Decision · MetaDAO on Solana

HiveBits decision 1

HiveBits, MetaDAO on Solana. Opened 2026-10-28, closed 2026-10-31.

What it was for #

The market chose among 2 options, judged on time-weighted conditional token price over the window with a 3% threshold:

  • Pass
  • Fail (no change) — selected

Withheld. The proposal's Squads transaction carries no memo text.

What was known #

What the evidence shows

Ask about this decision

The recorded prices imply fail: the leading challenger's lead over the default is -2.37%, against a 3.00% threshold. Based on Market reading · derivation.

Limitations: Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.

Revisit when: A correction to the final prices or governing rule.

coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly matched 2 of 5 indicators (WATCH). Based on Coordinated multi-wallet stake assembly · derivation.

Limitations: A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.

Revisit when: New or corrected evidence changes the detector's inputs.

Disclosed terms
Proposal account: present · Proposal class: present · Decision threshold: present · Window timing: present · Proposer stake: missing · Proposer address: present · Execution account: present · Decision market: missing available · partial evidence
Method and evidence

Presence of a disclosed term does not verify its truth or execution.

Instrument disclosures v1.0.1 · evidence 3eb16aa799a926d919c6f603b891fe03451847b10fdec767eaa85c6515682dd3

Trading participation
21 observed trades · 6 wallets · $766.25 sized volume · largest wallet 85.9% of sized volume available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Wallets are addresses, not identified independent participants. Volume and concentration cover dollar-sized observed trades only.

Instrument participation v2.0.0 · evidence 3eb16aa799a926d919c6f603b891fe03451847b10fdec767eaa85c6515682dd3

Market reading
Recorded · challenger lead over the default -2.37% · threshold 3.00% available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Conditional prices are not probabilities of passage or evidence of causal impact.

Instrument market-selection v1.0.0 · evidence 3eb16aa799a926d919c6f603b891fe03451847b10fdec767eaa85c6515682dd3

Selection rule
No special selection terms identified available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Semantic observations describe disclosed terms only — never an attack finding, an indicator, or a classification. Monitored playbooks stay withheld without indexed forensics.

Instrument selection-rule v1.0.0 · evidence 3eb16aa799a926d919c6f603b891fe03451847b10fdec767eaa85c6515682dd3

Closing stretch
24 retained reads · leader unchanged · implied outcome unchanged available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Retained observations do not establish what happened between reads or why prices changed.

Instrument closing-window v1.0.0 · evidence 3eb16aa799a926d919c6f603b891fe03451847b10fdec767eaa85c6515682dd3

Recycled-stake treasury extraction
it made 578 transactions in the 30 days before launch, more than the 400 read for bridged funding unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence

it made 578 transactions in the 30 days before launch, more than the 400 read for bridged funding

Instrument recycled-stake-treasury-extraction v1.0.3 · evidence 3eb16aa799a926d919c6f603b891fe03451847b10fdec767eaa85c6515682dd3

Late-window TWAP outcome steering
the trades rebuild a pass edge of -1.30% against the printed -2.37%, more than 1 point apart, so the window's weights cannot be read from them unavailable · unknown evidence
Method and evidence

the trades rebuild a pass edge of -1.30% against the printed -2.37%, more than 1 point apart, so the window's weights cannot be read from them

Instrument late-window-outcome-steering v3.0.0 · evidence 3eb16aa799a926d919c6f603b891fe03451847b10fdec767eaa85c6515682dd3

Wash-volume alignment inflation
NO-MATCH · 0/5 indicators matched available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.

Instrument wash-volume-alignment-inflation v4.0.0 · evidence 3eb16aa799a926d919c6f603b891fe03451847b10fdec767eaa85c6515682dd3

Coordinated multi-wallet stake assembly
WATCH · 2/5 indicators matched available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

A pattern match does not establish intent; a no-match does not establish safety.

Instrument coordinated-multiwallet-stake-assembly v3.0.0 · evidence 3eb16aa799a926d919c6f603b891fe03451847b10fdec767eaa85c6515682dd3

Earlier decisions
0 earlier decisions closed before 2026-10-28T00:07:51.000Z available · complete evidence
Method and evidence

Prior selections are historical context, not an estimate of decision quality.

Instrument prior-decisions v1.0.0 · evidence 3eb16aa799a926d919c6f603b891fe03451847b10fdec767eaa85c6515682dd3

Measured outcome
This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records. Not applicable
Method and evidence

This instrument reads measured-outcome resolution records.

Instrument measured-outcome v1.0.0 · evidence 3eb16aa799a926d919c6f603b891fe03451847b10fdec767eaa85c6515682dd3

Evaluated 2026-11-02T06:06:37.129Z. Evidence cutoff 2026-11-02T06:06:37.129Z.

What was done #

Nothing to execute. The proposal is failed, so nothing was to be executed.

From /data/proposal-execution.json.

What followed #

The organization's token price in USD, from the close ():

  • At the close: $0.008165 (read )
  • 1 day after: withheld — No price reading within 3 hours of the checkpoint.
  • 7 days after: withheld — Not yet reached: due 2026-11-07T00:07:51.000Z.
  • 30 days after: withheld — Not yet reached: due 2026-11-30T00:07:51.000Z.

From the tape lane solana-mainnet-beta/token-spot/CMFmrTNfNEYNnauug1mi2LMkghaVT3Sx6CxJ8xLcmeta.

Impact #

At the close the market priced Fail (no change) +2.4% against Pass (Final pass and fail TWAPs at finalization (2026-10-31T00:08:00.000Z), normalized conditional prices.). What the token did afterwards:

  • 1 day after: withheld — No price reading within 3 hours of the checkpoint.
  • 7 days after: withheld — Not yet reached: due 2026-11-07T00:07:51.000Z.
  • 30 days after: withheld — Not yet reached: due 2026-11-30T00:07:51.000Z.

Two numbers side by side, not a verdict on the decision.

Capital #

The proposal is failed; it authorized no execution, so no capital moved.

From /data/decision-capital.json.

Who acted, and under what authority #

As known at the close #

Every row of the record carries the time Eidos learned it. Read this decision as Eidos knew it at the close, , beside what this page says today. A part learned after the close, or one the record stores no knowledge time for, is withheld by name, never backfilled.

This record

IRI https://eidos.software/decisions/metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-DxARjjgB2ug25qicWHLqnJLwb1HyChQaMAP3PS3GibDT/, an instance of Decision. Machine-readable: the object view. Built .

Cite this decision #

Eidos. "HiveBits decision 1." HiveBits on MetaDAO, closed 2026-10-31. Decision record, https://eidos.software/decisions/metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-DxARjjgB2ug25qicWHLqnJLwb1HyChQaMAP3PS3GibDT/ (retrieved 2026-11-03).

Markdown: Eidos. [HiveBits decision 1](https://eidos.software/decisions/metadao-solana-mainnet-beta-DxARjjgB2ug25qicWHLqnJLwb1HyChQaMAP3PS3GibDT/). HiveBits on MetaDAO, closed 2026-10-31. Decision record, retrieved 2026-11-03.

The address is the decision's IRI and does not change. The record is as of . To cite one part, add its anchor to the address: #what-it-was-for, #what-was-known, #what-was-done, #what-followed, #impact, #capital, #parties. How to cite · Corrections

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