Decision · MetaDAO on Solana

Umbra: Budget Increase Proposal (V2 Launch)

Umbra, MetaDAO on Solana. Opened 2026-10-20, closed 2026-10-23.

What it was for #

The market chose among 2 options, judged on time-weighted conditional token price over the window with a -3% threshold:

Pass — selected
Fail (no change)

Withheld. The proposal's Squads transaction carries no memo text.

What was known #

What the evidence shows

Ask about this decision

The recorded prices imply pass: the leading challenger's lead over the default is 0.16%, against a -3.00% threshold. Based on Market reading · derivation.

Limitations: Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.

Revisit when: A correction to the final prices or governing rule.

Disclosed terms: Proposal account: present · Proposal class: present · Decision threshold: present · Window timing: present · Proposer stake: missing · Proposer address: present · Execution account: present · Decision market: missing available · partial evidence
Method and evidence
Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution.
Instrument disclosures v1.0.1 · evidence 9156e27afa83baecd0b077ec2122f815408181237e674b6d10770cfd10ccf1f4
Trading participation: 4 observed trades · 3 wallets · $342.25 sized volume · largest wallet 80.1% of sized volume available · complete evidence
Method and evidence
Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants. Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only.
Instrument participation v2.0.0 · evidence 9156e27afa83baecd0b077ec2122f815408181237e674b6d10770cfd10ccf1f4
Market reading: Recorded · challenger lead over the default 0.16% · threshold -3.00% available · complete evidence
Method and evidence
Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.
Instrument market-selection v1.0.0 · evidence 9156e27afa83baecd0b077ec2122f815408181237e674b6d10770cfd10ccf1f4
Selection rule: Pass wins below fail — threshold ▼ 3.00% · Team class carries the lower bar available · complete evidence
Method and evidence
Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics.
Instrument selection-rule v1.0.0 · evidence 9156e27afa83baecd0b077ec2122f815408181237e674b6d10770cfd10ccf1f4
Closing stretch: 24 retained reads · leader unchanged · implied outcome unchanged available · complete evidence
Method and evidence
Retained observations do not establish what happened between reads or why prices changed.
Instrument closing-window v1.0.0 · evidence 9156e27afa83baecd0b077ec2122f815408181237e674b6d10770cfd10ccf1f4
Recycled-stake treasury extraction: no wallet staked this proposal's launch Not applicable
Method and evidence
no wallet staked this proposal's launch
Instrument recycled-stake-treasury-extraction v1.0.3 · evidence 9156e27afa83baecd0b077ec2122f815408181237e674b6d10770cfd10ccf1f4
Late-window TWAP outcome steering: a pool has no priced trade, so its price path cannot be rebuilt unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence
a pool has no priced trade, so its price path cannot be rebuilt
Instrument late-window-outcome-steering v3.0.0 · evidence 9156e27afa83baecd0b077ec2122f815408181237e674b6d10770cfd10ccf1f4
Wash-volume alignment inflation: NO-MATCH · 0/5 indicators matched available · complete evidence
Method and evidence
A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.
Instrument wash-volume-alignment-inflation v4.0.0 · evidence 9156e27afa83baecd0b077ec2122f815408181237e674b6d10770cfd10ccf1f4
Coordinated multi-wallet stake assembly: no wallet staked this proposal's launch, and assembly needs at least two Not applicable
Method and evidence
no wallet staked this proposal's launch, and assembly needs at least two
Instrument coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly v3.0.0 · evidence 9156e27afa83baecd0b077ec2122f815408181237e674b6d10770cfd10ccf1f4
Earlier decisions: 8 earlier decisions closed before 2026-10-21T22:28:52.000Z available · complete evidence
Method and evidence
Prior selections are historical context, not an estimate of decision quality.
Instrument prior-decisions v1.0.0 · evidence 9156e27afa83baecd0b077ec2122f815408181237e674b6d10770cfd10ccf1f4
Measured outcome: This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records. Not applicable
Method and evidence
This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.
Instrument measured-outcome v1.0.0 · evidence 9156e27afa83baecd0b077ec2122f815408181237e674b6d10770cfd10ccf1f4

Evaluated 2026-11-02T06:06:37.129Z. Evidence cutoff 2026-11-02T06:06:37.129Z.

What was done #

Executed at 2026-10-27 16:48:25 UTC. The Squads transaction executed, and its calls match the stored vault instructions.

Evidence: 3518jGe9XoXiSW7YejUmnYLwZuwKZbx6wspSP7YdLMPM, 94MKMscmyyvHnoxSWkPQCANdWGpp8e9xvWHAySmDhVTd, 4CbDxocathyhoRAm1wFiU2TGTH7fRkvDYrHHVUmYnRrcHCVm3Ygp96msaZC7TNitGQTuKVCviqdVzAE3Pxy6mKjB

From /data/proposal-execution.json.

What followed #

The organization's token price in USD, from the close (2026-10-23 22:28:52 UTC):

At the close: $0.4897 (read 2026-10-23 22:15:12 UTC)
1 day after: $0.4909 (read 2026-10-24 22:30:16 UTC)
7 days after: $0.4421 (read 2026-10-30 22:30:15 UTC)
30 days after: withheld — Not yet reached: due 2026-11-22T22:28:52.000Z.

From the tape lane solana/spot/umbra; the whole series is at /api/organization-history?slug=umbra&series=price-usd.

Impact #

At the close the market priced Pass +0.2% against Fail (no change) (Final pass and fail TWAPs at finalization (2026-10-23T22:29:00.000Z), normalized conditional prices.). What the token did afterwards:

1 day after: +0.3%
7 days after: -9.7%
30 days after: withheld — Not yet reached: due 2026-11-22T22:28:52.000Z.

Two numbers side by side, not a verdict on the decision.

Capital #

Executed; no asset moved: the execution made no token transfer, mint or burn and no SOL transfer (account-creation rent is not counted).

Transaction: 4CbDxocathyhoRAm1wFiU2TGTH7fRkvDYrHHVUmYnRrcHCVm3Ygp96msaZC7TNitGQTuKVCviqdVzAE3Pxy6mKjB

From /data/decision-capital.json.

Who acted, and under what authority #

proposer: BvjhiNkk7hZBoEKkGKKCLCxMGnUJpoJVrUhv8nz8zXMT

dao: Umbra — BLkBSE96kQys7SrMioKxeMiVbeo4Ckk2Y4n1JphKxYnv

As known at the close #

Every row of the record carries the time Eidos learned it. Read this decision as Eidos knew it at the close, 2026-10-23 22:28:52 UTC, beside what this page says today. A part learned after the close, or one the record stores no knowledge time for, is withheld by name, never backfilled.

This record

IRI https://eidos.software/decisions/metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-13baNpxYCRjSdrVSBpQuzqqtoDtW1hAXm9kRszZK2dY2/, an instance of Decision. Machine-readable: the object view. Built 2026-11-02 23:48:50 UTC.

Cite this decision #

Eidos. "Umbra: Budget Increase Proposal (V2 Launch)." Umbra on MetaDAO, closed 2026-10-23. Decision record, https://eidos.software/decisions/metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-13baNpxYCRjSdrVSBpQuzqqtoDtW1hAXm9kRszZK2dY2/ (retrieved 2026-11-03).

Markdown: Eidos. [Umbra: Budget Increase Proposal (V2 Launch)](https://eidos.software/decisions/metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-13baNpxYCRjSdrVSBpQuzqqtoDtW1hAXm9kRszZK2dY2/). Umbra on MetaDAO, closed 2026-10-23. Decision record, retrieved 2026-11-03.

The address is the decision's IRI and does not change. The record is as of 2026-11-02 23:48:50 UTC. To cite one part, add its anchor to the address: #what-it-was-for, #what-was-known, #what-was-done, #what-followed, #impact, #capital, #parties. How to cite · Corrections

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