Decision · Umia on Base

Put the treasury capital to work in yield on Base?

venture 7, Umia on Base. Opened 2026-09-17, closed 2026-09-19; the market drew 53 traders.

What it was for #

The market chose among 4 options, judged on time-weighted conditional token price over the trading window with a 2% threshold:

  • no-op (no change)
  • Full deployment: 50/50 on Aave & Steakhouse — selected
  • Full deployment: Aave & Gauntlet + Steakhouse
  • Half deployment: Aave & Steakhouse

no-op

Full deployment: 50/50 on Aave & Steakhouse

Full deployment: Aave & Gauntlet + Steakhouse

Half deployment: Aave & Steakhouse

From /data/umia-decisions.json.

What was known #

What the evidence shows

Ask about this decision

Disclosed terms
Market: present · Options: present · Selection rule: present · Window timing: present · Question: present · Execution: present available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution.

Instrument disclosures v1.0.0 · evidence d1f2b10aeeaf2afda39a7e13c872df5122ba0fa8aa80790422a7fd8a21b60c91

Trading participation
209 observed trades · 53 wallets · $231,326.01 sized volume · largest wallet 59.8% of sized volume available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants. Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only.

Instrument participation v2.0.0 · evidence d1f2b10aeeaf2afda39a7e13c872df5122ba0fa8aa80790422a7fd8a21b60c91

Market reading
One or more options have no time-weighted price. unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence

One or more options have no time-weighted price.

Instrument market-selection v1.0.0 · evidence d1f2b10aeeaf2afda39a7e13c872df5122ba0fa8aa80790422a7fd8a21b60c91

Selection rule
No special selection terms identified available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics.

Instrument selection-rule v1.0.0 · evidence d1f2b10aeeaf2afda39a7e13c872df5122ba0fa8aa80790422a7fd8a21b60c91

Closing stretch
fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence

fewer than 2 priced reads inside the closing stretch

Instrument closing-window v1.0.0 · evidence d1f2b10aeeaf2afda39a7e13c872df5122ba0fa8aa80790422a7fd8a21b60c91

Recycled-stake treasury extraction
Umia asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble Not applicable
Method and evidence

Umia asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble

Instrument recycled-stake-treasury-extraction v1.0.2 · evidence d1f2b10aeeaf2afda39a7e13c872df5122ba0fa8aa80790422a7fd8a21b60c91

Late-window TWAP outcome steering
this market selects among 4 options, and the late-window playbook reads one challenger's edge over the default Not applicable
Method and evidence

this market selects among 4 options, and the late-window playbook reads one challenger's edge over the default

Instrument late-window-outcome-steering v3.0.0 · evidence d1f2b10aeeaf2afda39a7e13c872df5122ba0fa8aa80790422a7fd8a21b60c91

Wash-volume alignment inflation
NO-MATCH · 0/5 indicators matched available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.

Instrument wash-volume-alignment-inflation v4.0.0 · evidence d1f2b10aeeaf2afda39a7e13c872df5122ba0fa8aa80790422a7fd8a21b60c91

Coordinated multi-wallet stake assembly
Umia asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble Not applicable
Method and evidence

Umia asks no stake of whoever puts a decision to its market, so there is no stake to recycle or assemble

Instrument coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly v3.0.0 · evidence d1f2b10aeeaf2afda39a7e13c872df5122ba0fa8aa80790422a7fd8a21b60c91

Earlier decisions
0 earlier decisions closed before 2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Prior selections are historical context, not an estimate of decision quality.

Instrument prior-decisions v1.0.0 · evidence d1f2b10aeeaf2afda39a7e13c872df5122ba0fa8aa80790422a7fd8a21b60c91

Measured outcome
This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records. Not applicable
Method and evidence

This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.

Instrument measured-outcome v1.0.0 · evidence d1f2b10aeeaf2afda39a7e13c872df5122ba0fa8aa80790422a7fd8a21b60c91

Evaluated 2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z. Evidence cutoff 2026-10-19T04:56:02.804Z.

What was done #

Executed. Umia's market core records the winning proposal's payload as executed.

From /data/engine-execution.json.

What followed #

The organization's token price in USD, from the close ():

  • At the close: withheld — The price lane for this token begins 2026-10-02T14:30:15.553Z, after this checkpoint; no earlier reading is on the record.
  • 1 day after: withheld — The price lane for this token begins 2026-10-02T14:30:15.553Z, after this checkpoint; no earlier reading is on the record.
  • 7 days after: withheld — The price lane for this token begins 2026-10-02T14:30:15.553Z, after this checkpoint; no earlier reading is on the record.
  • 30 days after: withheld — Not yet reached: the checkpoint's window is open until 2026-10-20T13:00:00.000Z.

From the tape lane base/token-spot/0x56ab53b77f07da3af732150e8aec4783eb5bba7d.

Impact #

At the close the market priced Full deployment: 50/50 on Aave & Steakhouse +6.8% against no-op (The winner's time-weighted price over the no-op's at settlement, from the MarketSettled event.). What the token did afterwards:

  • 1 day after: withheld — The price lane for this token begins 2026-10-02T14:30:15.553Z, after this checkpoint; no earlier reading is on the record.
  • 7 days after: withheld — The price lane for this token begins 2026-10-02T14:30:15.553Z, after this checkpoint; no earlier reading is on the record.
  • 30 days after: withheld — Not yet reached: the checkpoint's window is open until 2026-10-20T13:00:00.000Z.

Two numbers side by side, not a verdict on the decision.

Capital #

Withheld. Umia's market core records the winning payload as executed but names no transaction, so what it moved is not read.

Who acted, and under what authority #

No acting party is named by the sources.

This record

IRI https://eidos.software/decisions/umia-base-3/, an instance of Decision. Machine-readable: the object view. Built .

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