhSNnebRj2cTnQzhwGQzE6JEFmHNueEf1h7y3ZmEy3hLNiQf4CBhUWTJrYov1MqPYsCcTw2

From /data/decision-capital.json.

Who acted, and under what authority #

This record

IRI https://eidos.software/decisions/metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-GXdWao4Cy6EsvvS9atMb1kCPEAFwPXBe5kKCeLDtRJNm/, an instance of Decision. Machine-readable: the object view. Built .

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