Decision · MetaDAO on Solana

HiveBits decision 3

HiveBits, MetaDAO on Solana. Opened 2026-10-31, closed 2026-11-03.

What it was for #

The market chose among 2 options, judged on time-weighted conditional token price over the window with a -3% threshold:

  • Pass — selected
  • Fail (no change)

Withheld. The proposal's Squads transaction carries no memo text.

What was known #

What the evidence shows

Ask about this decision

The observed prices would select pass: the leading challenger's lead over the default is 3.61%, against a -3.00% threshold. Based on Market reading · derivation.

Limitations: Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.

Revisit when: A new time-weighted price observation or a change to the selection rule.

Disclosed terms
Proposal account: present · Proposal class: present · Decision threshold: present · Window timing: present · Proposer stake: missing · Proposer address: present · Execution account: present · Decision market: present available · partial evidence
Method and evidence

Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution.

Instrument disclosures v1.0.1 · evidence 62a804a1303a90e11471721420e9ccac369eeb428f63c3fe430f52c758435292

Trading participation
251 observed trades · 16 wallets · $49,943.47 sized volume · largest wallet 45.0% of sized volume available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants. Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only.

Instrument participation v2.0.0 · evidence 62a804a1303a90e11471721420e9ccac369eeb428f63c3fe430f52c758435292

Market reading
Provisional · challenger lead over the default 3.61% · threshold -3.00% available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.

Instrument market-selection v1.0.0 · evidence 62a804a1303a90e11471721420e9ccac369eeb428f63c3fe430f52c758435292

Selection rule
Pass wins below fail — threshold ▼ 3.00% · Team class carries the lower bar available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics.

Instrument selection-rule v1.0.0 · evidence 62a804a1303a90e11471721420e9ccac369eeb428f63c3fe430f52c758435292

Closing stretch
24 retained reads · leader unchanged · implied outcome unchanged available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Retained observations do not establish what happened between reads or why prices changed.

Instrument closing-window v1.0.0 · evidence 62a804a1303a90e11471721420e9ccac369eeb428f63c3fe430f52c758435292

Recycled-stake treasury extraction
no wallet staked this proposal's launch Not applicable
Method and evidence

no wallet staked this proposal's launch

Instrument recycled-stake-treasury-extraction v1.0.3 · evidence 62a804a1303a90e11471721420e9ccac369eeb428f63c3fe430f52c758435292

Late-window TWAP outcome steering
needs the closed window's trades and the token's own price after the close, which are read once the window has closed unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence

needs the closed window's trades and the token's own price after the close, which are read once the window has closed

Instrument late-window-outcome-steering v3.0.0 · evidence 62a804a1303a90e11471721420e9ccac369eeb428f63c3fe430f52c758435292

Wash-volume alignment inflation
NO-MATCH · 0/5 indicators matched available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.

Instrument wash-volume-alignment-inflation v4.0.0 · evidence 62a804a1303a90e11471721420e9ccac369eeb428f63c3fe430f52c758435292

Coordinated multi-wallet stake assembly
no wallet staked this proposal's launch, and assembly needs at least two Not applicable
Method and evidence

no wallet staked this proposal's launch, and assembly needs at least two

Instrument coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly v3.0.0 · evidence 62a804a1303a90e11471721420e9ccac369eeb428f63c3fe430f52c758435292

Earlier decisions
1 earlier decisions closed before 2026-11-01T00:08:03.000Z available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Prior selections are historical context, not an estimate of decision quality.

Instrument prior-decisions v1.0.0 · evidence 62a804a1303a90e11471721420e9ccac369eeb428f63c3fe430f52c758435292

Measured outcome
This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records. Not applicable
Method and evidence

This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.

Instrument measured-outcome v1.0.0 · evidence 62a804a1303a90e11471721420e9ccac369eeb428f63c3fe430f52c758435292

Evaluated 2026-11-03T00:13:20.987Z. Evidence cutoff 2026-11-03T00:13:20.987Z.

What was done #

Executed at . The Squads transaction executed, and its calls match the stored vault instructions.

Evidence: 8yPMqXDvAP7T3SufJL8EW5TbLHpGoRd6DoyK7oJFHUF, 3qDfK9eFkUxcE57XkSqMiYrbG6QhYqEfwzS2MxhaDpNr, 4hezwn5emL6aBCdT175XKArWEibE4Z583FwRCgeL6u9amYm7H5bRYwx5PkWQsTPJygL7zGGcPBK2Ya7pVFb7ttWo

From /data/proposal-execution.json.

What followed #

The organization's token price in USD, from the close ():

  • At the close: withheld — No price reading within an hour before the close.
  • 1 day after: withheld — Not yet reached: due 2026-11-04T00:08:03.000Z.
  • 7 days after: withheld — Not yet reached: due 2026-11-10T00:08:03.000Z.
  • 30 days after: withheld — Not yet reached: due 2026-12-03T00:08:03.000Z.

From the tape lane solana-mainnet-beta/token-spot/CMFmrTNfNEYNnauug1mi2LMkghaVT3Sx6CxJ8xLcmeta.

Impact #

At the close the market priced Pass +3.6% against Fail (no change) (Final pass and fail TWAPs at finalization (2026-11-03T00:09:01.000Z), normalized conditional prices.). What the token did afterwards:

  • 1 day after: withheld — Not yet reached: due 2026-11-04T00:08:03.000Z.
  • 7 days after: withheld — Not yet reached: due 2026-11-10T00:08:03.000Z.
  • 30 days after: withheld — Not yet reached: due 2026-12-03T00:08:03.000Z.

Two numbers side by side, not a verdict on the decision.

Capital #

Executed; no asset moved: the execution made no token transfer, mint or burn and no SOL transfer (account-creation rent is not counted).

Transaction: 4hezwn5emL6aBCdT175XKArWEibE4Z583FwRCgeL6u9amYm7H5bRYwx5PkWQsTPJygL7zGGcPBK2Ya7pVFb7ttWo

From /data/decision-capital.json.

Who acted, and under what authority #

As known at the close #

Every row of the record carries the time Eidos learned it. Read this decision as Eidos knew it at the close, , beside what this page says today. A part learned after the close, or one the record stores no knowledge time for, is withheld by name, never backfilled.

This record

IRI https://eidos.software/decisions/metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-5X8q6HHz7f3i66wfUMLxKcyWLeA82Nx5UHo1jzpZNbAN/, an instance of Decision. Machine-readable: the object view. Built .

Cite this decision #

Eidos. "HiveBits decision 3." HiveBits on MetaDAO, closed 2026-11-03. Decision record, https://eidos.software/decisions/metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-5X8q6HHz7f3i66wfUMLxKcyWLeA82Nx5UHo1jzpZNbAN/ (retrieved 2026-11-03).

Markdown: Eidos. [HiveBits decision 3](https://eidos.software/decisions/metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-5X8q6HHz7f3i66wfUMLxKcyWLeA82Nx5UHo1jzpZNbAN/). HiveBits on MetaDAO, closed 2026-11-03. Decision record, retrieved 2026-11-03.

The address is the decision's IRI and does not change. The record is as of . To cite one part, add its anchor to the address: #what-it-was-for, #what-was-known, #what-was-done, #what-followed, #impact, #capital, #parties. How to cite · Corrections

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